Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Picks for 19/02/14

For whatever reason, I have been getting the dates wrong for my picks and putting the date as one date behind..week must be going slower then I think!

Still going with 2-1 in set results to see how they do over the long-term, I have a feeling I will fair better with 2-0 in set betting but we will see after a period of time.

For today:

Wozniacki to win 2-1 in sets @ 4.3 (Betfair) -£100
Ivanovic to win 2-1 in sets @ 4.3 -£100
Pfizenmaier vs Piter Under 21 games @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) -£100
Pfizenmaier -1.5 sets @ 2.43 (Pinnacle) -£100
Robredo vs Lajovic - Over 19.5 games @ 1.80

Monday, 17 February 2014

Picks for 17/02/14

Cornet vs Halep - Over 19.5 Games @ 1.95 - VOID
Stosur 2-0 (-1.5 sets) @ 2.24 - Pinnacle -£100
Olivetti - 2-1 in Sets @ 6.4 -£100 (2-1 in set's is new for me, I will give it a risk and see how they do, if they do poor over a decent period I will stick to 2-0 set betting).
Pereira - Under 20 games @ 1.92 +£92
Pereira -1.5 sets - 2.17 - Pinnacle +£117
Veronica Cepede Royg (-1.5 Sets) @ 1.91 - Pinnacle +£91
Falla @ 2.10 - Betfair (Just for my records! Lost)

Sunday, 16 February 2014

Picks for 16/02/14

Cilic -1.5 Sets @ 5.05 (Pinnacle) -£100
Under 23 Games (Not 22.5) @ 2.00 +£100

Unfortunately I don't have time to do anymore for today.

Saturday, 15 February 2014

Picks for 15/02/14

Cilic vs Sisling - Under 22.5 games @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) -£100
Kerber 2-0 in sets @ 4.00 (Betfair) +£285
Nishikori vs Russell - Over 20 games @ 1.91 (Pinnacle) -£100

I will stop match odds for the time being and just be recording them for myself. Had Robredo as a winner today but did not pick as I was slightly unsure even though I felt there was value, Kerber value for me was on 2-0 if she was to win (she did), again she should of been put down for match odds win but I forgot (even though I had her as a 2-0 winner..). I need to have more faith in my method for match odds, but I will just concentrate on set betting and under/overs for the time being on the blog and look to work on the match odds separately.

On that note, I think Russell looks too big at 14.0 on Betfair to win 2-1 but I'm not sure I want to start betting on big underdogs, also it's harder for me to get matched at decent amounts or prices - I want to keep this as realistic as possible.

I'd rather be more cautious and selective then going out of my comfort zone.

I will try post my thoughts on other matches also, besides my actual picks.

All Betfair winners will include commission taken off the profit at 5%.

I will break down each category, Unders/Overs, Set Betting P/L at the end of each month.

Friday, 14 February 2014

Picks for 14/02/14

Cetkovska @ 4.90 (Betfair) -£100
Halep vs Errani - Under 21.5 games @ 1.91 (Pinnacle) +£91
Errani @ 2.56 (Pinnacle) -£100
Haase @ 3.09 (Pinnacle) -£100
Cilic to win 2-0 @ 5.1 (Betfair) (Completely messed this one up as well due to settings, even though I knew Cilic had been in good form lately..fixed error..Murray 2-1..not sure how it came out with it). +£389.5
Cilic vs Murray - Under 23 games - 2.00 (Pinnacle) +£100
Sijsling @ 2.34 (Pinnacle sports) +£134
Chardy @ 3.25 (Betfair) -£100

I have made a few errors with the match odds picks but I'll keep them in for clarity purposes, but since there up I'll keep them there. I'm more interested on overs/unders and set betting scorelines for the next few months. 

Hopefully the Match odds matches don't end horrifically, very much messed them up for today but have fixed the problem, this is my least likely area I think I will be able to profit in as I need to change my methods more..time will tell.

