Monday, 30 September 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 01/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Devvarman @ 3.13 (-£100) Querrey @ 2.44 (+£144)
Melzer @ 4.17 (-£100)
M. Chiudinelli @ 2.84 (-£100)
Gronollers @ 2.69 VOID - Game vs Simon was cancelled
Sugita @ 5.20 (-£100)
Davis @ 3.97 (-£100)
S. Zhang @ 2.36 (-£100)

Septembers results are in! Overall profit & loss since beginning also. Onwards and upwards!

Quick post because somehow I've broke the text box that allowed me to put the P/L for each month..hopefully after a computer restart it'll work!



I am looking for someone to proof my picks or at least follow them in the new season, presumably you already have an established blog. Would like someone to post how they get on with them in the new season as well as having someone else following them as an independent source.

I will make a separate post on the blog about it soon, but if interested in following next year contact me at icemanv6@googlemail.com or leave a comment on the blog.



I'm a little bit miffed because my spreadsheet shows me as £40 LESS then my database does..exactly £40 pounds over the same number of trades..and since the results that go into the spreadsheet come directly from my database there's obviously some tom-foolery going on somewhere!

Just in-case someone noticed that already, I thought I'd point it out. I still haven't been able to bottom it out! As a matter of fact, a very kind person I know off a forum I'm part of is going to make me a professionally designed database which will hopefully be all dancing all singing, bells & whistles etc.

Basically, it'll be a lot lot more professional then the shoddy one I made and allow me to do my queries in access, have graphs representing my data amongst other things, so I'm quite looking forward to it..should hopefully allow me to export my data to excel in a much more nicer on the eye way. Will most likely take some progress, but hopefully I'll have some screenshots of it in the new year.

He wants nothing, but in return I will give him a small % of my profit over the next year or two (I have a two year goal in my betting to reach £20k as a minimum starting from next season onwards - Basically I want 10k for a house deposit and the rest will be used for my betting in the future just to try build a nice pot).

Seems like the decent thing to do since he is going out of his way to design me something that will be critical for my betting/trading in the future, karma and all that!

Anyway onto the results. Only a quick re-cap because I have a shed-load of matches to go through tonight for tomorrow and I want to start getting them out of the way!

Profit & Loss this month as per my database.

Considering I had a -£1400 downswing at the start of this month, to finish up just shy over +£1000 profit was very welcomed (: 


As you can see a +£1171 figure for the month


Below is the overall profit and loss since the new criteria


 I have highlighted the P/L figure as you can see +£2849 (My spreadsheet says +2809 so no idea how £40 has gone missing??)

Breakdown of the odds on my quickly knocked up spreadsheet.



Odds of 3.00 - 4.00 continue to be a loss for some reason, could just be variance, I find it hard to believe it isn't because 2.2 - 3.00 is in a big profit and a wider range of odds even with a shorter number of picks is in profit also, of course I need a bigger sample size for these ranges but I'm not going to get it until a season or two realistically.

If we take away any bets under 2.2, my profit as you can see would be over £3500.
I honestly don't think I am finding value under odds of 2.2 (rather under Evens), however again I don't really have a decent sample size, but I just have a feeling, my margin for error is not as big at under Evens as it is above it which is probably what is causing me to think that. I have to say I pretty sure I'm correct and I'm 90% sure it'll be 2.2 and above for the new season when I go live with my own money. For now, to keep things as consistent and transparent as possible for the back-testing I will include them still until the end of the season, no veering off course!

Only just over a month now until the end of the season. So the season edges nearer to the finish and nearer to the end of me updating my blog with picks. Once the end of the season finishes I will no longer be updating my blog with bets, but will be updating it with posts and also posting my results of my bet's monthly. I just will not have the time to update the blog posting bets and also updating my database, it's a lot of work.

That's all for now.

Sunday, 29 September 2013

Picks for Monday - 30/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Zhang @ 5.49 (-£100)
Bautista-Agut @ 2.56 (+156)
Hewitt @ 2.47 (+£147) Montanes @ 4.81 (-£100)
Brands @ 2.53 (-£100) Rybarikova @ 2.67 (-£100)
Fichman @ 3.49 (-£100)
S.Zhang @ 1.77 (+77)
Doi @ 4.54 (-£100)

Day TOTAL:  -£220
 
Early picks for Tuesday below (more to come will put them on the post for Tuesday on Monday evening, these two are picked out early though).
Davis @ 3.97

Saturday, 28 September 2013

Picks for Sunday - 29/08/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Bogomolov Jnr @ 2.28 (-£100)
Safarova @ 2.00 (+£100)
L.Davis @ 2.97 (+£197)

Day TOTAL: +£197

No more picks for tomorrow.

