Saturday, 31 August 2013

Prices for Riske, Glushko

Riske @ 3.50
Glushko @ 3.14

US OPEN - Picks for Saturday - 31/08/13

Todays picks

TO BE UPDATED:-

Mens:-

Tursonov @ 3.31 (-£100)
Sock @ 3.06 (-£100)
Evans @ 3.97 (-£100)

Womens:-

Knapp @ 2.94 (-£100)
Kuznetsova @ 1.72 (-£100)
Riske - Has as kvitova - typo on my behalf @ 3.50 (+£250)
Glushko @ 3.14 (-£100)


Day TOTAL:-   -£350


Friday, 30 August 2013

Direction of the blog..Changes to the future!

Thanks to everyone who has followed my blog so far. I have to apologies a little as all I have been doing is posting picks/bets and posting results with the odd profit/loss breakdown (another one coming at the beginning of September).

Basically at the moment, because I am updating my blog and database with results and now starting to do a bit of trading, of which I am starting properly from today, I haven't been able to post anything really of worth lately, no articles or really any other interesting posts. So first of all, apologies on that behalf.

Once I go 'live' in 2014 with my betting, I will no longer be posting my bets here. I of course will be posting my progress profit + loss wise, but this will allow me to spend much much more time talking about my trading journey (and betting!) and posting actually worthwhile to read posts.

However, I hope everyone who reads so far keeps reading and will continue to do so into the future because it's only going to get more interesting! I have a goal for 2014 and that is making a 5 figure+ sum profit wise on betting/trading combined..when I put my mind to something and the effort in I generally achieve it..so 2014s goal is going to be to achieve just that.

I will be posting a few updates next month also about how my trading is going, starting from a £100 bank from today, and reading up on some more things in the next week or so. I'm in no rush this year, so for me it'll be about reading up more and just improving my direction for a big push in 2014..however if I make a nice profit with trading till the end of the year..well I'll be more then happy with that and it'll just give me a nice bank to play with for starting off the new year (:

Thursday, 29 August 2013

Picks for Friday - 30/08/2013

Picks for Friday

TO BE UPDATED:-

Friday:-

Mens

Sousa @ 3.56 (+£256)
Yen-Hsun Lu @ 6.60 (-£100)
P. Gojowczyk @ 2.30 (-£100)
L.Hewitt @ 6.60 (+£560
Devvarman @ 2.65 (-£100)
Karlovic @ 4.01 (-£100)

Womens:-

Zheng @ 3.08 (-£100)

Day TOTAL:- +£316

No more bets for Friday

Update fot prices for Thursdays games

Vekic @ 5.42
Sela @ 2.86
Mannarino @ 4.34

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

US OPEN - Wednesday + Thursday Picks - 28/08/2013 - 29/08/2013

It is a bit awkward at times to sort them out as they can change due to weather delays etc, can push games into the next day.

I am putting Thursdays picks on here also, it is much easier to keep track of rather then starting a new post, due to the rain delays causing havoc for me!

I have also moved over the mens picks for today, onto this post as it makes it much easier to keep track of everything.

Anyway!

Takes me a while to compile the list again.

Picks for tomorrow:-

TO BE UPDATED:-


Wednesday Picks:-

Womens

Vandeweghe @ 3.85 (-£100)
A. Schmiedlova @ 3.77 (-£100)
Bouchard @ 3.60 (-£100)
Barty @ 4.69 (-£100)
Nara @ 3.69 (+£269)

Mens

Bogomolov Jr @ 3.22 (+£222)
Goffin @ 2.39 (-£100)
P. Gojowczyk @ 2.95 (+£195)
X.Malisse @ 3.03 (-£100)
Stepanek @ 2.80 (-£100)
G.Soeda @ 3.48 (-£100)
Brands @ 3.98 (-£100)


Day TOTAL:-   -£214



Thursdays Picks:-

Mens

Klahn @ 3.48 (-£100)
D.Sela  @ 2.86 (-£100) - Had as Tipsarevic was a typo.
Dancevic @ 3.40 (-£100)
Davydenko @ 2.40 (-£100)
Gonzalez @ 4.08 (-£100)
Mannarino @ 4.34 (+£334)

Womens

Knapp @ 3.56 (+£256)
Larcher De Brito @ 5.68 (-£100)
Vekic @ 5.42 (-£100)
Penetta @ 3.19 (+£219)
Riske @ 2.66 (+£166)

Day TOTAL:- +£275

NO MORE PICKS FOR WEDS/THURSDAY.

