Sunday, 29 December 2013

New season begins!

The new season has just started to arrive!

I'll be trading from today onwards, by next week I'll have my first set of results (hopefully in profit!) to post up on the blog. I'm looking forward to the Australian and New Zealand tournaments, I've also noticed there is a few challenger tournaments also on Betfair (finally!) which means I am not going to struggle for getting games in the next few days...although my girlfriend might have other ideas!

I'm going to put a video up later on in a very short separate post about the trading database, there has been a few more features added that I will show, as well as talk about what will hopefully be in future updates. Thanks to embor for posting a suggestion in the comments box on my last post.

For the time being I've decided to drop the potential betting aspect I started earlier on in my blog, I can't seem to find a reasonable edge in the model I had and would need to tweak certain aspects of it, something I don't have time at the moment to do and record the results now I'll be trading.

I've also reduced my trading bank to the measly sum of £50, when I first started playing Poker I used a similar amount (slightly less at £30), managed to turn this into over £6k within 7 months.

I believe I'm at the same stage now as I was then in Poker when I started that journey, I know all the strategies I need to use, I know how to spot value and I know how to read the markets. What I was struggling with in the past was direction and discipline. Now I feel like I've turned a new leaf and I know I don't need a lot of money to make a lot of money in the long-term.

Taking a break and starting to take a serious approach to trading over the last few months in preparation for the new year has helped me so much. I have taken my time to think about all the strategies I know I had in the past, but never had written down or even recorded my results.

I think strategies is slightly misleading to people reading actually, in reality what I mean is I know certain situations appear/happen in matches all the time. The same situations or patterns, I have written a strategy for, this just helps me log those patterns or situations under different strategy names, so I can assess/perform how well each of them is doing. Will be interesting to see my results over 2014.

So in reality, I look for the situation to arise and then apply the strategy, rather then applying a strategy to a scoreline or such. I think this is where a lot of new and even experienced traders who are perhaps not making consistent profits or any at all, go wrong. They try to apply a strategy to every match. I only now apply a strategy where value is to be found - and these value moments I realized appear time and time again in specific points in matches, not every match of course, but they do appear eventually.

I'll be back hopefully later on today, with a new video of the database update to show.

Friday, 20 December 2013

Preparation Part #3


It's been nearly two weeks since my last post and I've had a bit of time to reflect on how I will run the blog into the new year.

Firstly, my goal will be to do a weekly blog post, this is easier for me to manage and means I can just write down everything I want to discuss on a notepad then put it on the blog all in one-go.

2014 is going to be a busy year for me, so it's important I distribute my time appropriately to some tasks and start getting a 'routine' in place. So for the blog, I will do weekly updates, most likely on the Sunday.

For preparation for 2014, well it's been on and off, I have gotten nearly all of the stuff I need to go on my wall printed off, but there is a few pieces outstanding, I just need to put them up which I'm going to do once this blog post is done. In my next post next week I will take a screenshot of my desk and the things that are stuck on the wall above my desk, so you guys can see (two pieces I need to block out because they are to do with my strategy and are from a service I picked the information up from, so don't want to disclose it).

I have in-place, a wall-planner, price guide, position plan and a set of rules.

I also have my strategy list, but this I'll most likely just open up on the computer instead as I trade.

Now, I know my strategies of the top of my head anyway, but as I have quite a few I like to keep them written down. As there done in set format e.g. Set 1, Set 2, Deciding set format, it's easy for me just to flick through to each page, I've also broken them down into WTA/ATP also, so it's now a very easy process. It's good to look at the strategy list as each Set passes by, that way I know in advance what strategy/situation I need to look at next and it keeps me focused.

That is one of the main reason I have them written down and will go through the list of them as each match progresses, it helps me keep focused on the match and knowing what situation I am next looking out for. My mind has a tendency to wander, if it's focused more and I'm waiting for a situation to appear, then it will only benefit me.

In the past I've been guilty of just seeing one opportunity go by, then not being ready or focused for the next one, even though I have a good idea that one is going to present it's self shortly. This is something I want to change.

There isn't much else for me to post, it's coming up to Christmas and the New-Year. I'm away this weekend to meet my girlfriends aunt and uncle for the first time..which will be interesting!

One thing I do plan to change though for each post is, I will just be posting my profit and loss, my bank size I would rather keep to myself now (for reasons pointed out by someone I trust).

I'll be back next week, just in-time for trading on the exhibition tournament and the new season!

On that note, Merry Christmas!