Friday, 27 September 2013

Picks for Saturday - 28/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Sousa @ 2.53 (+£153)
Benneteau @ 3.48 (+248)
Schiavone @ 2.18 - VOID
Wozniak @ 4.21 (-£100)

Day TOTAL: +£301

No more picks

Thursday, 26 September 2013

Picks for Friday - 27/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Sousa @ 7.36 (+£636)
Tursonov @ 3.54 (-£100)
Wozniacki @ 2.27 (-£100)

Day TOTAL: +£436

No more bets for tomorrow.

Question & Answers session (Q&A) with myself

I've decided it would probably be a good point to get people to ask a few questions who read the blog.

Anything related to the blog, the future state of the blog, the bets etc, anything at all, feel free to ask and I will put the Q&As up on the blog in a new post, so this a chance to ask me anything betting, trading or blogging related.

Feel free to leave your questions in the comments box below (if any).


Wednesday, 25 September 2013

Picks for Thursday - 26/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Matosevic @ 3.64 (-£100)
Istomin @ 3.10 (-£100)

Day TOTAL: -£200

No more bets for tomorrow

Results - Looking at the bigger picture - EXPECTATION - let's discuss

So finally I have some time to write up the post I wanted to do last week.

So I'm not going to do the end of month break down just yet, purely because it isn't the end of the month. Rather I wanted to talk about 'looking at the bigger picture' and expectation. What can one expect to achieve, what can one expect to lose?

First of all, let's talk about the bigger picture. At the moment it seems as if my picks are profitable overall so far, realistically it's not about 'months' of results but really the AMOUNT of results that is important. You can have 12 months worth of results but if you only placed 100 bets over that period it really doesn't tell you much. This is one reason why one shouldn't dwell on if a month is profitable or not, we need to look at the bigger picture, are the bet's profitable over a number of bets rather then time period.

So far, over 277 bets my average profit is £7.71. This means on average each £100 bet that is placed, I am getting a £7.71 profit on each £100 invested. My ROI currently stands at 7.71%

For the beginning of this month I hit a loss of just over -£1400. Based on my average profit made per bet at that time also, one could say I was running horribly below what my expected value should of been for those bets. Let's say I had 50 bets, on average - and we will base if off the £7.71, I 'should of been' £385.50 in profit. However, betting doesn't work like that and smooth curves don't happen over a short period of bets. The bigger the number of bets placed, the smoother that curve should become.

As the number of bets get's bigger, I will have a better idea of where my 'true' overall ROI lies.

People need to remember, that they shouldn't look at 'big profits' or even 'big losses'. But should look at the ROI figure and then realize that they will make £x amount based on £x stake on average.

One of the most important things is to not think about the amount lost or one, but everytime a bet is placed that you are making £x amount overall. X being a number.

Hopefully once I hit the 1000 bet's mark I will have a ROI of 6% or above. That is my goal, if it's anything bigger then that, then all the better, anything lower then 5% isn't really acceptable for me (it's still acceptable but in my opinion there is a big enough edge/value to be found in bet's that it should be higher then this).

Once I have implemented the other column into my database I talked about in previous posts, I hope this will allow me to push up that ROI further in the future. Of course it will take, but this game is all about being patient.

Now let's take a quick look at the strike-rate. My strike-rate is currently 35.74%

You can use this site, that talk's about strike-rate and allocating what % of your bank to use based on that.

http://laytheodds.com/lay-betting/articles/losing-runs/

As you can see, at a 35% S/R my longest concurrent losing run should be 16 losing bets in a row.

It's very important to understand the psychological aspect of losing runs, more so it is important to understand so you can stake appropriately. When I come to use a real bank in 2014, I will have one that can at the very least cover 2x the maximum concurrent losing run in accordance to my strike-rate within my staking.

It really is THAT important to record results for both betting and trading. Only then can you start to understand and analyze your results effectively. You will also be able to work out based on your strike-rate what your maximum number of concurrent losses should be in a row. Just remember you could effectively go 16 losses in a row, 2 winners, then another 16 losses with a 35% strike-rate for example.