Monday, 26 August 2013

US Open - Tuesday 27/08/13 Picks

Picks for Tuesday, again quite a lot of matches to sort through so may take me some time tonight to compile the list.

TO BE UPDATED:-

Tuesdays Matches

Men's

Kubot @ 3.90 (-£100)
Sousa @ 10.92 (+£992)
Gimeno-Traver @ 3.20 (-£100)
F.Mayer @ 2.17 (+£117)
Istomin @ 3.14 (+£214)
M.Przysiezny @ 6.90 (-£100)
Stakhovsky @ 2.37 (-£100)
De Bakker @ 1.69 (-£100)
Montanes @ 3.14 (-£100)

No more men games to be added.

Women's

Simmonds @ 3.17 (-£100)
S-W. Hsieh @ 3.54 (+£254)
Min @ 2.43 (-£100)
Tsurenko @ 2.72 (-£100) - This was down as Safarova before, typo on my behalf.
Babos @ 6.87 (-£100)
Y. Meusburger @ 2.93 (-£100)
J. Glushko @ 2.37 (+£137)
A. Dulgheru @ 3.59 (+£259)
C. Mchale @ 2.49 (+£149)
Svitolina @ 3.39 (+£239)
M.J. Koehler @ 5.61 (-£100)
C. Dellacqua @ 2.01 (-£100)

No more women's games to be added.


Day TOTAL:- +£1061

Sunday, 25 August 2013

US Open! Picks for Monday - lots of them!

Picks for Monday..lots of them for this week coming up..may take me some time to compile the list.

TO BE UPDATED:-

No More Picks for Monday.

Oliveti @ 2.54 (-£100)
Serra @6.62 (-£100)
Matosevic @ 2.61 (-£100)
Dancevic @ 3.11 (+211)
Evans @ 7.38 (+£638)
R.Williams @ 5.04 (-£100) - Hit 1.02 on Betfair..had 3 breakpoints at 5-5 in the 4th..lost every game after, bagelled 6-0 in the final set.
Medina-Garrigues @ 2.56 (-£100)
V.Williams @ 1.84 (+£84)
L.Davis @ 3.44 (-£100)
Schmiedlova @ 2.29 (+£129)
Dushevina @ 4.73 (-£100)
Fichman @ 4.34 (-£100)
Shelby Rogers @1.78 (-£100)
Arvidsson @ 2.51 (+£151)

Day TOTAL:- +£313

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Picks for Weds - 21/08/13

TO BE UPDATED

Haase @ 2.25 (-£100)
Robredo @ 2.40 (-£100)
Riske @ 3.31 (-£100)

Again, multiple players winning a set, but no match win, bad run of results/variance recently?

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Picks for this evening - 20/08/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Blake @ 1.90 (-£100)
Smyczek @ 3.05 (-£100)
Gimeno-Traver @ 2.95 (-£100)
Johnson @ 2.16  (+£116)
De Bakker @ 1.95 (-£100)
Rufin @ 3.22 (-£100)

Rubbish day again, most took a set but couldn't find a win.

 Very strange with the picks...nearly everyone quite clearly a pick..then again not too surprising as the US Open just around the corner next week.

Sunday, 18 August 2013

I'm still alive! Picks for Sun/Mon 18/08/13 - 19/08/13

Haven't really posted any picks for the last few days, as there really hasn't been much value to be had in the back-end of this master's tournament..very similar to the grand-slams in that regards when there into there 2nd week's, as the odds are usually very much in-line.

Anyway picks...

