Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Below is from my database which shows the current entire profit since the beginning of doing the picks..this shows 94, 2 of these have currently not been played yet, so it's actually 92 in total.
I have not added the picks I put in the last post into the database yet, will wait until they've been played then add them in most likely.
So this doesn't look all that great right? Only a -£100 profit not good right! Or is that wrong?
Let's delve a little deeper..
This is how the result's look since the criteria change from the 20/07/13 up until today 31/07/13
So now it shows since the criteria change just over +£200 profit..still doesn't look great right, surely that's only a negligible difference? Right? Or is that wrong?
Now if we break things down even further..let's see what odd ranges have been making money, what have been losing money.
Overall I'd like to have a 6%+ ROI in the long-term.
So now let's look at the odds breakdown..
Now if you take a closer look at the screenshot, you will see the different odd ranges that I have punched in, that give a breakdown of the Profit & Loss for those ranges.
1.01 - 3 odds range, is showing a £656 profit so far over 52 picks.
1.01 - 5 odds range, is showing a profit of £800 so far over 83 picks.
Now if we look at 4-5 odds I have made £562 profit over just 8 bet's WOW RIGHT? Woahhh..hold on to your horses there a second!
As you can see it's only 8 bet's and my ROI is ridiculous, like 70%.
So if those odds ranges are showing a decent profit, the 1.01 - 3 & 1.01 - 5 so far..why the hell am I down -£100 you ask? Well it's simple..let's have a look at odds 5-7 (Never had a bet where the odds have been higher then 7 yet).
As we can see in the highlighted area, I have so far done 9 picks on odds over 5 and have had ZERO WINNERS - Which has cost me -£900 so far. As you can see, that's what's cost me a profit so far.
This isn't to say that this odd range won't be profitable in the long-run, it just means that I haven't got near enough bet's in this range yet to give me any kind of idea if it's actually a money maker or money loser..I could say that for all the odds ranges so far, but if I picked randomly I'd expect to be losing money now for sure.
The point is, yes, the overall profit line is poor at the moment, but when we look into thing's deeper we can start to look at the 'real picture'. If I had placed no bet's over 5.0, I'd be in £800 profit so far. The fact is thought, I have placed those bet's and I am in a small loss so far, but it will only take 2 winner's at those odds in the next 4 picks of them to be in a healthy profit position.
Until the end of the season, I won't realistically have a decent idea of whether or not that is going to be a losing range..I may still not even know by the end of the season..however what I will be able to tell is, the odd ranges lower down where there more picks whether they ARE winning ranges, and that is crucial to the success of my betting for the future.
Hopefully this has been an interesting post, and it gives a little insight into why you shouldn't get yourself down on the overall line or profit or loss you've made, without investigating things further, it also stresses the importance of record keeping.
TO BE UPDATED - Put Watson back in..Apologies my mistake agqin.
Al Kuznetsov @ 5.80 (-£100)
Karatantcheva @ 6.20 (-£100)
Razzano @ 2.85 (+£185)
Riske @ 2.79 (-£100)
Garcia @ 5.91 (-£100)
Matosevic @ 5.18 (+£418) <-- First winner out of 12 over odds of 5.00
Haase @ 2.97 (+£197)
Thiem @ 3.49 (-£100)
Watson @ 2.77 (-£100)
Spat out 4 picks which are over odds of 5.0..will this finally be the time a winner or two pops up?
Garcia and Karantancheva both looks big prices considering how there respective opponent's can play at time's (Stosur & Makarova). Speaking of which, Makarova was 1-4 down and Bouchard had a breakpoint to make it 1-5 to her..ofcourse she never won a game after that game in the set, and went on to only win another 2 game's in the entire match..sigh.
Going to be making another very minor adjustment to the picks from Friday's picks onwards! Hopefully this will smooth out the process, give me a little less picks but should increase the S/R & return of profits a bit more.
I will be doing a post shortly giving a breakdown of the results so far.
