Saturday, 30 November 2013

Stevenson vs Bellew prediction

Here's my prediction for tonights main fight in Canada.

My prediction for Froch vs Groves was pretty much spot on, on a boxing forum im part of, as I expected Groves to take it to Froch and clinch when in close whilst everyone thought Froch was going to walk right through him. I saw the price as value on Groves, unfortunately the fight ended in many peoples eyes unsatisfactorily which is a risk you take betting on boxing.

As in my last post I will post a screenshot of my P/L for that fight just showing when I decided to lock in a free bet for it.

Anyway onto tonights fight, I don't know much about Stevenson I'll be honest but I do know enough about Bellew. I do quite like him, however, I don't see him getting a decision in Canada unless he wins by KO, because I just cant see him dominating the fight in the way Groves did last week.

He isnt slow but he also doesnt have that fast hands either and I've seen lesser fights make him miss when he tries to load up.
I don't think he will want to get stopped late as it would damage his stock in my opinion, any close fight and if he loses won't do much damage.

I do however think he is tough enough to last the distance, so for me 5.4 on Stevenson to win my decision looks like value (everyone is expecting him to won by KO which is no surprise). I expect the odds may drift further out to 6.0 again nearer fight time as people will possibly lump on him to win by KO.

Any close fight and you can expect the decision to go Stevensons way, I personally dont think the judging is great in Canada so for that reason and the reasons above, Stevenson on points is my pick.

Edit:- Traded out and re-backed Stevenson at 6.0.

Friday, 29 November 2013

Preparation PART 1

First of all, I've realised I don't really have any stand out titles. This is about as best as I could come up...I'm not the most creative but it will do!

So I'll start off where I left before on my last post today.

Reading blogs

I have recently started looking for some new blogs to read, also found one or two older one's that I will be reading through before the new season. Part of my errors in the past have been basically not continuing to work on my progress at the end of the season...basically at the start of this season it caused me to self destruct. I could not trade to save my life, part of the reason, although not the main part, was because I wasn't keeping myself active enough. Therefore my goal is to read blogs and keep my mind fresh about tennis trading for the new year and see if I can pick up some areas in a match where I can maybe find a scalping strategy (I'm a swing trader).

Diet & Exercise

For me, it's no surprise that my best run of results came back in 2012, the 2nd half of it when I was exercising regularly and eating more healthily. I definitely suffer/suffered from discipline problems, I think it's been a long standing issue since 2011 when I stopped playing poker. I never had any major issues when I played poker with tilting, never went out of my stake size etc.

Can't honestly say I've been able to do that with Tennis, it's been a multitude of things that have combined together over time without me realising. However, I understand more now that I need to keep myself motivated and keep myself learning. When I exercise I am making myself do something, so it's important that I do it, it may sound daft but for me it makes a huge difference. Too often I will just spend hours in front of the computer browsing for just random things and not getting anything productive done, I'm aiming from now to stop that.

So for me, exercising will be an important part for Decemeber 2013 leading into 2014..I also need to lose a bit of weight as I've put on about 2 stone since August 2012! (I'm now about at the 14stone barrier!).

Database

This is coming along slowly, I'm going to make a video and post it on the blog just showing the basic functions that it currently has. I think it's going to be a really nice in-depth tool once it's fully completed! It'll always have a few new things adding to it for all of next year, so I don't think I'll have a 'near' complete version until the end of next year. Realistically it will always have small changes made to it for as long as possible as and when I require something new to be made.

Although the creator is making it for free, I feel obliged to give him some money as a token of good will, so he will be getting a small % of what I make every month (or over the course of next year) for his work, which I think is only fair considering I expect it to be a very good piece of software a few months down the line from now.

By the end of 2014, I'll be able to add, edit, delete and record results. Hopefully the graphs will work properly by the end of January at the latest also. This is basically all the functionality I need to begin with, I can analyze with queries and advanced queries further down the line.

I'll try get a video of the database recorded and up by the end of next week.

Lazyness

This kind of links into part of the things above, it's something I want to and will cut out for next year as much as possible. As I said above, it's a combination of not being pro-active and not exercising, I'm pretty bad for it at time's but small changes on several areas beginning from now/December are going to make a huge difference I'm sure.

- December  preparations

So I decided not to really do much preparation with tennis or other trading until December, why?