Which is the reason I talked about expectation and ROI in the start of the post. Do not think about the losing aspect! If you have a profitable method trading or betting, think about that every time you place £x amount stake, you are making £x every time! Only result-logging will be able to tell you these things.

This is a very simple method to stop you from getting emotionally pissed off when you go on a losing run due to variance.

Understanding variance and losing runs is a key aspect to trading and betting as well as understanding the psychological impact it can have.

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Picks for Wednesday - 25/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Mannarino @ 3.09 (+209)
Soeda @ 4.26 (-£100)
A. Schmiedlova @ 2.89 (-£100)

Day TOTAL: +£9

No more picks for tomorrow

Monday, 23 September 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 24/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Karlovic @ 2.14 (-£100)
Wozniacki @ 1.75 (+£75)
C. Dellacqua @ 3.81 (-£100)
Peer @ 3.44 £0 - Withdrawed
S. Zheng @ 2.31 (-£100)
A. Schmiedlova @ 2.31 (+131)
Y. Meusburger @ 1.93 (+93)
A. Dulgheru @ 1.91 (-£100)
S. Zhang @ 2.03 (+£103)

Day TOTAL:  +£2

No more picks.

Finally managed to get my database updated also, broken the £2k profit barrier since the start of the picks from the new selection criteria. Have a feeling tomorrow could be a rough day, as quite a few of the picks are around evens and as I have said countless times..I'm not convinced on the profitability of them at that range, but continuing to count them as my goal was to record everything until the very least the end of the season.

Will be adding my % margin column into my database, for the picks after tomorrows, so I'll be able to analyze even further in the future and make my selections more profitable as time goes on.

Sunday, 22 September 2013

Picks for Monday - 23/09/13

 TO BE UPDATED:-

Apologies, have not been able to write up the post I wanted to as I have had a busy weekend, I've not even been able to update my database for a few days properly with the recent results. It will get done, hopefully early on this week. Also noticed I had been messing up on the under 2.2 odds range..I have corrected this now, but will still be recording results until at the very least the end of this season.

Misake Doi @ 2.94 (+£194)
Keys @ 2.51 (+151)
Ozaki @ 3.04 (-£100)
Rodinova @ 3.00 (-£100)
C. Dellacqua @ 2.13 (+113)
M.T. Torro-Flor @ 6.00 (-£100)
S.Peer @ 3.10 (+£210)
A. Schmiedlova @ 2.15 (+£115)
T. Babos @ 2.37 (-100)
S.Zheng @ 2.03 (+103)
Puchkova @  4.210 (-100)

Day TOTAL: +386


No more picks.

Saturday, 21 September 2013

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Picks for Friday - 20/09/13

 TO BE UPDATED:-

V.King @ 2.85 (+£185)
S.J. Jang @ 3.13 (-£100)
Bautista Agut @ 3.36 (-£100)

Day TOTAL: -£15

Vania 'Comeback' King anyone? set and 2-5 down in here match before, came from a set down to level a set all, and down 1-3 in the final set today, to win 5 games on the run and the match.



Apologies!

Apologies, only just put todays picks up, I had updated the draft post before but forgot to hit submit before I left home, just checked now and saw my error. The bets will stay as I had already done the work last night (was waiting on better price for 2 of the mens games this morning).

Apologies for this, will try not to make the same error again.

As a note, kimiko date krumm won though so it brings atleast my position to break-even for the month virtually..hopefully at least one of the outsiders wins today to put me in profit for the first time this month!

Picks for Thursday - 19/09/13

 TO BE UPDATED:-

C. Berlocq @ 5.61 (+£461)
Zopp @ 5.20 (-£100)
K. Kravchuk @ 5.54 (-£100)
Date-Krumm @ 4.65 (+£365)

 Day Total: +626

Puts the picks into profit for the first time this month after a horrific start to the month..still, could go North could go South still..just over half the month still to go!

Picks up for tomorrow. 

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

More interesting reading coming very soon..

As the post title says really.

I'm going to talk a bit more about the results, no breakdown though, that will come at the end of the month, so watch this space in the next few days, hopefully by Friday evening my post will be up about what I want to talk about. A lot of it will be about the picks so far - number of picks I am producing and concerns that I am too far off from the Strike Rate I want (which I am).