TO BE UPDATED:-
Malisse @ 3.05 (-£100)
S.Groth @ 6.20 (-£100)
Lukas Lacko @ 2.34 (-£100)
M.Fish @ 1.86 (+£86)
Hayek @ 1.91 (-£100)
Haider-Maurer @ 4.54 (-£100)
Wow..what a super bad evening/day so far..could not be any worse the last 4-5 days so far.
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
Going to post a P/L breakdown tomorrow..and yes the figures are actually deceivingly good so far!
Overall I am only up a small profit..but I have had 7 bets (I think) over odds of 5.0 and zero winners.
Checking my query in my spreadsheet, from odds of 1.01 - 4.9 I have made £1200 profit over 67 selections..now this will change quite drastically tonight as I have bet's in place so will most likely drop down..maybe even down to £600, but the point is I've not had a winner of 5.0+ yet which is probably why the P/L looks worse then it actually should be..again, variance and such..it evens out in the long run!
I've had a pretty torrid time since Saturday with Match points not being converted in my matches 0/5 when the underdog was in a winning position. Kevin Anderson failing to convert 0/11 breakpoints vs Isner obviously compounded matters!
Bla bla bla less waffle..the point is I am quietly confident (LOL Sample size!) that I will be making money long term..It's unlikely I will have many bet's over 5.0 now, as my tweaked criteria doesn't throw hardly any up, however I am quietly confident that once I get to around the 300+ pick mark, that I will be showing both a healthy and decent profit/ROI from the beginning, and even better profit/ROI since I made the selection/criteria changes..all I've got to do now is stay patient, and give it another 2 months, to gave enough results that should (hopefully), push me over that 300 bet's barrier!
Monday, 29 July 2013
L.Mayer @ 3.77 (+£277)
Larcher De Brito @ 3.74 (-£100)
Voegele @ 2.2 (-£100)
Cibulkova @ 2.16
Thiem @ 4.89 (+£389)
Sunday, 28 July 2013
Anyhow, here are the picks and results for the last few days I have been doing them and for today. Tomorrow's will be up later tonight.
Bedene @ 3.28 (-£100)
Hanescu @ 2.05 (+£105)
Majeric @ 2.74 (-£100)
Hanescu @ 2.47 (-£100)
Linette 5.1 (-£100)
Haase @ 2.51 (+£151)
Monfils @ 2.68 (-£100)
Hewitt @ 2.18 (-£100)
Harrison @ 3.23 (-£100)
Anderson @ 2.14 (-£100)
Thursday, 25 July 2013
If anyone wishes to follow my progress then I will link to my profile on there once I placed over 10 bet's on the website (Have to place 10 bet's before it comes public).
I will still post about how my picks are doing ofcourse and in betting/trading in general daily (:
Thanks to everyone for continuing to read!
Wednesday, 24 July 2013
To be updated:-
Dushevina @ 3.85 (+£285)
Peer @ 2.60 (+£160)
Bedene @ 2.73 (+£173)
Haider-Maurer @ 2.73 (-£100)
Hanescu @ 2.07 (+£107)
Delbonis @ 2.11 (-£100)
Youhzny @ 2.90 (+£190)
Gibbs is also tomorrow, but on one of my previous posts, will update that one when the match is over.
Since I began doing the picks exactly two week's ago, here's the low-down / break-down / smack-down, whatever way down you want to call it..that's a little misleading since it actually hasn't really been low-down..erm... yea anyway let's continue..
Over 55 picks (57 in total, but two out-standing still), they have produced so far:-
Since the new criteria (mainly for reducing the amount of high odd matches, nothing else much has changed) there has been 20 picks, these have produced so far :-
Now this is where it get's much more interesting!
Here's a very basic qry page..I say basic, but some guy I know is designing it for me and this has all been done today, so it's a long way off to completion or looking snazzy n jazzy, bells and whistles and chocolate bit's on top!
With this query I can basically break down the odds range into what ranges I want, this give's me a more detailed breakdown of where I'm either making or losing money.
In the screenshot below, the most important odd ranges for me, are 1.01 - 2.00, 2 -3 and 1.01 - 3.00
The screenshot below shows other odd ranges that I just had a play around with, to show what the P/L is like.