TO BE UPDATED

Monday

Berankis @ 2.16 (+£116)
Gimeno-Traver @ 2.70 (+£170)
Wozniak @ 5.19 (-£100) - As soon as she went 5-4 down in the tie breaker I knew it was game over. Close one.
Jovanovski @ 2.13 (-£100) As frustrating as wozniak game

Evening's additions

Schmiedlova @ 4.67 (-£100) - 6-4 6-4 loss.
De Bakker @ 2.09 (+£109)
Garcia-Lopez @ 3.48 (-£100)



No more picks for Monday! 

Looks like starting to hit another little bad patch of variance but to be expected with my strike-rate so far, my database showed a run of 11 consecutive losses before today I believe...then again it depends how I entering them into it whether or not they run concurrent or not.

Not that it matters, just got to keep plucking the picks out and stay firm, and still looking good profit wise so far since the new criteria. Marathon not a sprint (:

Wednesday, 14 August 2013

Picks for Wednesday - 14/08/13

Picks for today!

TO BE UPDATED:-

Gronollers @ 4.14 (-£100)
Bartoli @ 1.96 (-£100)
Venus Williams @ 1.76 (-£100)
Hercog @ 4.05 (-£100)

Just the four for today.

Monday, 12 August 2013

Profit & Loss update so far...because people like these! - I smell a profit!

So here's the breakdown of the P&L so far..

..let's go into detail!

In total since I first started, I have placed 136 bets (up until the Fish match tonight).

The profit & Loss total for those bet's is £838 profit as you can see below. This hit a peak of just over £1100 profit about 3 days ago i believe.

Since the new criteria there have been 101 bet's this has resulted in a £1200 profit so far. This hit a peak profit of £1500, again about 3 days ago.



Now onto the spreadsheet.

This show's different odds ranges broken down for all bets since the very beginning.


This one shows the odds ranges broken down for all bets since the change in criteria (20/07/13).



Now broken down for months:-

July
From the beginning for all of July:-


July P&L since the new criteria:-

  

August

Profit and loss for August so far:-




Well that was a nice post to write and do the screenshots for. To be honest I find betting a bit tedious compared to trading..even though it takes much less time for me to do, it feels harder..I guess it's because I'm not clicking button's on the ladder..who'd of thought I'd prefer something harder to do instead!?

Hopefully this gave a nice little breakdown so far of how the testing is going..just got until November to go, may the profit's continue..PLEASE PLEASE continue until November!! (:

On that note one last thing, never give up. You never know what might just be around the corner, I think TheSultan's blog is a great example of that..if you know you can do it and your strategies work but it's just the discipline side for example, then there is no point quitting and coming back and failing and rinse and repeating.

Work on your weaknesses if you know what they are, discipline is one of the key factors to being a winner, I've nearly wavered a few time's with these bets, especially when things looked bleak at one point, but I didn't and I had to carry on plucking them out even though whenever I hit a new peak I went back into a minus figure again, let that be a reminder to you all that it is never as easy as it looks, it's taxing on the mind - good job I'm relatively strong willed in that department.

Work on your weaknesses and strife to be the best you can be. Above all, take your betting/trading seriously, treat it like a business and it will eventually treat you!

Picks for Tuesday - 13/08/2013

These picks are on top of the picks from my last post that are also for Tuesday.

After his post I will be giving a breakdown of my P&L so far, so as soon as I've done the selections!

TO BE UPDATED:-

Nieminen @ 2.46 (+£146)
Annika Beck @ 3.39 (-£100)
Brian Baker @ 5.00 (-£100) - Added at 18:52 UK time
Stepanek @ 1.87 (-£100) - Added at 19:03 UK time
Wickmayer @ 2.96 - I don't really know what's happened here as it just says 'cancelled' but according to the scoreboard it was In-Play, but I don't see any winner yet so..I'll just wait and see ..not sure what to do with this one yet. - Added at 19:04 UK time

May have more to add tomorrow evening when I get back in for matches that are not available to me at the moment.