The lack of a bigger ROI so far with at times results feeling they are more break-even then producing a steady increasing profit, future goal to give better value in the picks most likely resulting in less picks but better ROI, profit and S/R, talking partly about the results and a new method I will be implementing so I can see, look at and make changes in the future to weed out the losing '% margin' as I call it, and see what % margin is proving profitable and then stick to that range...of course I'm presuming that a certain % margin IS proving profitable (which I think it is, but since I haven't recorded this margin next to each pick originally, partially because I'm an idiot, I'm going on basically my past memory . I will talk more about this in the post when I write it up as I'm sure it makes about zero sense to most people reading at the moment!

A new angle I am looking into (still haven't managed to get round to implementing it yet though) and more about the blog and it's direction for the end of the year and 2014.

On a side note, a profitable day today along with yesterday has helped to reduce the huge loss sustained at the start of this month quite considerably.

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Picks for Wednesday - 18/09/13

Going to attempt to start to do picks for a new angle I'm going to back-test for 6 months, however not the best of weeks to begin it in all honesty due to the time the matches are on, liquidity isn't always built up currently for this particular market.


TO BE UPDATED:-

B.Becker @ 2.53 (+£153)
Przysiezny  @ 2.55 (+£155)
Bautista Agut @ 2.65 (+£165) (apologies here, I had some issues after I noted down the price of getting onto the internet so wasn't able to post the price on the blog).
Puig @ 2.37 (+£137)
S.Zheng @ 4.32 (-£100)
Babos @ 3.44 (-£100)
Konta @ 3.35 (+£235)
Ka. Pliskova @ 3.52 (-£100)
Begu @ 3.14 (+£214)

No more bets for Wednesday


Day TOTAL: +£759

A healthy day today. I have removed the post above this one, and slotted the prices into this post to keep the blog tidier. 

 

Monday, 16 September 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 17/09/13

Picks for tomorrow

I hope things start to pick up soon, been really really rough this month so far. I need to look at the selections that are priced under 2.5 because I just get this niggle that I'm perhaps not picking quite accurately enough for some reason. For the time being anyway going to keep on grinding away, really tough period so far.

TO BE UPDATED:-

Delbonis   @ 3.34 (-£100)
Giquel @ 2.01 (-£100)
Fucsovics @ 4.85 (+£385)
P-H. Herbert @ 4.97 (-£100)
Huta Galung @ 2.18 (-£100)
S. Zheng @ 2.35 (+135)
Babos @ 3.30 (+£230)
Peer @ 3.18 (-£100)
R. Ozaki @ 2.16 (-£100)
Jabeur @ 2.53 (+£153)
X. Han @ 3.58 (-£100)
K. Date-Krumm @ 2.25 (+£125)

No more picks for Tuesday 

Day TOTAL: +£328

Thank the lord, a winning day! (:

More picks later on tonight for tomorrow. 



Sunday, 15 September 2013

Picks for Monday - 16/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Mondays Picks

Scheepers @ 2.23 (-£100)
Cetkovska @ 2.3 (-£100)
Larsson @ 2.58 (-£100)
Ye-Ra Lee @ 2.19 (+119)

Day TOTAL: £-181

Picks for Sunday - Mondays coming later on tonight

 TO BE UPDATED:-

Picks for today, will add tomorrow's matches later on this evening.

Pospisil @ 4.05 (Davis Cup) (-£100)

Day TOTAL:  -£100


Saturday, 14 September 2013

Picks for Saturday - 14/09/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Scrapping Under/Overs for the time being, and will be back testing a new angle instead hopefully shortly.

Erakovic @ 1.91 (+£91)

Day TOTAL: +91





Friday, 13 September 2013

Thursday, 12 September 2013

Trading begins!

I will be trading from now, I originally was going to use a £100 bank, which I started actually doing, just getting a bit of practice in, but I am going to use a small £50 bank and post the results and videos here up (of me trading). Hopefully this goes well, if you can double the bank every month on average, after 6-7 months, it would give a very healthy cash amount (£6400 after 7 months if doubling the bank each month from £50). Of course as long as I am making profit then for the new season I will use a lot bigger bank then £50!

I'll still be posting the bets. I may give these until 2 months into the new season, depends on how many bets I can get in before the end of the season. Poor start to September with so far on match odds alone there being a loss of about -£1100, Ofcourse my goal is for a ROI of 6% overall, so on average that would mean every 100 bets returns me 600 pounds.