So far out of all the picks since the start, odd ranges 1.01 - 2 and 1.01 - 3.00 are showing a profit..yes I am WELL AWARE that I need way more picks, but the point is this will allow me to breakdown the results further in a months or two time and start to see what kind of odd ranges are losing money, and which are making money. I want to start betting from January 1st 2014 on the tennis, and so this information should surely help me before the end of the season.
I should note this is a WORK IN PROGRESS, so some of the bug's need ironing out and such still, for example Total Profit (Label needs changing!) for odd range 5-6 shows ZERO when it should in fact be £-500, that column needs fixing in that records, but everything else seems to tally up right now (:
Tuesday, 23 July 2013
Short post, picks for weds/thurs:-
TO BE UPDATED
Gibbs @ 3.81 (-£100)
Garcia-Lopez @ 3.48 (-£100)
Youhzny @ 1.71 (+£71)
An Kuznetsov @ 3.17 (-£100)
Michael Russell @ 2.16 (+£116)
That'll do for Wednesday, I will wait until Wednesday evening until I do Thursday's picks, it's quite hard to do them in the evening at the moment because the matches are so disjointed all over the place currently!
Monday, 22 July 2013
Anyhow I shall give a breakdown on Weds as to where I currently am for trading and the picks..remember the picks are a very long-term aim, so I'm thinking of 100s before I can start to see if there making a profit or loss, however the trading I'm looking at slightly shorter time-frame but still on a monthly basis seeing how I'm doing.
Picks for tomorrow:-
TO BE UPDATED
Few close picks for Atlanta, but just didn't quite make the cut.
Looking at the other tournaments now.
Laaksonen @ 3.66 (-£100)
Crivoi @ 3.42(-£100)
Delbonis @ 2.24 (+124)
Hlackova @ 2.31 (-£100)
Voskoboeva @ 1.73 (+£73)
No more picks for this post!
Sunday, 21 July 2013
Pick for tomorrow:-
TO BE UPDATED
Veic @ 3.93 (£-100)
Haider-Maurer @ 2.90 (+£190)
Govortsova @ 2.89 (+£189)
Jabeur @ 2.07 (+£107)
Majeric @ 4.19 (+£319)
Rajeev Ram @ 2.42(-£100)
Henych @ 3.92 (-£100)
Saturday, 20 July 2013
Currently including all the old picks the S/R is 34.21%..realistically this needs to be more around 40+ mark imo. Current profit is £-139 which isn't actually THAT bad over 38 picks that I've plucked out so far, so can't really complain, onwards and upwards and hopefully be in a decent profit by the end of the tennis season, although if it's a loss it's fine also, as long as it helps me learn and adjust and get me analyzing the figures, maybe even finding other profitable areas? Then it's all good!
I will be trading again from Monday onwards but since I was roughly breakeven anyway with the tennis I will probably just half the bank and start from £200 as I want to just strictly only follow my strategies I have laid out. I know the strategies are profitable from trading the rest of the year already and viewing my P/L, my only issue is when I veer from them I cause myself issues.
I'm halfing my bank also because if I'm being honest, I don't need £400 as a starting bank - £200 is mroe then enough and I'd rather put £200 away saved up towards my holiday in October.
Hlavackova @ 2.3 (+£130)
Almagro @ 1.7 (-£100)
Falla @ 2.93 (+£193)
Tomorrow's Picks (Sunday) - TO BE UPDATED
Pospisil @ 2.82 (-£100)
Delbonis @ 3.10 (£-100)
Friday, 19 July 2013
Just had a look at my database, from the 16th to the 17th I had a run of 9 consecutive losses! Out of my last 19 picks I've had 3 winner's and the last 5 picks have all just lost in a row, lovely :D
Even the horses have been failing miserably for the past few days, I think out of the last 25 or so picks, I've had about 3 winner's there also and a lot have been at reasonable odds, so is quite frustrating..but I'll just keep plugging away for now.
