Wednesday, 31 December 2014

Mubadala Exhibition - Picks

Even though it's only an exhibition tournament, I'll still be providing picks for it.

I will also have hopman cup picks in the next few days also, as well as the first picks for the first matches on the tour.

Trading for me 'officially' begins tomorrow, there was no money in the ITF tournaments last week. Luckily a few of the hopman cup matches are on in the morning/breakfast hours UK time so I do expect there to be liquidity in the markets (some not bad matches either), so I should be able to trade a couple of games before I go back to work next week at least.

Anyhow, pick for the first matches in the exhibition tournament:

Almagro @ 3.44  - Getting an early price here, well aware he hasn't played since the first half of 2014

All prices will be based on pinnacle sports prices, unless otherwise stated.


I'll be providing some under and over total game picks as well, I have no idea how well these will perform, so I'll see how the season goes and how they perform.

Tuesday, 23 December 2014

Tennis Season - Let's begin 2015

Whilst I have some time, due to the fact my boss sent me home from work as there was not a lot to do, it make's sense to lay out some kind of plan for the 2015 season.

Firstly, the blog.

I will be making an effort to update this weekly, in regards to my results, if for some reason this isn't possible, I will post my profit/loss results when I get a chance too, I won't miss out any gaps.

As I stated in my last post, 2015 season started for me a few days ago, I had a green on the exhibition match of Federer vs Wawrinka (These are trade-able, as long as your careful imo).

So my first profit and loss for my new season will be from the 21st December, I will try to do them Sunday to Sunday now, and keep with that format throughout the next year.

Next in line is the tennis betting. I will be recording a new column, for my bets, which is basically the difference / % of how big the difference between the bookmaker's price and my price is.

I want to make sure a bigger % results in smooth profit line, in reality it should, I need to go through all my results and enter the data then put it into Excel and test.

I will be posting all the bet's where there should be a small enough edge (Like I did some time ago), I want to gather a lot of results. However, my main goal is to keep an eye on the 'filtered' bets.

This basically means, I will be recording a lot of bet's for back-testing reasons. These may or not be profitable long term, however the filtered bet's should (SHOULD being the word here), be profitable over the season.

It will be interesting anyway, again, just paper exercise for me. I'll be giving it at least 3 months, hopefully by June next year I will have sizeable bank to start betting as well as trading and the picks will be in profit.

I will post the picks on the blog and the prices I take, I'll most likely use pinnacle again, even though I can't bet there, there interface makes it easy for me to screenshot all the matches for WTA/ATP tournament/round in one go.

I will not be updating the individual win/loss for the picks on my blog, it's too time consuming and I will have all the data in my database anyway.

At the end of each month I will do a bigger post about how the month has gone overall for my trading and how the picks are going.

I will make a note which of the bet's are the filtered ones.

I'll try my best to keep on top of this, 2015 is going to be a busy one for me with betting/trading.

Boxing

I will be posting my views on boxing, basically from this date onwards.

Boxing is a funny old sport at times, however, a lot of fight's odd's are definitely well out of line at times. I think it's one of the sport's where good returns can be made.

Whenever there is an opportunity for a bet, I will post it on my blog with reasons (I follow boxing closely).

Database

Have had little feedback on this, I will basically ask the developer to help me with things I need now. I will post the new version whenever they are available, people can of course feel free to download it still. Unless there is demand, I will be focusing on tailoring it towards my needs from now on.



Monday, 22 December 2014

Profit & Loss - 11th Nov - 28th Nov

Been well over a month since my last post, no I didn't go hide under a rock, get hit by a bus, break both arms etc, I simply locked myself out of Betfair for a month. However, I did not post my profit & loss before I did this.

All I remember was, I traded badly, that was about it. A month break however has left me refreshed and ready for the new season (my new season started yesterday, I will trade on the ITF events (if there is enough money, can be done for small stakes most likely) and if I get the time of course.

I'd be lying if I said I spent weeks looking or reading up on tennis trading, I haven't.

I simply am not going to 'rush' to trade games this year like I did towards the end of this year.

If I can only get a game or two in the evening so be it, as long as I am patient, I know I grow my bank steadily but also quickly. I just want to be able to not dive in, scrambling to get the geek's toy open and diving in, that's what cost me a lot of money this year. I started to getting grips with things at the back end of this year, however I still had lapses (bad one's at times). Lapses being money management. I believe I'm now more ready to accept losses then before, I know this is pivotal to given me a good 2015.

Profit for horse-racing, loss for tennis.

Enough text-babble.

Screenshot below.



My next post will be about 2015, also I will be doing tennis picks again, posting them on my blog, as well as boxing picks.

The tennis picks/tips I will post on the blog, however I will only be updating my database, it is too time consuming to keep updating the blog daily, so instead I will do a profit/loss figure for them at the end of each month. Anyone wishing to follow (at your own peril), should track there own results.