Thursday, 24 March 2016

Nick Blackwell vs Chris Eubank Jnr

Hi all,

I am looking forward to this fight for two reasons.

One is because Nick Blackwell is one of my current favourite fights and secondly, because the odd's on this match-up are just ridiculous imo.

Blackwell can be had at around 8.70 on Pinnacle, which is laughable.

I can not believe just how short Chris Eubank Jnr's (CEJ) price is for this fight.

I was expected him to be around 1.30 on the Exchange, to see him at virtually half that price instead is just insanity.

Now here is why:

In his last fight he fough Gary O'Sullivan. Even O'Sullivan wasn't such an underdog if I remember correctly. His last few results flattered him (although he does punch hard!).

I watch a lot of boxing and I would lke to think I am adept enough at knowing what style beat's what, how certain boxer's will fight, if they can adapt, skills etc etc.

Let's break it down further.

Nick Blackwell didn't have any amateur experience. He was throwin in the deep-end for his career, many times fighting on short notice and against fighters far better, experiene, proper promotor's behind them etc.

He fought Martin Murray in his 9th pro fight, who has had  4 world title shots. He fought BJS in his 14th fight and that was a bit closer then the official scorecards (imo), he pushed him hard later on in that fight. BJS is now the WBO Middleweight champion of the world.

Blackwell has also fought Max Bursak - who will be fighting BJS next. In that fight he dropped Bursak away from home and imo was robbed as he won that fight. I think quite a lot of people agree on that, against my opinion.

Bursak is/was European level at least and fringe world level.

Blackwell also won against John Ryder vs TKO about 3 fight's ago. He was being outboxed but started to come on strong, again he was against a very good technical boxer. Ryder also lost to BJS but by a wafer thin decision. I personally had Ryder winning that fight by 1 round, however it was that close, you could argue for either fighter or it being a draw.

Ryder and BJS both have better technical ability then CEJ and Blackwell beat one and was competitive against the other winning rounds. In only his 14th pro fight remember (against BJS).

Blackwell is a better, younger fighter then O'Sullivan, he has done nothing but improve and now has a proper team, trains full-time and has Gary Lockett in his corner - who I do rate as a decent trainer.

Why does all this matter?

Whilst I know the 'triangle theory' in boxing doesn't always work, we can analyse styles and results together, if you look at it objectively.

Eubank Jnr is not BJS. He lost virtually all of the first 6 rounds against him and again, imo the fight was a little wider then the final judges scorecards, should not have been a split decision. CEJ is not a technical boxer.

He doesn't have the boxing ability BJS has or Ryder and Blackwell still managed to win rounds vs BJS and Ryder before winning by T/KO.

I don't rate Jnr as a boxer, he is more of a brawler/puncher but he does have good athletic upper body movement. However he is wild and open quite often.

Considering O'Sullivan threw not  a lot of punches in their fight and was pretty stationary, I was surprised to see CEJ (Chris Eubank Jnr) blowing fairly heavily around round 5 as he threw a lot of punches - too many. To be fair to him, his recovery power is/was excellent and he wasn't as tired as first appeared, however he likes to fight at his pace and that fight suited him perfectly.

He in general does not like to fight at a high pace.

Nick Blackwell will almost certainly push him hard from rounds 5-6 onwards (I expect it to go the distance by the way). He is a better boxer  then O'Sullivan and CEJ just isn't that much better in the boxing department then Blackwell.

Blackwell's last two fight's were not his best performances, at all.

Against Damon Jones he was being outboxed, however once again he started to come on strong and it proved to be the case. He ended up knocking out Jones. Jones whilst showing some lovely boxing, clearly didn't have the power to hold off Blackwell and also started to tire quite a lot.

Blackwell against Arnfield, ate uppercuts for fun. This is one of CEJ's best shot's imo. He must not allow these to land at a regular rate in this fight and for CEJ this is the shot, imo, that he should look to try and land, hard and early if he want's to get Blackwell's respect and make him think twice about pressuring.

If Blackwell can get his jab going, he will cause CEJ a lot of problems. CEJ seems to deal with a good jab with about the same ability as Carl Froch, which isn't great.

However, if he negates his jab, it will be a lot lot harder to win this fight.

Regardless, given the above, I cannot see how his price can be @ 8.70+ on Pinnacle or even on the Exchanges. Give the hype around CEJ I fully expected Blackwell to be around 4.00-5.00 on Betfair as I knew CEJ would be priced up as a heavy favourite. I would of taken Blackwell on even at 5s, but at 5s+ it's just too out of line with where his price should be.

Considering who Blackwell has faced and how he has faired. I just can't see how his price can be what it is.