The benefits of recording the results are after I hit the magical 200 picks mark, I can at least take a look to see if certain odd ranges have been more profitable then others or not, not only that I can see where the underdog's have taken a set, so if the favourite is winning 2-1 for example relatively often it could actually be potentially profitable to bet 2-1 on matches that get spat out via my little program and calcs! So even if it run's a loss (which I said at the beginning most likely they won't be profitable but only time and picks will tell! (: ), if it opens up other potential avenues for the future then it's well worth it, even so just for the experience.
I may also change the way I choose the picks after 200-300 if there not providing a profit, because I do have another little avenue that I wish to try and explore and see if they will be profitable that way..which I actually have a feeling they may well be, but first of all I need to set up an excel spreadsheet for that as my access database doesn't currently have the information I'd need to be able to do it yet.
Again no trading at the moment, will make a decent go at it from next week onwards again.
I HAVE CHANGED THE WAY TO PICKS ARE PICKED E.G THE SELECTION CRITERIA HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY.
Picks for tomorrow (TO BE UPDATED)
Hlavackova @ 2.3
Almagro @ 1.76
Falla @ 2.93
Thursday, 18 July 2013
Wednesday, 17 July 2013
Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Few things to point out. Even though the horses say over £-160, I am actually only about £-6 down on them for the month so far..only started following some tipster picks last Tuesday, I use a different account also (not Betfair) to normally place my selections, so obviously only being £-6 down overall, there is a profit showing in that account!
However the figure I'm really interested in showing is only the Tennis.
As you can see in the screenshot below I started out relatively well..it's the last 3-4 trades..the £-102 is where I just imploded really..a lesson well learnt, you can see the other -£60 loss I talked about on the Isner game in an earlier post about leaving 2 lays in..wow I really fucked up last week to be brutally honest! You can also see I actually haven't traded since the 12th, nice little break and I've been happy doing the picks. Anyway, to keep things more exciting on the blog, I will start to trade again and talk a bit about the matches..I also said I'd post some articles which I intend on doing, it's just getting the time.
I think it'll be interesting also to post a video of me trading, maybe a few actually. First of all I need to go back over my strategies/models (Actually have them written down now), and JUST FOLLOW THEM. Without veering from them for an entire month..I think one of the issues is I also trade on instinct since I've been doing it for a while, I can clearly see value entries but often I am not sure about where my exit is..why? no strategy. Therefore it's time to make some adjustment's, to be quite honest I've been hot and cold not all year, but at the start definitely I was a mess, then I've been okay the last 3 months now wavered again. If it's one thing that you need to do in this game, it is analyze and study the figures. That's what I intend to start doing more.
Anyway, enough text-babble.
Until the next..more interesting post? (:
Pereira @ 2.43 (-£100)
Parra Santonja @ 5.23 (-£100)
Golubic @ 2.77(-£100)
Jan Hajek @ 4.54 (+£354)
Haase @ 4.05 (-£100)
Berlocq @ 1.82 (+82)
Kavcic @ 6.05 (-£100)
Both haase and kavcic are pretty much borderline..for the time being I'm going to allow these kind of picks onto the list, but I may well adjust the cut off price that I use up a little bit to make the picks a bit more selective..I'll give it to around 150-200 picks first, and if it isn't showing a decent enough profit or a small loss then I will tighten the selection process up to be more stringent.
Results for today will be posted later on after the last game of the evening, so far not the greatest day at all. Hopefully I'll get a winner the last match of today (Malisse), to keep me in profit so far until the sample size get's big enough ;)
Results so far today (and it's been a bad one overall for me! With just 2 out of 15 selections for my tennis and horse racing that have been winner's today!). Got to take the rough with the smooth I suppose (:
Teliana Pereira @ 2.63(+£163)
Salamanca @ 6.49 (£-100)
Malisse @ 1.91 (£-100)
Golubev @ 4.93 (£-100)
Beluccia @ 2.49 (£-100)
Montanes @ 2.18 (£-100)
Shahar Peer @ 3.49 (£-100)
Some pretty woeful performances overall today.