Sunday, 11 August 2013

Picks for Monday - 12/08/2013

Picks for Monday - P&L breakdown coming tomorrow.

TO BE UPDATED:-

Prices to be added still.

Monday:-

Fish @ 1.96 (-£100)
Blake @ 3.03 (+203)
Knapp @ 5.76 (-£100) - Added at 21:14 UK time.
Kleybanova @ 2.46 (+£146) - Added at 21:16 UK time.

Tuesday

Pospisil @ 2.2 (+£120)
Davydenko @ 2.81 (+£181)
Penetta @ 1.95 (-£100)
Peng @ 3.01 (-£100)


Saturday, 10 August 2013

Picks for today - Satuday - 10/08/13

 TO BE UPDATED:-

Pospisil @ 2.82 (-£100)

Just the one for today again, should be back with quite a decent selection of picks when the new tournament starts next week.

Will be doing an update about my Profit&Loss so far on Sunday evening hopefully, if not then on Monday evening.

Friday, 9 August 2013

An interesting short life-story from a stock trader I know.

This is from a very nice guy I know who made his money trading and such (not on the betting exchanges, but rather the stock market).  I asked him some time ago if he could give me a condensed version of how he got into trading, what happened, how he got on etc.

I think it's a good little story - He talks about out-growing the market, how he nearly lost a 6figure sum, the importance of money management and more interesting areas. You should be able to see a bit of relation to trading/betting on the sports markets.

I posted this back on one of my old blogs that I really didn't keep up to date or put effort into much before, so it was a bit wasted, but it's a really good read and show's the ups and downs before he 'made it' per-se, I have corrected any spelling mistakes, story begins from when he was 18. enjoy (:


"18: Started my own company. Fiddled around a lot with all kinds of idea's (trying to get rich easier than working hard :) ) before at age... 23 roughly, finally realizing I already had found the chicken which layed the golden eggs, I just had to work hard for it.

At that age somebody also introduced me into trading stocks. My girlfriend was still a student and she was offered an account with real time trading data. I opened up an account at a broker and that was when my day-trading started.... I guess I was 24 around that time.

Since I was lacking a lot of knowledge (I did an entrepreneur school but never finished it, I already started my own company before I finished it) in regards to stocks and stock trading, I read up on it.
I think I have around 200 books on stock trading from which I think I read more than half of them.
(I am also a book collector, I started that at early age with comic books :) )

It turned out my interest was in something called "technical analysis" which was my favorite subject. I would say that around age 30 I managed to be one of the best in that subject (lets say somewhere top 10)

Technical analysis is something that by that time was done with computers so I got into trading with computers. It was then that I found that trading based on computer models was something that was the best thing to do. (I found that if you do not use models you always deviate from your strategy... which is something you will also encounter a lot with trading on Betfair)

That you should not deviate from a model I already found out when I started. I had invested 150k in 1 single stock because I had a feeling IT MUST GO UP but... it did not...I think I was around 25 at that time... maybe a little older....

It almost had me going bankrupt but, after about 10 days where every day I got a phone-call from my bank asking me to deposit more money, it finally went up... and I made 100% profit in a few weeks time.

But with that experience, I learned that stop losses are very very very (* 100) important.
As was accepting that you are wrong.
And some other lessons that nobody learns the easy way.

After that I got into computer models. After all, if a computer says buy or sell, you can not (or at least should not) say that it is a wrong signal since you developed it yourself. It was around age 32 that I developed a computer model that would be my way to riches.

Around that time I had already made good profits with my company and I always invested those in the stock market. Since those were the good day's, (with an occasional human error along the way :) ) I had done very well already.

But that computer model, with rules that were "set in stone" was the one that finally bumped me to being a millionaire. It however also introduced a problem... I was trading futures and I was not only doing it for myself but also for some friend which I planned to make rich just as I was expecting to be.

By that time we were "throwing around" about 50 futures at a time.... each future represented about 200k so every time we were throwing 10M into the market. Unfortunately, just like many races on Betfair, the market could not handle those big amounts of money.