I'm not saying Blackwell will win, however I am confident this fight will be closer then the odds. At the prices quoted, Blackwell as match winner/outright winner is absolutely the value pick for me in this matchup.

Blackwell is available at 6s on Bet365 for anyone without access to pinnaclesports and will be around 8s-9 on Betfair.

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Long time no update - Blogabet Feb/March Update!

Hi all,

It's once again been practically a month since my last update.

Blogabet results are going well, I am now currently standing at +148 units profit for a 7% Yield over 1050 picks.

After a slow start to the year, things have definitely picked up in February. I had a really good week last week for the Indian Wells event, as the Masters event's tend to be quite tight for finding value but there were quite a lot of decent matches to find it.

I do expect the profit to slow down sooner rather then later, it's been a nice upswing however I'm always looking to prepare for the next inevitable down swing. Hopefully it won't be just around the corner, however you never know!

In sad news, I will be selling my gaming laptop soon as still looking to move to a new home, hopefully sooner rather then later. Normally I would not even consider selling a gaming computer, however it's a luxury at this point in time, rather have the money to go towards the house for when we move.

I'm a little more happy with  blogabet at the moment, I've had a few customers who seem happy with the service and have been following me for the last few months, with no complaint's or moans about the downswings (Thanks guys!). I always try to keep them updated now and again of what I'm up to. I have really appreciated no one getting on my back when I had a poor run of results with the bad variance. Clearly they know what to expect and I think it helps that I have made this clear on my blogabet page.

Less gaming time means more time doing other things, hopefully more time writing some more meaninful blog posts for starters!

Friday, 12 February 2016

January & February Update + Blogabet update

Hi all,

Well, what a rollercoaster of a start to the new season. Ever heard of Alton Towers, heard of the ride Oblivion? You know, the one with the near vertical drop?

Yea that one. Well I might as well have based my results on that ride to the start of the new season!

January was horrific, I can't remember the exact figure but I believe I hit -38 or-40 units of profit in January alone! The month ended at a -20 units loss.

I was originally going to make a post about a week ago, complaining about my betting life and how cruel the variance gods had been etc etc. I guess I just wanted to make myself feel a bit better!

Anyway, after repeatedly telling myself it was just variance, despite knowing this, the results have had a remarkable turn around so far, as I write this, I am currently +20 units in profit for the start of February, two bad results today though meant I once again have not broken the 100+ profit barrier..yet!

T.Babos serving for the match and losing and R.Bautista-Agut losing from having 5 match points. Ha, I laugh in the face of such adversity! Why? Because results like this were happening on a daily basis for the last 4 weeks, today was a cakewalk after a good week of results.

To sum up January:

This is how I felt in January.

And this... how I'm feeling at the start of February.

Blogabet results currently stand at +95 units of profit with a yield of +6%, this is currently based on 805 results from my paid service.

Now onto my spreadsheet, below is a graph of the overall results, I have now recorded just over 1900 results, that's something like 500 picks I recorded in January alone I believe. Mainly grandslam matches, qualifying matches for that event and Challenger events.

February I haven't recorded as much with the other tours, especially Challenger, it's been a bit too time intensive at the moment to record Challenger games, on top of having to handle 5 ATP + WTA tours, posting picks and updating results. That's without my other work I do.

See that big rise and fall, that was practically done by men's results in the Aussie Open. I've had a worry that my model may not calculate 5 set matches accurately enough, I still need more data but so far I'm not instilled with the confidence I have with other results I have recorded.

WTA results however were positive for the aussie open. As always, I'll be gathering more data and probably waiting until the US Open before I get involved with WTA Picks, possibly I may venture itno them for Wimbledon.

From what I've seen, favourites tend to be under-priced in grandslam events so far. I'll continue my work and see what crops up a bit further in to the season.

That's about it for now, oh, I have started to trade again - based on my picks actually. I'm taking it nice and slow though to begin with, 1st set only in matches, however I am not having anywhere near the mental breakdown of  before when it comes to chucking money into a trade, when it goes wrong.

It's been very refreshing, however I have said this before only to implode so I'm just going to see how I get on for the next 2 months then post where I'm at with that side of things.

Next week I'm away for a relaxing weekend with my Fiancee and dog. I'll be taking my laptop so I can post picks for my service, however I intend to just be doing that so I actually spend a bit of time off the damn thing for once!

Until the next post!

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Blogabet update and overall results update (Non-blogabet)

Whilst I have a bit of spare time this evening, it made sense to do an update as I did not get chance to this weekend.

First of all, I have been incredibly busy this week, I have made some big change to my spreadsheet where I record all of my results. I finally managed to scrap all of the tabs/worksheets that I had for each tour and surface (there were over 15 of them..).