Nearly had Karlovic vs Lopez as a 2:0 to him, more research is needed on my end, but starting to get the hang of things with regards to picking out bet's for unders/overs at least. Only issue is, a lot of the time the odds aren't up until gone midnight in the evening so I can't see the lines before then, hopefully this will be easier to do with tournament's that start and finish earlier on in the day.

Horrific results for the match odds before, way for picking back to normal for the Sijsling game and will be for future match odd games also (at 2.0 odds+ atleast anyway), good results otherwise for the under/overs.
The three match odds picks before wont go towards my official results for myself but will keep for the purpose of clarity on the blog.

All Betfair profits include 5% commission taken off.

Taking on Chardy at 3.25 at betfair also due to Almagro looking poor yesterday.

Thursday, 13 February 2014

Paper Betting Returns..

Very quick post,

I will be doing paper betting again, see how I fare this time.

I'm hoping to make some improvements this time, so I'll see how I go and if I can turn a profit for starters, never mind consistent one.

Anyone just one for tonight so far. All will be made with £100 bet's Betfair or Pinnaclesports odds where stated.

Berrer @ 3.70 (Betfair) (-£100)
Ferrer vsGiraldo Over 20.5 games @ 1.94 (Pinnacle) (+£94)

Wednesday, 12 February 2014

One step forward, two steps back.

I'm well overdue an update to where my progress currently is 'at'.

Well here it is so far.

Below is my P/L for both of my wallets for January, Main & Australian.




As you can see, not great results at all. Virtually all of my horrific results comes from taking a bigger loss then I should have an reverting to a gambling mentality (something I am still trying to break the mould of).

I haven't received any feedback on the database yet, so I would appreciate it if anyone who is using it can give some for the next version, which I have no idea when that will be ready for.

I have some idea's as I stated before about what else to add for the next version, so i will pass these on. I will give people the chance to respond before a week today - 17th February, then I will be sending my own feedback on for improvements, as well as other implementations I would like to be added.

As for February, I started off well but continued to 'slide' down into bad ways again. I am getting there but I'm still at a loss for just under -£100 so far. Again, reverting to gambling rather then trading too often.

I will be making video's of my trading for a month from today, these will be freely available until then. They do take some time to create + upload but I will post when they are up.

I'm pretty busy with other stuff at the moment also, I'm going to Bruges at the start of March and I am working on some video editing for a game I used to play, video editing is one of my on/off hobbies. This project I am working on is taking some time to complete though!

I'm thinking of starting to look into straight betting again, I know I wasn't doing badly when I first started this blog, back testing picks, however I still wasn't consistently profitable. I'm going to look into re-doing this and adjusting some things and hopefully I will be able to find myself a profitable method with small adjustments.

Next post will be a week today hopefully, anything worth posting and obviously I will do it earlier then that..time pending!

Thursday, 6 February 2014

Database Available!

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to write the gigantic post I wanted to write tonight, so hopefully I will get it done tomorrow night, at least by the end of the week at the latest.

However, the database is now available for anyone who wishes to test it, I will try get the new video uploaded for use in the next post.

Be warned it is still a beta.

If you notice any bugs, or get any crashes (there's normally a easy explanation why it has crashed, like some other info needs to be entered first). Let me know and I will try to assist where possible.

You can get the database here:- https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/59404409/Database/tradexpert_0_1.zip

Any issues, please let me know and please give feedback, anything else you would like to see included. One of my next suggestions for implementation further down the line will be to see if it is possible, to get exportation of results to Excel, or import data also.



Big update coming tonight

So, it's just been under a week since my last post.

I'll have a big post update tonight on where I'm at, as well as hopefully the new version of the database + video showing it.

So far in February I am in profit. I should in reality be around £300+ for the month but I am instead only a measly +£80 in the green, I had wiped all of my January losses conpletely until tiredness and stupidity kicked in later on last night and I blew about 60% of the profit I had made.

I will talk more in my upcoming post tonight, but there have been a lot of positives so far.

I will also want to update my blog more often, again I will discuss the reasoning tonight.

Until then...