Sunday, 8 December 2013

Preparation Part #2! Database Video up, profit & loss figures up!

So here we are in part #2

It's been a week since my last main blog post, so here's an update at where I'm at essentially.

I'll go over a few of the points in Preparation part #1 then just a re-cap of this weekends event's and what's occurred trading wise for me..and there has been some action!

I have since read some blogs (but need to go over some again) since I wrote my last post, I found one or two ideas but need to look to try to implement them as a strategy in the new year, If I can't, I'll leave it, I have plenty of strategies of my own that I am able to use but if I can find new way's to profit, I will.

Diet & Exercise, I got myself on the X-Trainer but haven't been on it since and my diet isn't going anywhere fast (only myself to blame on this one!). However I am off next Tuesday so will look to get a healthy shop in then. My girlfriend is going to help me out with it and also we'll be pushing each other to get fit and healthy into the new year, she goes to the gym already so it's not an issue for her.

Database - Well as promised, here is the database video.

 You made need to select 720p for it to be of decent quality full-screen. The actual video was just over 12mb so it won't be much effort to stream in 720 or 1080p!

If you have any comments or are interested in getting your hands on the database, feel free to message me or leave a comment on the blog. The database is a WIP (Work in Progress), this is just the basic functionality of it so far and I'll be interested for functions/features to be suggested to be added, so please don't be shy!

Lazyness - I'm still trying to quell this, but it is like a virus, it keeps mutating and coming back when I try to eliminate it from one action, it comes in the form of another!

In all honesty this is my BIGGEST PROBLEM, always has been. It tends to come when I am just not interested in doing something, cleaning, some aspects of a day job, etc etc.

I am getting better though, I definitely need to work on my to-do list I have on my computer - I tend to do things half-halfheartedly and this just isn't going to cut it when wanting to trade long-term.

However my discipline IS much better these days and will only improve as I look to improve on the things above. No longer will I accept big losses and I am able to cut my losses in a trade and make them as small as possible, this is such a big psychological impact and one that is going to benefit me immensely in the new year. It's strange because I rarely if ever had this issue in poker.

I believe I lost my way after playing poker psychologically and mentally, losing my edge in these departments, I've had success,failure,success,failure to trading before, but it definitely feels different this time round as I am able to stop the stupid losses I'd of found myself making in the past. My whole outlook on trading has began changing (for a few months now), whilst it definitely isn't quite where it should be, it is going in that direction.

I knew myself I had to make those changes and I'm glad I did.

So now I've got those out of the way, let's look into this weekend first of all before I discuss what's to be discussed in Preparation Part #3.

I saw that Stephen Ormand was to win via points against Derry Matthew on odds checker (I wrote this in the previous entry last night before the fight). I was about to take this price when I saw 9.0 on skybet - which was ridiculous imo, I knew Ormand was a good little fighter and I know Derry tiers out later on in a fight, for me this seemed like a competitive fight, although it was only a 10 rounder 6.0 never mind 9.0 looked like value imo for a Ormand win on points (he is not a huge puncher but lot's of volume!).

I'm glad I took the price with skybet, as Ormand duly obliged and won handily on points. It was a fantastic little scrap also, but his work-rate was just ridiculous I have to say, so much energy!

That make's it 1/3 for my boxing predictions on the blog, finally a correct one!

Below is a screenshot of the bet last night I placed, also a screenshot of my boxing P&L on betfair, you'll notice there is a bigger loss on Stevenson vs Bellew (match odds), this was because I planned on trying to trade out for a few ticks pre-fight, forgot I left it in and went to bed.

Ormand bet -

Boxing P&L for December so far:

It's not the first time I've done this - it's happened a few times to be honest, so I'll need to put something on the wall above my computer to say to check no liabilities are still out standing before I end my trading!

Small loss on the crolla fight but I exited this one fairly quickly so I was fine with it, trade didn't go to plan - since today I've decided I'll stay OUT OF in-play trading for the time being on boxing (also liquidity was poor on this event to trade it and I prefer to stick to straight betting on boxing for the time being I think). We'll see how things go with the boxing in-play avenue, as I said before, there is definitely value to be found in the right fights but I think it's easier to straight bet in-play rather then trade (Easy to trade out at the end of a fight though before the result if liquidity is good).

Lara vs Trout - This was just an error on my behalf so I can't complain and will take a valuable lesson from it, but again, no more then £11 loss, so it's acceptable and I've managed to keep all my bet's about the same (some are more then £10 slightly due to tick trading before hand and some small losses). Lara fought well in this fight, Trout is one of my favorite boxers and criminally underrated so on a side note, I hope he wins a title again in the near future.