If Malisse win's the match that he's playing now (currently 1-1 in set's), then I will be up £114 still overall over 22 selections thus far..considering how poor today's been overall I'd be quite happy with that! If he loses, then it will show around a £-77 loss I think..my database will tell me all anyway, this is why I'm thinking about dropping the borderline picks and being more selective but at the expense of a fewer picks..probably from after tomorrow onwards that's what I will do..as I've already posted the haase + kavcic picks..they will ofcourse stay.
Update:- Malisse played pretty woeful..just looked like he really didn't care that much to be there, even in the 2nd set he won 6-3, it was more a case of Falla failing on his serve then Malisse taking the set away from him..
That leaves the picks currently at £-77 over 22 picks, still very early day's yet though, the lowest point has been nearly £-400 loss, anyhow, keeping it up and I'll see if tomorrow's matches fair a little (a lot) better!
Will have some more 'exciting' things to post in the next post..posting pick updates is kind of boring for readers!
Sunday, 14 July 2013
Teliana Pereira @ 2.63 (Tuesday)
Salamanca @ 6.49 (Tuesday)
Malisse @ 1.91 (Tuesday)
Golubev @ 4.93 (Tuesday)
Beluccia @ 2.49 (Tuesday)
Montanes @ 2.18 (Tuesday)
Shahar Peer @ 3.49 (Tuesday)
No picks for Today (Monday)
Hewitt beat Isner 2-1.
Carlos Berlocq won in straight set's and Meusburger lost 2-1 to Halep - Had the advantage of serving first in the 3rd but couldn't hold serve.
So results are:-
Hewitt @ 2.33 (+£133)
Meusburger @ 5.45 (-£100)
Berlocq @ 3.79 (+279)
If I have totalled everything up correctly, then so far the picks have produced £360 profit on £100 level stakes. Would actually be more if I had managed to pick up 2 matches I did check up on however they were already in-play so obviously couldn't count them towards the overall profit/loss.
Picks will be up later on this evening - I need to sort out my timezone on blogger as everypost except my last one has been based on Pacific Daylight time...
Now for the news, haven't traded at all today, in total I'm only £+25 up for it (screenshot to come on Tuesday after exactly one weeks trading). Really could of and should of done some today, but quite glad I just relaxed today. Horse racing profit (not on Betfair..well I do use it a little bit to place some of my orders) is not big at all, maybe £10-20 which is what I'm going to check on now and update..saying that it's only been about 3 days in so long way to go yet.
Until the next post.
Victor Hanescu @ 3.45 (£-100)
Meusburger @ 2.03 (£+103)
Estrella Cabeza-Candela @ 5.96 (-£100)
Cambeza-Candela came close'ish just wasn't however to put it together after the first set and hold serve well enough.
Picks picked for tomorrow so far:-
Carlos Berlocq @ 3.79
Meusburger @ 5.45
May be another to come but need to wait for the newport final to be done, Monday's matches will be posted tomorrow evening hopefully. After a couple hundred picks, will have a look through to see if there are specific odd ranges not being profitable, or if some are more profitable. If it becomes the case I have made profit over certain odd ranges and others have lost money then I know I will be making progress! Still a long way to go yet! Hopefully by the end of this month I may be able to get up to either near 100 picks in total or just over. Depends how many get thrown up.
On a side note, I finished DKC 101%..onto DKC2 tomorrow, my life is now complete.
Saturday, 13 July 2013
Well it's come up anyway after some calcs so..
Lleyton Hewitt @ 2.33
DKC evening is Donkey Kong Country! Yes that's right the classic SNES platformer.
My goal is to beat DKC 1,2&3 all with the maximum % possible in each, yes I am that sad, however I am near the end of finishing all the levels in DKC 1, so after that it'll just be completing all the levels by finding all the bonus rooms..quite looking forward to it, and it kills time whilst I'm waiting for my girlfriend to finish work in the evening.
Here's a little video of a level in DKC I fondly remembered as a kid, yes I know it's not trading related but keeps thing's amusing (at least for me!)
Unless you use the shortcut in this level it is pretty hard with the snow falling very heavy adding to the disorientation...ah memories, what a brilliant series!
