Tuesday, 29 April 2014

Moving forward

So once again it's been exactly a week since my last post. I quite like not making daily posts, I honestly don't have the time to do it, so this way suits me nicely and I think I can talk about more stuff, rather then finding things to talk about.

Latest update, well I've only been able to trade 5 matches since I started trading, I've had a busy last week and had to move my day off work too yesterday so that I was able to help my girlfriend sort her car out. I won't really be able to trade this week now until the weekend and May is going to be not a lot of trading for me as I have a wedding next weekend, then about 3 weeks later I go to Mexico for 2 weeks holiday!

So far, my £20 bank is doing nicely, nicely because I haven't blown it! I will get chances to trade this month - just not as much as I'd like. Again I am only doing first sets of matches until the end of May, if I can turn over consistent results then I will just keep building with that amount, I'm actually really confident I can now.

I did a similar thing with poker starting out fresh with about £20 (about $35 at the time I think). I managed to turn that into close to a 5figure number with discipline and persistence playing. I'm sure I will do the same in Trading, I'm in no rush, I hope my figures at the end of the year from this small amount of money show it was the right choice.

As for my paper betting, things are going well, even without filters it so far shows a profit of £10431.16 based on a £10k starting bank. You can see some basic figures in the screenshot below.



Although, my biggest two wins make up for the majority of that profit, when I added two simple filters and manually added up my figures, the amount for both men and women events were around the £3-4k mark in profit. This did not include my two biggest winners (You can see my max win is £4634 in the screenshot).

This for me is very promising, of course I still need more results. I want at least a 1000 bet's before I analyse the data better, preferably double that. So far it's taken me about 1 month near enough to gather nearly 300 bets, so I think I will hit the 1000 bet's mark in July sometime (I'm away for 2/3rds of June). Current ROI is not going to be sustainable long-run of course, however I have already had one big'ish draw-down which took a while to climb out of.

Graph of March/April months (Yea I know the graphs are a bit messed up with the labels but it's going to get fixed!). At least it gives an idea how my results are going.

March

April


I should be able to do the analysis of results within my database by then, hopefully the developer can implement analysing tools in the next month or two, at least the basis of them.

It's a lot of effort recording all the bet's and information that I require, however I actually find it very rewarding and enjoyable, not only that, I am actively learning more about betting and statistical analysis just from doing my own work, as well as reading other sites. I could actually see betting rather than trading being  potentially a bigger part of my quest to profit consistently in the future.

On the subject of the database, the developer is a very busy person at the moment. The new version is coming, he just has a lot of stuff to do for it, he's assured me he is working through it though so I'm hoping the next version is not too far off now. I know I keep mentioning it but it really is coming, just taking longer than expected...I have to realise he has a real-life also!

That's about it for now, my next post will hopefully be actually based on how I've been trading, in-depth about my progress and some screenshots of matches and my trades.
Might be longer than a week, as this week and next week I'm going to be limited to when I can trade.

Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Trading again - Database Correction Progress.

Just a very quick post to say that I am officially trading again as from today! I'll start to post up my progress whenever I get time and my P/L screenshots.

As for the database, the developer was on his Easter break before, however he will begin working on the changes/fixes posted in my last post today.

Hopefully it won't be much longer now until the new version is released, then I can start gathering feedback from bloggers and some forums.

Well, this was the shortest post I've ever written I think, just wanted to get that out there!

Thursday, 17 April 2014

Database Update - Part 3

Further update.

Below is a list of feedback/things to do for the developer.

As you can see it's quite an extensive list, however it's better we get it right and have something that is as bug free as possible for release to you users!

Adding Support for Other sports - Fields to add
===============================================

* Football
- Home Team (List of teams similar to list of tennis players, ability to add a team)
- Away Team (Same as above)
- League (List of different leagues to choose from - We will do main leagues for starters then add support for other leagues once we have feedback).

- Me to gather list of leagues for you.
- Me to gather list of teams for you.



* Horse-Racing
- Jockey (Ability to add Jockeys, Maybe I can find a jockey list - Will ask for user help on this).
- Race-Track (Ability to add tracks, but a list of tracks needed - should not be difficult as there isn't a huge amount at all when compared to Tennis players for example!).
- Horses (Ability to add horses)


These are two of the main sports, so it's best we get these correct, along with Tennis. Once I have more feedback in the near future and anything else
that needs adding, we can then look into adding other sports on a asked/demand basis.

I will gather feedback from sports bloggers and forums to help expand the data needed and what would be needed for other sports.