Bet's under 2.2 odds, has gotten even worse. Again I'm not too worried, I will analyze the results once again at the end of the month, and make my final break-down and analysis at the end of the season to see which odds areas are making me the most money, likelihood is though I will be scrapping bet's that are under 2.2 for the new season (seem to be getting into a bigger red), but for the sake of transparency and consistency I will change nothing until the end of the season. :)


Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Picks for Wednesday/Thursday - 11/09/13 - 12/09/13

 TO BE UPDATED:-

Terrible start to the month but only 8 picks in. This list will be updated also around 4-5pm UK time, to add the evenings matches, these are the morning ones so far.

I have added over/under games, however these have not been back-tested and just something I am trying out, so if anyone decides to place bet's based on these, you do so at your own risk!

Over/Unders will be based on a £100 stake.
Over/Unders odds are based on pinnaclesports odds as are the match odds.

Wednesday

Davis @ 2.52 (+£152)
Glushko @ 2.03 (-£100)
Ozaki @ 2.56 (-£100)
Coin @ 4.22 - (-£100) Over 21 games @ 1.93 (-£100)


Day TOTAL:-  Match odds: £-148
                          Over/Under Games: -£100

Thursday

Arvidsson @ 3.67 (-£100) - Over 20 games @ 1.9 (+£90)

Day TOTAL:-  Match odds: -£100
                          Over/Under Game: +£90

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Back again! Picks for Monday

 TO BE UPDATED:-

Sharipova @ 5.29 (-£100)
Puchkova @ 1.80 (-£100)
Panova @ 2.12 (-£100)
M. Krajicek @ 2.73 (-£100)

Day Total: -£400

Tuesday

S. Dubois@ 4.27 (-£100)
E. Daniilidou @ 3.11 (-£100)
Fichman @ 2.06 (-£100)

Day Total: -£300


Will be sorting these picks into the correct days on Weds. Great start to September, 9 losses in a row...all women's matches also.

Friday, 6 September 2013

Profit and Loss for August - Overall P/L since beginning..Let's role with it!

Ok so it's that time of the month where I look at previous month's results, and also time to take another look at the overall productivity of the bets so far.

So here we go..


August P/L:-

As you can see, a nice month for August 144 bets in total.


Total Profit +£1530   ROI - 10.63%  S/R - 33.33%

I did have one big winner here (two in fact) that gave me most of the profit. Majority of the lost profit for the month is actually due to under 2.00 odd bets - somewhere around -£900 I think for August on them, Overall even since the start of the bets without a change in criteria - to note, this change in criteria didn't affect the way bet's when the odds are under 2.00 were selected though! Well under 2.00 has been making a loss since the beginning it looks like, which I will show in a post after, I think at the end of the period - at the end of the season and going into the new year, that I will not be doing any bet's under 2.00/Evens, and most likely 2.2 will be my lowest price I will take on a bet.

However I don't really have near enough bet's on under 2.00 odds yet to really form a solid opinion on this, however I am getting quite a lot of bet's above 2.2, so I can start to formulate an opinion on this at the end of the season up to a specific range, so at the end of the day I will be going where I have enough results/sample size that is showing me a profit.


Here is the OVERALL profit and loss since I began. This is from my database.


As you can see since the very beginning without the criteria change, only +£1116 of profit at an ROI of 4.63%


Below is two screenshot's of the profit and loss since the new criteria. The first one is from my database, the second one is my excel spreadsheet, the second one shows again a breakdown of the profit at different odds ranges.


Total profit since new criteria:- +£1478

Below is a screenshot of some odds ranges broken down since the new criteria


 And now the last screenshot, shows a breakdown of the odds ranges since the very beginning


For some reason my database shows 241 bets as it's toal, but excel is only counting 239, I presume this is due to void bets somewhere in the database that excel isn't counting up.

However, I hope this has given a nice breakdown as to how things are going (:

Can't wait until after the US Open, PLENTY of tournaments 2nd half of September which means PLENTY of matches I will get bet's from. Which means a bigger sample size to give me by the end of the year.

Let's role with it.

TheAlchemist




Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Quick update

Quick update.

I will be posting a breakdown of the overall betting results so far hopefully tomorrow and August's P/L margin.
Unlikely to be any more picks until next week once the US Open finishes, due to it getting to the business end and there is not much value to be found when the top player's are getting this far in usually.

I will also be testing another method, based on under/overs. However I will not be posting this on my blog, just doing that in spare time.