Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Betting on hold until the new season, trading starts.

I've decided to put the betting on hold until the new season, I have nearly 400 results and I think I am showing a very small profit, so there are areas for improvement to push it into a  decent profitable direction for the future which I will look into before the new season.

For now trading has started with my capital being £300 to trade with, I will post my results as and when.


Edit:- Should of read £300 bank not £400!

Wednesday, 16 October 2013

Picks for Thursday - 17/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

No more picks after today (Possibly tomorrow evening but doubtful), I'll be back in action reporting them from 26th Onwards again until the end of the season. Going away for a weeks breaks

D. Guez @ 2.54 (-£100)
Haase @ 2.49 (+£149)
Bemelmans @ 4.14 (+£314)
Nieminen @ - 2.39 (-£100)
K. De Schepper @ 4.30 (+£330)
Donskoy @ 6.00 (-£100)
Kukusin - Price too low NO bet.
Smitkova @ 7.49 (-£100)
Knapp @ 3.61 (+£261)
Meusburger @ 3.47 (-£100)
Dolonc @ 2.73 (-£100)
Rybarikova @ 3.33 (-£100)

16/10/13

Beck @ 4.85 (+£385)

Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 16/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

To say this month has been horrific would be an understatement. However, I may run my back testing a bit further into 2014 as there seems to be some correlation of certain odds. I need more results though realistically before I can really see if it is going as I expect it is (making a profit).

One thing for sure is, bet's under 2.2 are almost guaranteed to be scrapped by the end of the season, however as mentioned before I will keep recording until the end of the season..I promised this at least to myself to not make any rash decisions, plus it's all experience

Matosevic @ 3.66 VOID
M. Basic @ 2.81 (-£100)
G. Garcia-Lopez @ 2.36 (-£100)
Carreno Busta @ 3.28 (-£100)
E. Roger-Vasselin @ 1.89 (+£89)
P. Lorenzi @ 4.53 (-£100)
Bouchard @ 2.23 (-£100)
Piter @ 2.38 (+£138)
Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.02 (+£102)
S. Arvidsson @ 3.77 (-£100)

No more bets.



Monday, 14 October 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 15/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:-

Marchenko @ 2.04 (-£100)
Hewitt @ 2.21 (-£100)
Copil @ 3.83 (-£100)
O. Nedovyesov @ 2.44 (-£100)
Kucova @ 2.70 (-£100)
Piter @ 3.26 (+£226)
Begu @ 3.81 (-£100)
Dolonc @ 3.77 (+£277)
Parra Santonja @ 4.46 (-£100)
Dushvena @ 3.05 (-£100)


Sunday, 13 October 2013

Picks for Monday - 14/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Huta Galung @ 2.73 (-£100)
Kamke @ 2.32 (-£100)
Giraldo @ 2.30 (-£100)
Zopp @ 1.97 VOID - Retired before 1st set was completed.
J. Mertl @ 3.86 (-£100)

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Picks for Friday - 11/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Zahlavova Strycova @ 4.14 (-£100)
Nara @ 2.67 (+£167)
J.Zheng @ 2.82 (-£100)
Doi @ 5.14 (-£100)
Voegele @ 4.40 (+£340)
Mayr-Achleitner @ 11.25 (-£100)


Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Picks for Thursday - 10/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Nishikori @ 2.58 (-£100)
Petkovic @ 1.87 (-£100)
K. Piter @ 5.71 (-£100)
Zanevska @ 2.71 (-£100)
Zhang @ 2.17 (-£100)



Another horrific day, will be fun to analyze the results at the end of this month and see which direction I will be taking when going live in 2014.

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Picks for Wednesday - 09/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Nara @ 2.22 (+£122)
F.Mayer @ 2.16 (+£116)
Brands @ 5.08 (-£100)
Knapp @ 2.40 (+£140)
Klaffner@ 2.37 (-£100)
Svitolina @ 3.48 (-£100)
Bencic @ 5.05 (-£100)
L. Kumkhum @ 5.10 (-£100)
Hercog @ VOID - Walkover

No more bets.

Analysing my prediction model. Not my results

Just a very quick post.

Talking to the guy who I posted a post about him before (the stock trader one). I was talking about my results, because of today's results it has obviously affected how well my ROI is at different ranges quite a lot.

He has told me before I can really understand how well my results are doing, I first need to analyse how good my model is at predicting matches.

Realistically, what might be better would be to record every single match, and the price of each player as per the bookmakers then see how well the prediction for the favorite matches up to the price. That is unfortunately something I don't have time to do.

However I can record the % chance of the player winning for my selections and then compare this data in the future which is something I am going to start doing. That way I will be able to see how accurate my model is at finding value..from there I can make adjustments in the future to either the model or my selections.

If a certain range of the %chance of winning is in the + and another range in the minus over a large sample size then I will know what's costing me money and what isn't. Obviously I need to have broad enough rangers of chance of winning.

Something else for me to examine next year..realistically it's probably going to take me a whole season to come to something conclusive. Oh yea, I'll be trading next year and won't be posting my bet's on the blog anymore after November so it'll be mainly posts talking about trading and my betting and my P/L screenies.

Monday, 7 October 2013

Picks for Tuesday - 08/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

Lorenzi @ 4.46 (-£100)
Hewitt @ 1.71 (-£100)
Soeda @ 4.60 (-£100)
Z. Zhang @ 5.98 (-£100)
Wickmayer @ 6.51 (-£100)
A.Beck @ 3.50 (-£100)
 Brands @ 2.04 (+£104)
Scheepers @ 7.19 (-£100)
Giorgi @ 1.83 (+£83)
Kr.Pliskova @ 3.34 (-£100)
P. Mayr-Achleitner @ 2.97 (+£197)
Zanevska @ 2.61 (+£167)
A. Schmiedlova @ 2.68 (-£100)
V.King @ 3.28 (+£228)


Horrific day and start to the month..much like last month, but this month has been a lot worse so far, Lorenzi trading sub 1.10 serving for match and loses, and a few others losing breaks at key points in the matches, that and Melzer being a pick last who week who traded sub 1.05 and went on to lose. If those 2 came in my loss would only be around -£500 for this month or so in total, so goes to show you how just 1 or 2 results can make a difference. Horrible day today, no other way to sugar coat it!

Worse thing is after next week there will be no picks for a week as I go on holiday..so potentially no chance to reduce the red for this month much - depends how the other bets from now until next Friday do, ah well, onwards and upwards!

No more bets for Tuesday - Good selection here 13 in total so a busy day tomorrow for me!

Sunday, 6 October 2013

Picks for Monday - 07/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:
Granollers @ 2.70 (+£170)
Ka.Pliskova @ 2.98 (-£100)
Z. Diyas @ 2.90 (-£100)

Thursday, 3 October 2013

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Picks for Thursday - 03/10/13

TO BE UPDATED:

F.Lopez @ 2.88 (-£100)
Jankovic @ 1.78 (+78)
Petkovic @ 2.00 (-£100)

No more picks.

Tuesday, 1 October 2013