More picks tomorrow hopefully, I think I'm staying away from qualifiers for next weeks tournaments just due to the fact probably wouldn't be able to get money on realistically but I'll see.
Friday, 12 July 2013
Picks for the 13/07/13 are:-
Victor Hanescu @ 3.45
Meusburger @ 2.03
Estrella Cabeza-Candela @ 5.96
That's all for tomorrow, let's see how I get on tomorrow..I'm about £40-50 up on the tennis since starting now which is arghh, but my own fault, wasted loads of profit tonight but still..up with a profit, so head down back to the grind for this weekend and next week.
At the moment, I can't not seem to pick a game which doesn't go to 40-40 or 30-30 multiple times then DOESN'T GO - A-40 or 40-30..I just want a sniff of a breakpoint but nope..the players are not obliging currently for me! Should mention my stake now have risen to £27.50 of betfair's finest liability.
For the picks for yesterday/today, well Michael Russell one and that bought me to £-61 in total, here's todays results from picks posted yesterday (or just after midnight today/this morning).
Kovinic had chances to win but lost £-100
Meusburger won nicely so £+170
Hanescu won so £+136
That takes me to £145 profit after 9 picks I think..on laptop and not my PC so don't have access to my database and I'm too lazy to look through my other posts at the moment!
As I write this I left 2 lays is on the Isner game which have been gobbled up so I now have a £62 liability(and most likely loss..sigh). Thats yesterdays profit wiped out in one foul swoop..time to stop for the day..
Victor Hanescu @ 2.36.
Again these are me just paper trading and putting them out here, there not actually for anyone to follow, so if anyone did, you would do so blindly and at your own risk!
Whilst were on the subject, Michale Russell pick came in, but he hit 1.03 and then went out to around 10s at one point after hitting 1.03. If he had lost that match I would of been looking at a £-427 loss so far I believe over just a couple of picks which is always good for the confidence ;). As such though, he managed to win in a long drawn out affair which means after a total of 6 picks so far I am currently £-61 (DAMN YOU HLACKOVA!). I'm hoping before the end of the tennis season I can maybe collate around 200-300 picks as a minimum..anywhere above 300+ would be very nice though mind you! :)
Till the next post...
Thursday, 11 July 2013
Will be posting my P/L once the week is over. I have been doing also some paper trading with straight bet's or just started, this is just a bit of fun really but want to see if I have found an edge or not (most likely not but you never know!) with some use of statistics and prediction tools.
Anyway, after about 5 picks (I think) I am down £-323 using £100 stakes for each.
My picks for today/tomorrow are
Michael Russell @ 3.62
Kovinic @ 2.37
Meusburger @ 2.7
Monfils was a close pick against Kohlscreiber, but just quite not enough in it for me, for it to be a pick.
May have some more to add which I shall do if I find any others before the end of this evening, just to post them here in advance so I'm not actually making my results up after I post them. I will post the results of the paper trade picks at the end of each month, so it will be a running total of the P/L, be nice if I can get around a 300 pick sample to give me an idea of how thing's are shaping up in the long haul.
It should be worth mentioning also, I had 2 picked out after 2 game's were in play when I decided to look them up..both of them would of came in so I'd probably be in profit at the moment..7 pick sample size I know!
My bet's so far have been the following:-
Mannarino @ 3.81 £-100
Michale Russell @ 1.77 £+77
J-L Struff @ 4.89 £-100
Hlackova @ 2.28 £-100 (Particularly annoying as I see she was 5-3 up in the 2nd set after winning the first set, then lost 8 games on the trot before retiring..not sure what price she hit exactly but I think it was 1.05 and below..)
That's all for now, bit of a boring post, but I hope to pick thing's up in the coming weeks :)
Tuesday, 9 July 2013
So this is my journey, hope everyone enjoys it.
Starting bank will be £1000 from when I start in January 2014 for the betting, as long as my paper betting creates a decent size profit by the end of the 2013 season.
I'll tell my second goal once I make the first one!
This won't just be a P/L blog, I intend to post with some articles, stories, quotes, discussions etc as I go along, so enjoy the journey & enjoy the brewing!