Conversion 'Issues'
=====================

* Currently conversion is 100% a success in regards to actually importing data from the 'old' database.
  The issue for me was, I was not able to 'skip' a sport I wanted to relate, I will talk about why this was an issue below.
  I had some others such as 'bookmaker' from before that I was not able to relate too, I had to relate it to Tennis at first, it then puts all my
  bookmaker 'strategies' e.g Freebets, freespins as a selectable strategy for Tennis Betting. I was able to remedy this by deleting the strategy from the strategy list.
  Still it would be nice to be able to skip if possible, something that is not linkable at the moment, if we can import that sports data at a later date?

* When I linked my tennis trading and betting to the Tennis template, it causes all of my strategies for both to be in one big list now.
  Unlike before when they were separate. So this means I actually had three(3) lots of 'Match odds' from the strategies drop down list.
  It also meant I had to go through all of my tennis strategies to find my betting strategies. Rather annoying and untidy :)
  Since I'm not trading at the moment, it's not a big issues, I extracted the new database again and set so I only related my Tennis betting
  to the tennis template, but this 'issue' needs to be fixed/address ASAP.




Small fixes In no particular order:
===================================

* Difference - If you enter a difference then hit modify, then go to re-modify the trade again, the difference figure entered then disappears.
* Sport on the trades details part on the trades overview screen, this needs to be swapped with date - just tidying up really so it is easier to read / make sense.
* ROI needs to swap places with Difference on the trades overview screen in the trade details part. Same area as above.
* Probability needs to be as a percentage, rather than just as a plain number, no % sign next to it on the trades overview screen.
* When you add a new trade, it does not show up in the trades overview until you click update.
* When you click update on the trades overview screen, it scrolls all the way back up to the top. This is rather annoying, is it possible for it to stay at the trade I was modifying.
  With the old database I had the above problem when adding a new trade, then had to scroll down to see the new trade had been added. Again can we make sure this does not occur in the new version :)
  Actually, even if I click modify trade on the trades overview then click cancel, it still takes me back up to the top of the trades again in trades overview, so this is another annoyance!


Other issues
============

* Unable to delete sport categories I have added from the sports tab/list once I have added them. Require a 'delete' button'.
* Require a sort button/s to the above issue, looks like it does it alphabetically but gives more flexibility to users in regards to layout.
* 'Strategies' As mentioned above, when two sport categories like Tennis Betting and Tennis Trading are linked to sport 'Tennis' all strategies
  end up in one huge list, you will need to see if you can find a ingenious way to counteract this :)

Graphs
======

* Currently the graphs are a mess for me and another use mentioned them.
  I have attached a screenshot how the graph shows for my recent results.
  Is it possible we can A) Get different graphs and B) the graphs to be able to go 'full screen'
  Maybe if we double click the graph we can make it go full screen?

I have also attached a screenshot of a graph that may look better for laying out the months data and has a much better 'look' then the current graphs (They are not very good to be honest! :) ).

Future Additions
=================

* Preferences button next between 'Data' and 'Help' in the top left hand of the program. This will be worked on at a later date, but just so that I don't forget about it. Here you will be able to turn on one click actions, font for example, any other preference options etc etc.




On a side note my betting so far over 184 bets total since the end of March has prodcued the following figures, the results are based on a £10k bank using 1/10th fractional kelly staking:

ATP +£1599.31
WTA -£1484.59
Davis Cup +£8253.90

Still a long way to go yet and I will need to analyse and break down the bets in greater detail later on in the year, this is a long-term 'project' of mine not short-term so season long, but will post an update every month or so on it.

Tuesday, 15 April 2014

Database Update - Part 2

So I'd like to just give a quick update where me and the developer are at with the new version of that database.

I have currently, what you could call, a beta version of it.

First some good news.

The conversion feature works flawlessly for me and my data from the old database version is in the new database without any issues!

Which means, anyone else who has entered data in the old version should also have no issues with converting there data into the new database.

Secondly, the player list is pretty damn impressive that he has added for Tennis. There's something like 1800+ ATP players and 700+ WTA players currently in the database..I need to check the figures again to be sure but it's pretty big. This alone for me is going to make my task of typing information out, a whole lot less work.

You can now select between 5 surfaces and enter what round of the tournament your bets/trades took place in.

The whole new layout is wonderful in my opinion, the developer has worked really hard to create the new changes and it shows in my opinion!

Were starting to get the ground base in for the start of what I hope will be a very polished product for traders and bettors alike. It's still in it's infancy in my view but it's starting to develop, now it's just a case of increasing that development.

Now the bad news, I only had a very quick go and there is already small number of issues that need to be sorted out before it get's released.