I now have one worksheet and I can now filter all of my results by tour, surface, event etc.

I still have some more implementation to add to the spreadsheet and it still isn't where I want it to be. For storing and reviewing my results, it is now streamlined and that's the most important thing for me at this point in time. I still have the ability to filter my results, including by odds and also in combination with odds that the model gives, as well as the above filters. That alone is now brilliant that I can do all of this from one worksheet.

Why is this brilliant? I can now enter all of my data so much quicker, no swapping between worksheets anymore. I can also now combine tours together or surfaces for different tours, multiple combinations to look at.

The only issue I'm having is getting the graph to stay in a certain place on my spreadsheet. Whenever I filter, it automatically updates my graph with the filters I have applied.

The boring stuff out of the way, here's some example's before I go onto my blogabet results.


ATP + WTA Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)

ATP Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)

WTA Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)

WTA Clay Surface Only (No filters, except Clay Surface)

As you can see, it's not plain sailing.

Which brings me onto blogabet.

My blogabet result's for this month have been disappointing, no two ways about it.

I am currently on +59 Units of profit for a +4% Yield, I'm currently down -36 units for this month.

Not a great start as you can see, however I am still positive for the year ahead. I must state that my overall results differ to my blogabet results, as for my blogabet picks I do apply two certain filters. 

Whilst I'm on the subject of blogabet, I'm a little bit disappointed in how the payment system works. Not only do users get a free month if they don't make profit (fair enough, I understand why sites or people do that), it's the fact that blogabet take a 'cut' of your earnings for that month. Also fair enough, right?

What isn't fair is when you have to give out refunds if a subscriber asks for one, that refund doesn't come back out of the cut blogabet takes. I'll give an example to simplify it.

Let's say I have two subscribers at 25euro's each as let's say thats my fee. That gives me 50euros in revenue for that month, however if later on they ask for a refund after having a negative month, blogabet refund them the money but they still take the 30% cut for that revenue range (the cut get's smaller as your monthly revenue increases).

My point is, not only would I be losing 30% to blogabet in the above example, that's before the refund, so effectively you'll be losing money. There's then a refund fee you have to pay also on top of that.

The cut should only be based on revenue you actually keep after refunds in my opinion. It's kind of leaving a sour taste in my mouth at the minute and I'm seriously contemplating leaving blogabet at some point in the near future and just posting my daily picks (ALL of them, no filters), into a Excel spreadsheet that anyone (limited to a certain number of people) can access once I have placed my bets. This would be free.

If I do decide to go this route, then I will update the sheet two times a day ideally, with new picks. I would keep the standardised timings I use at the minute.

The one thing I really enjoy about blogabet is that your picks get verified, if I move off the site, there's no way to verify the odds I record at, I guess I would just need to leave it down to users to see if they can get on at the odds that I publish still.

Anyway, that's enough from me for now, in my next post I'll find something else to talk about. I'll next give an update on my overall results in my spreadsheet in a month or two's time.

I'm also now recording Challenger Events, ATP & WTA Qualifiers and will be looking at Women's ITF tournaments time permitting. Streamlining the spreadsheet has allowed me to record so much more, much quicker. 

Thursday, 7 January 2016

Mental stability

I thought now would be a good time to create a new post.

The start of this season has been brutal so far, or has it?

I'm currently down -30units (2 units used on every bet I've ever posted on blogabet), for this month so far.

This has basically wiped out my profit for the ATP bets from last year. The variance has been horrible, just yesterday I noticed every single favourite won, so from 14/14. I put odds in based off pinnacle in an accumulator calculator as I was interested in seeing what the odds of this happening would of been offered, the odds of that happening came to just under 43.00

With myself trying to console myself a bit, I relooked over my results for some kind of comfort. Now that I am gathering an ever expanding sample size, the bad results don't look so bad in comparison.

I currently filter my results for my blogabet picks, I could post a lot more but the variance would be even bigger and for now I'm happy filtering them for the site.

So the first thing I have done is put my current average odds, current winrate and another variable into the variance simulator to once again see how bad a bad run can be. It is very possible for me to run breakeven or even losing over a 1000 bets, I tried over 5000 bet sample size and it came out profitable everytime (atleast over the amount of simulations I ran anyway!). However it made me realise (more then I paid attention to beforehand), just how long a period I could actually run bad for.

Secondly, now I have a much bigger sample size of results in my overall results database/spreadsheet since 2014 (not including 2013s results), I decided to take a look at the results again.