Reason being I want everything to be as fresh as possible, it was nice to take a bit of a break from the blog from posting results of my bet's and updating it. As soon as the tennis season finished a week or two ago, I knew if I started to really dive in I would most likely forget some things before the season started again in 2014.

December is the right time for me to start, I can gradually build up towards the 31st December (first day of the new season), thoughts and processes will also be a lot fresher.

- Trading/betting

As for trading for 2014, I have some things I need to get done before hand. Nearly all of my strategies are down for the new season, this is something I didn't do before. I now have everyone I use in certain match situations written down, so it'll be just a case of knowing what point in a match certain events repeat themselves and looking to see if the price is value. This for me is quite 'rigid', but it also means I know all my entry points but more importantly, I also know all my exit points. All I need to do is wait until the price that in my opinion is out of line in these situations, based on certain indicators.

I intend to print off a few pieces of information and put them above my monitor, these are certain prices where events  tend to happen.

I will be taking a photo of my room wall later on in December just before the new season to show my position plan I am using (Got it off Richard 9s student material blog - this is now free for everyone).

I also need to read through some more information as I believe I can get another strategy created for tournaments before the new year.

There really is a lot for me to do, I can't remember it all at the moment so I will be needing to write it down on my notepad and start ticking everything off as I complete it along the list.

Organization is going to be key for me as well to be successful for 2014, so I intend to make sure I get everything right before the season begins.

Recording my session, I will be recording my session as and when I can, part of this will be so I can review any errors I make and I will also have effectively a video library of my journey.


That's all for now, I will talk about the controversial stoppage in Froch vs Groves in my next post.

People who read my blog will remember I had a punt on Groves at 5.0. I did intend to trade it but I really wanted to just watch the match, I had two back bet's in at 6.4 and 6.2 respectively (can't believe people lumped so heavily on Froch) and gave Groves zero chance..then again as I said before, people's knowledge on the sport is not great as it's a niche sport.

In the end I actually locked in a free bet for £30 instead of £40 I would of won in a straight bet, I will post my bet's for that event on my next post so people can see.










Updates coming soon!

So it's been a few days or even a week now sincd my last post.

I'll have a more indepth post done once I get home from work today but a few bullet points for what I will be discussing/need to do before the new season.

- Reading blogs, I have found some new blogs that are being updated so shall follow there progress by putting them on my blogroll.

- Dieting and Exercise, my reasons behind doing this and logging my progress (Im not even really fat!)

- Database, Further developments with my trading database, what I need to ask to be included, where its upto in its development stage, making a video of the alpha build to show its current capabilities (Still very early days, but basic logging of results is possible etc).

- Lazyness, getting off my arse and preparing to be proactive after this weekend, reasons why I'll be gearing up from then on.

- December, preparations will really begin for the new season, what I am going to be doing.

- Trading/betting, My 'goals' for 2014, what will happen with my betting angle from earlier this year and a lot more.

- Controversy! Last weekends british boxing Title fight, my views!

Will go more into these points later on this afternoon.

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

Boxing this weekend Froch vs Groves - Is boxing tradeable/betable - can value be found?

First of all, I am a big boxing fan and I am very much looking forward to the Groves vs Froch fight this weekend, not because of all the hype around it, but because I really rate George Groves as a fighter and his technical abilities. I also have a lot of respect for Carl Froch also for what he has done for himself and for boxing.

Lots of people say a 'fight has come too early', but more savvy people will realize when a up and coming fighter or prospect fights against a experienced fighter who has fought at a championship level before or several times, it is the 'acid test' that all prospects or well backed fighters have to take at some point or another, therefore it is only natural that some of the time these fighters are underdogs, and have to beat the odds to win.

Personally, for me this weekend will be a case of how well Groves deals with any pressure that he comes under in the ring by Froch and how well he stays together defensively (in the past he has had the habit of swinging a bit wildly and leaving himself open to being caught, but he has improved on this massively).

I expect he will take shots well enough and I believe that he is actually a better fighter technically, whenever someone perceived as a KO artist faces a better boxer technically then them, they do tend to fail more then win. At odds of 5.0 (on Betfair), I see this personally as value for a Groves win. Someone else thinks this is a complete mismatch and see's the KO odds for Froch (around 1.70ish) as value instead. His reasoning for it being a mismatch? Froch being a seasoned championship level fighter and Groves the up and comer if you like.