I'm going to make a list tomorrow and post that list on the blog, I'd like to let all users know what we plan to get fixed before releasing the new version, my estimate of last Sunday was optimistic to say the least...

We'd rather release something that is stable and has everything working and allows the user to transfer there old data and enter, modify and delete new older without the need for a major patch update.

Therefore, we'll delay the release until these teething problems have been fixed.

Now back onto some good news - This process should not take too long to do, I will have more information tomorrow hopefully once I have spoken to him about the issues that need fixing.

Lastly, once the new version is out, I will be looking to get feedback from sports betting and trading forums by putting it out there and asking people to test it, use it and give feedback on what sports they would like to be added and what data they would wish to be stored.

The likely-hood is, we will stick to main and popular sports first, four or five. Tennis, Football, Horse-Racing etc

Once we believe we have those working correctly with the data that is required, then we can look to expand on the list of sports, however, one step at a time.

Last lastly! I'm aware of the graphs not being all that helpful/useful at the moment, I will ask the developer to re-do these, the graphs may well become a bit of a WIP (Work In Progress), should the style/format of them change over-time due to feedback, however I will make sure that a much better working version of graphs is done for the next release.

Once the above has been done, I will speak to the developer about designing custom reports and allowing users to breakdown data they have stored for in-depth analyses.

I'd like to apologise in advance, if my grammar is quite bad. I tend to write my posts far too quick.

Friday, 11 April 2014

Database Questions and Answers

Following a comment from The Horseman and something I had been wondering for a while.

What happens when the database changes, can you still transfer your old data into the new database?

The simple answer is: Yes.

I've spoke to the developer this afternoon with a series of back and forth messages. Here's what he had to say.

"The way I will try to do it is to have the program convert all the data automatically. I will take your trades.db and build a process that will run on the start of the program to change it into the new format. If this works, it would be the same for other people.

After you have verified that all is still OK with your existing trades, I think it will be safe for others too. Although it’s important to advise them to backup their trades.db file first of course!

In fact, you can send me your own trades.db file when you want. Tonight, if you can. Then I can start work on the conversion function. You can still add stuff to your own program until I send you the new version of the program, that version should then convert your newer file without problems too."


"As an additional comment: it would even be possible for me to write the function without your database file, but I would rather have some ‘real’ data to test it with than my made up gibberish trades :) Seeing it work is better than expecting it to work you see :)
 
 
Some more below
"Aaaand something else I just thought of (sorry about this) it would be worth to ask your users which sports they have added already (so, base sports like Tennis) and to determine the sport-specific fields that would be worth supporting already. I see a mention of horse racing in the comment you pasted, I guess it would be nice to add that one already right?
 
Then, for each new sport, please tell me what additional data (this can be expanded over time too of course) can already be added.
 
- For tennis we have: player 1, player 2, round and surface at this point.
- For darts I just did: player 1, player 2, round and tip type (this as you know – is just a place holder).
 
- For horseracing: jockey, surface, hurdles/no hurdles? It might be worth polling the users that are betting on horse races about what would be good to have. Like I said, it can always be expanded but it would be good to have a few fields in there that would make some sense.
 
Your users will have created their own ‘sports’ like you did for “Tennis – trading” and “Tennis – betting”. Part of the database migration process will be a dialog window asking users to tie a sport they made themselves to a supported base sport with dropdown boxes. (So in your case, you would select “Tennis” for those two categories.)
 
If database migration goes well, we will have the base for a very advanced tool I think. It’s a bit clumsy now, but it’s the right thing to do.
 
That’s it for now. I promise!"
 
 
"So to recap: your other users need not worry, their data will not be lost, nor should it have to be converted by me by hand."

Tuesday, 8 April 2014

Database with Major Changes - New version incoming!

Hi,

Well it's been about 2 weeks now since my last post.

Since then I haven't traded a dime and I won't be until I finish another project off, not related to trading. I literally just don't have the time to commit fully to trading until it's done, so I don't want to, good discipline from myself in a way because I'm not forcing myself to trade when I don't feel I won't be 100% focused to the task in the long run. Once that project is out of the way (May), I will be back to posting results about my trading.

Secondly, I have been working hard recording paper betting results. Reason I have not posted any on my blog is for two reasons.

Firstly, I literally do not have the time to do so as in the beginning of tournaments it can take me +/- up to 2 hours just to go through a list of matches for both men and women's games. Therefore I don't want to have to spend more time each night posting them on the blog.

Secondly, I am recording a LOT of matches. I'm trying to find where my model has selections being profitable (what % chance range the opponent has to win). For example, 20-30% chance, 31-40% chance etc.