We, as a group, had become to big for the market. (see how trading stocks resembles trading Betfair ?
Lots if things should already sound familiar :) ). This is around age... 33 roughly....

We (as a group) decided to stop trading the dutch market and start trading the European market.
This is where luck came in for me... I never made anything with luck, but it saved me a lot of money that time.

I had to open up a new account with a broker that I did not know at that time because I could not trade the European markets from my dutch broker. So I opened it up but was careful enough not to deposit all my money there...

And then, I found out... that computer models... that made a lot of money in back testing, and even made me a lot of money in real trading, are far from a guarantee for the future.

It was 2001 and the markets had "changed". (I do not see it as changed now... the markets are just never the same, I just had some good flows to ride from 1998 to 2000 and the flow just changed or something....)

In hindsight, it is very easy to see the market had become in a downtrend and downtrends just move differently and with the market suddenly moving differently, my model stopped working. I lost most of the money I had deposited on my new account before I realized that something had changed. I was just fortunate that I only deposited 200k or something.

So that was the time I had to rethink my trading. I went back to developing computer models, but this time not a real time model (I sometimes trade 5 to 10 times a day which is not a lot for a day-trader but throwing 10M around it is a pretty interesting amount of money :) )

I put my aim at much slower models. I developed all that with the help of a friend... and, long story short... I found a few models which I still trade up till today. But now I do my trading once a week instead of every day several times.

I now have my computer run my models every Friday, I place the orders, and I wait for the next Friday :) They still are computer models, but where I used to look a lot at charts (it is called chart reading) I now look much more to the fundamentals as my first rule.

A company has to be fundamentally healthy (simply said, make a profit) before I even consider buying it. From there I look at how strong it is developing (chart based... read, are other investors interested in the stock... because I want to ride the trends)

And that is roughly my life story.

In between I got married, have 2 children, live a reasonable humble live (my money has to go a long way since I do not want to turn back to working hard again) and the girlfriend I talked about in the beginning is the one I am doing all that with :)

The end I think.... unless you have questions :)"

Today's matches - Friday - 09/08/13

Today's picks, just the one for today - most likely not going to be many at all now until next week as some of the match-ups aren't seen as too competitive.

Pospisil @ 2.18 - VOID - Davydenko retired when 3-0 down, wasn't watching the match so can't comment on what happened.

Thursday, 8 August 2013

Picks for this evening - Thursday

TO BE UPDATED:-

Pospisil @ 5.92 (+£492) - Some match this one a truely excellent spectacle I have to say, great victory for Pospisil against Berdych.
Bogolomov @ 2.90 (-£100)

Only 2 picks for this evening in the end.
Will be posting an update of my results overall very soon also.

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

Picks for Wednesday - 07/08/13

Will be posting picks early Weds morning most likely, going bed as not feeling 100% at all.

Full of the cold really badly, so want to be at the computer as little time as possible today.

TO BE UPDATED:-

Rybarikova @ 2.28 (+£128) - This one was close price wise, but my stats make her the fav slightly so will take the price.
Fichman @ 5.37 (-£100)
Peliwo @ 6.87 (-£100) - Was doing well..something odd happened in the 3rd set, price hit like 1.01 for Istomin at 2-3 behind, no idea what occurred.
Dancevic  @ 3.85 (-£100)
Pospisil @ 2.80 - (+£180) I've updated Pospisil's odds as I wrote down the price completely wrong @ 2.66..feeling very rough with this flu/cold!

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Picks for monday + Tuesday - 05/08/13 - 06/08/2013

TO BE UPDATED:-

From now on in, will be doing picks down to 1.50 as long as the system says there is value there - before I would not go below 1.70, will see how I get on with these until the end of the season, may push the profit margin into a minus figure at the end of the season, but worth doing during the paper phase to see how they work out. <--

Monday:-


Wickmayer @ 2.41<--VOID as was versus Robson, match was cancelled.
J.Zheng @ 2.76 (-£100)
Zemlja @ 3.00 (-£100)
Belucci @ 2.37(-£100)
Benjamin Becker @ 2.19 (-£100)

Not overly impressed with my B.Becker pick as it was on the edge..Belucci has just annoyed me to hell tonight though. Unfortunately at the moment, the moment I string a few win's together, there's a concurrent row of losses afterwards which is grating. Still the 1.01 - 3.00 odds range show's a decent enough profit still..for now.