Porter vs Alexander - I went with Porter to win this one - just as well I decided to go for him outright rather then based on a decision as he was close'ish to stopping Alexander, points would of been my preferred option but the winner odds looked like value to me.

I part laid Alexander then backed porter after. Originally I planned to try and trade this...which is a bit dense because I want to stop in-play trading on boxing for the time being, and after tonight it's definitely going to happen.

As I said, originally planned to trade it, then I backed Porter for an outright win for a few pounds to make up my liability to £10 (I kept my lay of Alexander in as I only got matched for a few pounds, left it to late in the evening). My liability was just over £10 and I had about a -£10.xx loss if Alexander won, £13 on the draw which ended up offering me a bit of cover, and £50.xx on Porter. The profit on the draw definitely was not planned, but it worked out well in the end for a bit of cover.

Unfortunately I don't have a screenshot of the toy for this one as I ended up watching the fight in my living room without taking a screenshot, and just checking the market's progress throughout the fight on my phone. You can see the profit and loss figure though in the screenshot below.

The boxing profit and loss hasn't been as great as I'd of liked, but a few errors as well as deciding what kind of road I really want to go down (In-Play trading or out right betting), have meant I've had a bit of a further testing out phase. I think I spoke about trading boxing in one of my previous posts, I still think actually outright betting is easier to do in-play then actually trading in boxing (there isn't much money in the market during the rounds due to a knockout potentially at anytime, as such, trading out is trickier then I first imagined except in BIG fights).

For now I think I'll stick to pre-match betting and just see over next year how I get on, if there is any glaring value to be found in-play then I will of course have a straight bet (This does happen, just need to make sure it's the right fights). I won't be rushing of course, patience is key.

Anyway, enough about boxing.

I have managed to trade on the Statoil masters. Yes liquidity was awful! but I managed to make a profit on 2/3 matches, I don't mind these markets with small stakes as long as I am taking value positions and sensible with my entries and can see there is money available.

P/L for tennis for the last 30 days (as you can see, it has only been this weekend).

I can honestly say my trading started out great in the first match, but I started to flounder and lost a bit of discipline (I always kept my liability in check though! In the past this wouldn't of  been the case!), accepting losses is becoming so much easier for me now.

Anyway, I should of stopped after this 1st set in the first game I traded but got involved again when I had pretty much traded how I wanted to up until that moment. I won't lie, I got lucky to make more profit then I should have - I was on a well traded £38 profit but ended up with just over £50..luck like that isn't going to last long-term, I'm just glad I am able to cut my losses these days much better.

The other two matches I made a smaller green as shown in my P/L below and a loss in the other match, nothing I could do in that one, didn't go my way but exited when I needed to so was happy.

In part #3 I will discuss where I am on with my todo list, strategies and go over how I am getting on with diet and exercising. I'll leave the database until the new year now until more functionality has been added. I can't wait for the new tennis season!

Oh yea my bank is now just over £450 from the £300 I mentioned a while ago, hopefully 2014 is the big year for me.


Saturday, 7 December 2013

Update #2 coming soon!

Well its nearly been a week since my last update!

I'll have more to come tomorrow including preparartion part #2.

Which will include, a video of my database, my profit and loss from tennis this weekend, how I'm getting on with my preparation and more!

As for tonights boxing, I'm picking Stephen Ormand on points at 6.0.
(Got 8/1 on skybet also).

More to come tomorrow!

Sunday, 1 December 2013

Boxing Update

Well, I couldn't of been more wrong last night! Stevenson it looks like made short work of Tony Bellew with a TKO in the 6th round, still, I was happy with the points selection as KOs at the upper-echelon of the sport do not happen as often as people expect.

Still, that's 2/2 bet's wrong so far so a nice start, I may look to stay away from high percentage knockout artists in the future, but I'll see how things go.

Some screenshots below for Groves/Froch and Bellew/Stevenson.

Groves below, I placed several bets pre-fight then exited for a small loss, backed Groves and traded out mid fight to lock in around £30 on Groves and a small profit on any other outcome (Froch/Draw).

Stevenson - Bellew below, traded out my original 5.4 bet and then backed at higher odds, as I mentioned in my earlier post I was expecting it to potentially drift out to 6.0, so I should of been much more patient instead. Still a -£11.29 loss.

Will have more updates on the preparation for the new tennis season in my next post, hopefully a video of the database also.