Wednesday, 31 July 2013

The results so far...!!

Ok so I'm going to try break this down as simply as possible..I don't do simple/simply a lot of the time so I'll just try my best to make it readable and understandable for people as I can!

Below is from my database which shows the current entire profit since the beginning of doing the picks..this shows 94, 2 of these have currently not been played yet, so it's actually 92 in total.
I have not added the picks I put in the last post into the database yet, will wait until they've been played then add them in most likely.


So this doesn't look all that great right?  Only a -£100 profit not good right! Or is that wrong?

Let's delve a little deeper..

This is how the result's look since the criteria change from the 20/07/13 up until today 31/07/13

Again, we can take 2 picks off the total number of trades that it says, as there is 2 that still I am awaiting on being played.

So now it shows since the criteria change just over +£200 profit..still doesn't look great right, surely that's only a negligible difference? Right? Or is that wrong?


Now if we break things down even further..let's see what odd ranges have been making money, what have been losing money.

Overall I'd like to have a 6%+ ROI in the long-term.

So now let's look at the odds breakdown..


 Now if you take a closer look at the screenshot, you will see the different odd ranges that I have punched in, that give a breakdown of the Profit & Loss for those ranges.

1.01 - 3 odds range, is showing a £656 profit so far over 52 picks.
1.01 - 5 odds range, is showing a profit of £800 so far over 83 picks.

Now if we look at 4-5 odds I have made £562 profit over just 8 bet's WOW RIGHT? Woahhh..hold on to your horses there a second!

As you can see it's only 8 bet's and my ROI is ridiculous, like 70%.

So if those odds ranges are showing a decent profit, the 1.01 - 3 & 1.01 - 5 so far..why the hell am I down -£100 you ask? Well it's simple..let's have a look at odds 5-7 (Never had a bet where the odds have been higher then 7 yet).


As we can see in the highlighted area, I have so far done 9 picks on odds over 5 and have had ZERO WINNERS - Which has cost me -£900 so far. As you can see, that's what's cost me a profit so far.

This isn't to say that this odd range won't be profitable in the long-run, it just means that I haven't got near enough bet's in this range yet to give me any kind of idea if it's actually a money maker or money loser..I could say that for all the odds ranges so far, but if I picked randomly I'd expect to be losing money now for sure.

The point is, yes, the overall profit line is poor at the moment, but when we look into thing's deeper we can start to look at the 'real picture'. If I had placed no bet's over 5.0, I'd be in £800 profit so far. The fact is thought, I have placed those bet's and I am in a small loss so far, but it will only take 2 winner's at those odds in the next 4 picks of them to be in a healthy profit position.

Until the end of the season, I won't realistically have a decent idea of whether or not that is going to be a losing range..I may still not even know by the end of the season..however what I will be able to tell is, the odd ranges lower down where there more picks whether they ARE winning ranges, and that is crucial to the success of my betting for the future.

Hopefully this has been an interesting post, and it gives a little insight into why you shouldn't get yourself down on the overall line or profit or loss you've made, without investigating things further, it also stresses the importance of record keeping.

TheAlchemist


No comments:

Post a Comment