Tuesday:-

Provisional Picks for Tuesday - Prices to be added Monday evening

Wozniacki @ 1.65 <-- VOID as now has a bye from 1st round
A.Kleybanova @ 3.22 (-£100) - Lost fairly easily
Dubois @ 2.11(-£100) - Won first set after being 3-0 down but let fischman be too aggressive and couldn't keep up.
Peliwo @ 4.63 (+£363) - Nieminen retired - will take the luck though!
Dancevic @ 2.51 (+151) - Dancevic was a set and 2-0 down in the 2nd, good win for him in the end.
Benneteau @ 3.22 (-£100) Reminded me once again why he has never won a ATP Tour Final in 7 attempts..crumbles under pressure...win here would of meant an Excellent start to today..but it wasn't to be.
Goffin @ 5.74 (-£100) - Decent effort from Goffin, lost in straight sets.
Stepanek @ 2.48 (+£148) Nice win for Stepanek
Fognini @ 2.51 (+£151) - Trailed 1-6 from first set, but won the next two set's..funny enough 6-1 6-1.
Gronollers @ 5.17 (+£417) - Gronollers won 6-4 6-4

Great day overall, need to enter results into my database..annoyingly, I didn't get on Pospisil vs Isner early enough when his price was great as I waited, otherwise that would of been a pick and a decent win for the results.

Picks for today - Sunday - 04/08/13

Picks for today:-

Matosevic @ 2.32 (+£132)
Rodionova @ 5.75 (VOID - Rodionova walkover)
Martic @ 1.86 (+£86)
Bogolomov Jnr @ 2.43 (+£143)

Saturday, 3 August 2013

Part of the next process in the near future

Part of the process for me in the near future once I have around 300+ odd results will be to start to breakdown the figures then. So far up until today's picks but not including them, I am down overall about £-414, since the new criteria I am down about £-56 I think..need to re-check.

The next stage once I have over 300+ picks overall, if I am in a loss overall and down quite a bit (hope I'm not, but could be if some ranges are proving not as profitable as others), will be to start to look at getting more winner's then losers, this would again probably mean that I will have to just tweak the % band that I give when I pick my selections, so basically - less picks but where I believe those selections have a decent % to win, that's basically what I do already, however I may need to increase that % bigger to then what I currently have it as.

We'll see how thing's go anyway..it's only the beginning of August and the picks have only been going for 3 weeks, still all of August,Sept,Oct and part of November to go yet, so PLENTY of time..I am however just about £7 off my lowest profit point..things seem to be rather break-even at the moment. We'll see how thing's progress!

Will give another breakdown of the results at the end of this month..here's hoping thing's turn around a little bit..on a losing streak of 7 picks out of 8 and one voided currently.

Friday, 2 August 2013

Picks for Saturday

TO BE UPDATED:-

Gronollers @ 2.47 (+£147)
Tursonov @ 3.84 (-£100)
Rybarikova @ 3.14 (+£214)


Has been quite a poor week since last Friday/Saturday in general..hopefully a bit of luck will start to go my way sooner rather then later and hit a good patch of results.

Picks for this evening

TO BE UPDATED:-

Niculescu @ 3.32 (VOID - Niculescu retired after one game)
Cirstea @ 1.83 (-£100)

Thursday, 1 August 2013

Picks for tomorrow - Friday 02/08/13

Picks for tomorrow.

TO BE UPDATED

Will be updating this later on tonight, one for now though:-


Querrey @ 2.49 (-£100)

Friday:-

Vandeweghe @ 4.38 (-£100)
Haase @ 2.10 (-£100)
Montanes @ 2.58 (-£100)