Based on a £10k bank with a £100 betsize, on the WTA with no filters applied, I would of hit a huge -£3700 loss before I even made a dime, just to note, I don't have a 10k bank for the WTA! Although that's my goal for each tour once I finally get my house this year.

It now currently stands at £4000 profit and it's currently at it's highest peak. It took over 400 bets before it even hit breakeven.

If I had started a few hundred bets ago, it would of seemed like I was just coining money in for fun as there has been a huge upswing, which is why I love the variance simulator. It bring's your expectations back into line, depending what point in time you start off at, can vastly change how much you make or lose. However as the sample size get's bigger, you form a clearer picture of just how successful or unsuccessful your bets are.

The ATP overall results, again with no filters, same bet size as above, I started off in profit virtually from the start, I hit a small -£500 loss, but within 70 bets I was in profit.

It has hit a peak of just over £5000 profit and currently sits at £2700 profit. However if I had started at the peak recording the results, it would seem like the model does horrible as I would of been down -£3000.

This year I will record well over 1500 bet's without any filters. I am also streamlining my spreadsheet with the help of a online friend, this will hopefully happen very soon (by the end of this week if a solution is implemented). This will allow me to input data about 3-5x quicker, I'll be recording Challengers and most likely ITF events from next week.

This will give me an even bigger sample size to work with from the model, I'm hoping by the end of the year I will have recorded well over 3000 bets from ATP/WTA (Including Qualifiers) and also Challenger tours. The sample size will be even bigger if I combine ITF also.

If the spreadsheet streamlining works, I will be able to filter all my results off one page of data with different variables, which will save me so so much time! At the minute I have to keep different tours and surfaces in different worksheets, which is a lot of work to maintain.

The next step after that, will be finding a way to automate the results and odds capturing from games, in a manner that works for me.

If there's one thing I need to make sure I'm doing at the start of the season. Then it's just not looking at the results as the matches are played! Bad habit I have got back into for the start of the season, rather then just checking the majority of results at the end of the day.

Saturday, 2 January 2016

2016 Season Begins!

The new 2016 Tennis season is finally amongst us!

It's been a boring wait, for me atleast, for this to come around. I always find it a drag from the end of the main tour in November until the beginning of the new year.

I haven't posted for quite some time, longer then I realised. I'll be going back to my weekly updates, now that the season is starting again.

Unfortunately, we lost one of our tennis bloggers in Sammy, who's blog is on this page. He feel's like what was working for him before in the market's, are no longer working. I wish him all the best in his next adventure.

For myself, I have been busy updating my betting spreadsheet. Which is still not where I want it to be at all, but I added some more functionality to it for myself. January will be an interesting start to the season, to see which players improve and which fall down the pecking order

I've also added the matched betting blog, to my list of blogs I read, mainly for anyone who is interested in creating free profits, or building a bankroll. It's a very easy to navigate site, with a forum full of active users. Hopefully some readers find this useful.

I'll have my first update at the end of the next week for my own betting, as well as talking about the start of the season, whilst also hopefully finding some new content to talk about.

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Value - When should you take it?

Value - When should you take it?

Majority of people will of heard the term 'value' when it comes to betting, or trading, or Poker for that matter.

What I used to debate in the past with a few people was, when should you take Value?

Some people said, only when the edge is big enough in your favour. Well, what constitutes to 'big enough' and why only when it's 'big enough?'

I used to think similarly along these lines when I was still quite new to learning HUSNG's, however once I started to talk to better players, there answer was, if there is value - take it.

Some people disagree with this, however if your not taking value, regardless of small it is, your essentially losing opportunities to make money in the long-term.

I have seen many a player and bettor in the past, who would miss opportunities by saying the value is too thin. I've often questioned that, because if you believe there is value, you should be seizing the opportunity, regardless if your perceived edge is 1% or 10%.

The real issue in my opinion, is being aware of how bad the variance can be. The smaller the edge, the 'harder' the variance.

I think this is why some people are put off by taking spots where value is perceived to be smaller then in other situations, as they either can't quantify how often they will be successful, or can't deal with the losing runs.

If they can't quantify how often they are successful, it can often be down to not recording results (betting/trading), or not having a big enough sample size.

Two interesting links below, one is a short article on variance and the other is a variance calculator, which can give you an idea of how different samples can vary depending on the inputs.

Variance in Sports Betting

Variance Simulator

I try to emphasise on my blogabet page, that people have to expect losing periods. Basically you could easily have two tipsters whose models or knowledge would produce, hypothetically having an edge that equates to 5% ROI in the long run, both who start at the same time, but over the same X amount of bet's, could have drastically different results.

I know this may be simple knowledge to more experience bettors, but I think it's an area of knowledge that a lot of bettors or players are not aware of.