As I stated above, this crossroads happens in boxing at some stage. I don't see it as a mismatch because I fully believe Groves has the BOXING ABILITY to win, it's whether or not he can take the perceived punishment he is going to take to win, that's one answer I don't have, but at 5.0 and with my perception that he has the ability to win, I've decided to have a small punt.

Anyhow, onto the important part of my my post I have attempted to trade/bet on boxing before, in my opinion if you can read a boxing match well you can definitely make good money from it, the ladders aren't that liquid but you can still get decent money matched, which isn't surprising as people fear a knockout happening and getting wiped out.

I have had in the past mixed success with betting on boxing, I can honestly say I had lost a bit of paper money on it before betting pre-fight, however, one of my downfalls WAS trying to bet on too many fights and not waiting until a price really seemed like GOOD value to me, as a result I was picking too many selections that would not make me money overtime. It was basically being impatient.

I also believe it is easier to make money on boxing in-play then pre-match betting, notice I said betting, not trading. Although I am going to look into trading boxing more in the new year, for now I look for areas I can bet in-play instead.

However if you are a fan of boxing and watch events unfold at times, specific things happen which can make finding value on it quite easy, because people's knowledge of boxing is quite small - after all boxing is a niche sport these days, and there is virtually no boxing on terrestrial TV (except Channel 5 mainly) anymore, a lot of events happen that piss the regular punter off.

I read boxing forums so I am only too aware of them complaining about how certain events unfolded, however they don't take advantage of the power of Betfair's exchange for boxing.

After all, the price of events moves based on what is happening in an event - or perceived to be happening - in an event and the punters mentality.

I won't go into too much more detail, as I personally don't want to give much away on how I have began to approach boxing very very recently from watching fights and looking at the exchange but I'll just say this.

Boxing is a sport based on perception and the coined term 'opinionated judging'. It doesn't have a set scoring method like tennis, where winning a point takes a player to 15-0 for example.

Just like in Tennis, the market overreacts to certain situations and the price is 'incorrect' and value is prevalent. 

If you can spot the value you will profit over the long run...the danger in boxing is that you can lose your entire stake at any stage and that it was scares a lot of people away.

Thursday, 14 November 2013

In with the new, out with the old!

So it's been over a week now since my last post, and thought I'd post where I am up to in preparation for the new season.

I have started to completely re-do my folder structure which contained all my trading manuals, information, worksheets, strategies etc etc so that it now makes some kind of uniformed sense.
Before it was all in one folder and all over the place, now it's broken down into sub-sections for each sport and more.

All part of my goal/aim to approaching trading in a much more professional manner.

Below are a few very early WIP screenshots of the database that a online friend who I mentioned in a few posts ago, is making me. These were from about 2-3 weeks ago now, so I'm sure he has done a lot more work since.

Graph work, so I will be able to see a cumulative profit for each month as well as breaking down each month into days/weeks.


Some screenshot of the table structure below - based off Gundulf's database instructions he put on his blog, for building a database in Access. As my previous database was from following those instructions, my friend wanted to take a look at it, so he could get a better idea of how it worked.
He is not a trader himself, so all of this is alien to him.


Next on the list of things to do for me, is to set up my strategies document/PDF file and make links to each of my strategies, and break them down into ATP/WTA, 1st set/2nd set. I will most likely not trade in 3rd sets, I have had some success in the past, but I don't have a specific strategy for them at the moment.

After that, I will be looking at the model I used for the paper betting I did since June and looking to improve it, whilst it is not showing a consistent loss, it is also not showing a consistent profit, rather 50/50 or breakeven. In my opinion there is definitely profit there to be found, however my model's values/inputs need to be changed slightly to make it consistently profitable.

Will post another update, as soon as I have more to show or talk about.

Sunday, 3 November 2013

Not much to report, little time for trading!

Unfortunately, I have a very busy month this month and I have haven't really been able to trade at all for the past few days. What I've decided to do is wait until the new season on the 31stDec/1st January, until then most of my spare time is going to be reading up on information and seeing my new database being developed for next year (should have some screenshots in the coming weeks of it). From what little of screenshots I've seen so far, it looks very neat and will definitely be just what I need next year.

I guess there isn't really much else to report until now until the new season from my side, I will be taking a look at my straight bet's from last year and analyzing the data, checking my model and then seeing if there is a way forward with it in the near future.

I will try keep the blog updated with a few posts until the new season ticks over just so that it doesn't go completely quiet and I'm sure there will be some interesting things that I find in the meanwhile.

TA.