It already seems relatively clear to me from past results (those collected from last year when I was posting picks every day), that certain % chance of winning probabilities are not providing a decent profit. Therefore it's pointless me just writing out everything I'm doing, since after all I'm mainly doing this for myself.

Also, I only started recording every single match, after I read some information that I came across just browsing a website I was taking a look at. It seemed that my model's chances of winning a match were not far off in the majority of cases then what they had posted. This led me to believe that my model may actually be fairly accurate, so I decided I needed to record every match that I have time to do on both the ATP/WTA tour and gather more data so that I can break it down at a later point in time, analyse, then hopefully have found an edge.

After also looking further upon this website, it made me realise I was most likely on the right track last year, with breaking down the odds ranges and seeing what each range had made profit wise.

So I made a few major tweaks, firstly, as already stated, I am recording every single match that is within a certain parameter. Certain matches are being filtered out.

Secondly, I am recording a lot more information. This leads me to talk about the new database that is coming very shortly.

If you were interested in the database before, continue reading!

I say new, it's the old database, with major changes.

Here are a few of the screenshots below the developer has sent to me.



 The above screenshot shows the new sports screen.

Before I had 'Tennis - Trading' and 'Tennis - Betting' in my database.

Because the sports will now be hard coded, I will be able to create a Tennis Trading and Tennis Betting related on the Tennis 'Supported Sports' template.

There were several reasons for this change.

Firstly, I wanted to be able to add some information for Tennis Betting results, that I did not want to add for Tennis Trading results. Some of the information I didn't need, or was not applicable to Tennis Trading results.

However, when talking to the developer about it, this would cause issues with the previous setup of the database, wanting to add some information for trades and some for betting, in the current setup it wasn't technically proficient or really feasible. Therefore he presented a solution to this issue, hard coded sports.

Now, I can create what is essentially a sport based on Tennis in the supported sports part, as seen in the screenshot above.

If you read on below and see all of the new features that have been implemented, you will also see that this information is optional.




This screenshot shows the new trade page, all the sports will now be 'hard coded' into the database, there were reasons for doing so, but I will explain in the next post, when the next version of the database is available (coming very soon).

As you can see, you can choose who is playing the match. Player A/B. In the future you will be able to filter certain players and see what profit/loss was made with certain players playing. 
There will also be a more in-depth breakdown of information on players - This will be coming in later versions of the database.

The list of players currently contains around 2,000 players (ATP) so far - so I'm told by the developer. 
Less typing! You will be able to search for a player or click the drop down box and select the player/s.

There is also the ability to add a player if they are not already in the list

Round - This is what round of the tournament the match is taking place in. Future versions will allow you to factor round and other information into a report/statistics sheet breakdown.

e.g, You can see see what profit you made in each round of a tournament or in general, qualifiers (not yet added), first round, second round etc all the way up to finals.

Surface - Hard. I.Hard, Carpet, Grass and Clay have all been added and can be selected for each trade/bet. In the future you will be able to filter results by surface in conjunction with other information, e.g probability and odds ranges. 

Probability - You can enter the probability that your selection will win, this is for betting purposes, I requested it for my betting, it is optional and does not need to be entered.

This is helpful for people betting who may be using kelly criterion and have a probability figure they can enter. (Optional)

Odds - You can enter the odds of your trades or betting selections. 
In the future you will be able to see ranges of odds and see what profit/loss was made between each odds range. (Optional I believe)

Difference - This was something I asked for myself and is related to my betting. Again, optional field so no figure needs to be entered. (Optional)

Stategy - Same as before as far as I'm aware.

The plan is that in the future, I and anyone else who uses the database, will be able to breakdown results in a much, much more in-depth way. By Player, by Surface, By probability range etc.

There is a lot more to come on this, but it will take some time to be implemented, also this is more for me then anyone else, however I'm sure it will be very useful for others.

I've made the future statistics seem quite simple for each part of the database, however. Some reports may contain multiple pieces of information in the future.

For example. I personally want to be able to see all probability ranges that I have selected combined with a surface, to give a breakdown of the profit, S/R and ROI for example of those ranges with a certain surface.

In the future I imagine there will be a way to export results into excel. This is a long-time off yet and needs to be seen if it really is both feasible and necessary. However, I see it becoming something that people will request at some point down the line.


 
That's it for this post.

I will discuss with the developer about adding a 'change log' for future re-iterations of the database.

Again, we don't really have a version number right now, that's something that we will discuss for the future also.

Hopefully it will be under a week, then the new version will be available.

Any questions feel free to leave a comment and I will reply as soon as I have time.