Wednesday, 21 January 2015

22/01/15 - 23/01/15 - WTA Australian Open

Just the two for the first of round 3:

Hradecka vs Goerges: Hradecka @ 2.92
Wickmayer vs Errani: Wickmayer @ 2.96

Tuesday, 20 January 2015

21/01/15 - 22/01/2015 - WTA Australian Open

Just the three:

Allertova vs Cornet: Allertova @ 3.31
Dellaqua vs Keys: Dellaqua @ 2.55
Tomljanovic vs Lepchenko: Tomljanovic @ 3.22

20/01/2015 - 21/01/2015 - WTA Australian Open

Some for tonight, apologies for the day.

Tomorrow's matches also will be up later this evening.

Siniakova vs Begu: Siniakova @ 1.82
Vinci vs Makarova: Vinci @ 3.29
McHale vs Witthoeft: McHale @ 2.19
Hradecka vs Hercog: Hradecka @ 1.91
Mattek-Sands vs Mladenovic: Mattek-Sands @ 2.37
Voegele vs Garcia: Voegele @ 2.71

Hasn't been the best of start's to a grandslam, however the player's tend to put more effort in and it's harder to find value usually on the odd's for these events.

Not really a bad run or anything anyway, I expect variance along the way and overall the women's main tour match picks have had an excellent start to the season, I am not recording any men's bet's over this grandslam, as I don't have the time and I need to adjust the model for 5 set matches.

I am only about 7-8% down on my peak amount (highest amount I hit) since I started placing real-bet's and I'm above my starting bank going into tonight, so it's not bad at all, I will be able to workout the profit for the filtered bet's at the end of the month when I carry out my end of  month analysis.

Sunday, 18 January 2015

19/01/2015 - 20/01/2015 - WTA Australian Open

Picks for the last of round 1 matches.

Brengle vs Petkovic: Brengle @ 2.32
Date-Krumm vs Tatishvili: Date-Krumm @ 2.51
Krunic vs Davis: Krunic @ 2.20
Falconi vs Kanepi: Falconi @ 3.87
Zheng vs Hantuchova: Zheng @ 2.11
Giorgi vs Penetta: Giorgi @ 2.30
Tomljanovic vs Rogers: Tomljanovic @ 1.67
Schiavone vs Vandeweghe: Schiavone @ 3.25
Tsurenko vs Keys: Tsurenko @ 2.91
Vekic vs Barthel: Vekic @ 2.65
Chang vs Zheng: Chang @ 2.73
Jabeur vs Zvonareva: Jabeur @ 2.28

Price corrections

There is an error on the Dulgheru pick, looks like I have put down her set odds price by accident.

I will be taking her current price of 3.63 instead for my records.

Apologies for the error, I'm sure anyone following would of got a lot better price however!

Saturday, 17 January 2015

WTA Australian Open - 18/01/2015

Some picks for the first matches of the Australian Open. Unfortunately the qualifying matches haven't performed well so far, it could be variance or it could be the filter needs to slightly trade for those matches. The picks for them were based on the same criteria I use for the WTA main tour matches, however this may need to be changed. For the time being I will just record any matches, for stuff like Challenger's, qualifier's and men's hard court, until I have enough data that I feel I can give winning long-term picks.

The WTA Main Tour picks will continue as these have made a steady profit so far since the start of the season. They are also producing a steady amount of picks for the amount of matches.

WTA Australian Open:

Dulgheru vs Gajdosova: Dulgheru @ 2.88
Bencic vs Goerges: Bencic @ 1.81
Maria vs Peng: Maria @ 3.44
Voracova vs Arruabarrena-Vecino: Voracova @ 1.72
Schmiedlova vs Scheepers: Schmiedlova @ 2.05
Y.Duan vs Mattek-Sands: Y.Duan @ 2.38
Siniakova vs Vesnina: Siniakova @ 2.26
U.Radwanska vs Diyaz: U.Radwanska @ 2.50
Foretz Gacon vs McHale: Foretz Gacon @ 2.17
Gavrilova vs Bertens: Gavrilova @ 1.51

Boxing - Abril vs Matthews (March)

Abril vs Matthews:

I originally did not look at the odd's for this fight as I presumed Abril would of been around a 1.15-1.20 favourite. After looking around, you can get 1.36 on him. Which in my opinion is a bit ridiculous. The only reason for the higher price will be because he is fighting away in Liverpool (Matthews home-town when it comes to boxing).

Abril has fought world class opponent's and beaten them, he got robbed vs Brandon Rios when he supposedly 'lost' that fight, it was a robbery and everyone knows it. He has fought a few other decent fighter's and won and lost (Lundy (Lost to) and Bogere (Won against) are both good fighters, much better than matthews. and his last opponent wasn't too bad either).

Matthews on the other hand has lost at European level, he lost to Stephen Ormand, a fight I backed Ormand at 7 or 8-1 in to win on points. He has also lost countless time's at domestic level, although he has strung a few win's together, he barely beat Martin Gethin, who is domestic level, knocked out tommy coyle whilst losing very wide on points to pull out a wonder punch. He has also lost to Marsilli who is European level and got stopped in that fight by a body punch (something he does not like). Against Ormand he looked very tired after about 8 rounds, although Ormand is quite a busy fighter mind you.

The gulf in class is huge and I feel 1.36 on Abril is VERY generous, Derry hasn't fought anyone near his level before and in all honestly shouldn't really be fighting for a world title (in my opinion), although he has been a great servant for the sport so no one would begrudge him one. We have to be honest though and Matthews isn't even the best lightweight in the country, never mind near world-class.

Matthew only chance realistically one would feel, is to win via knockout. Tommy Coyle was winning virtually every round against him until Matthew pulled out a hail-Mary punch and he hasn't won a fight above domestic class yet. I just don't see Abril being troubled in all honesty and he should win by a wide points decision comfortably, matthews only chance is one big punch in my opinion.

1.36 can be taken at paddypower or coral at the moment.

Friday, 16 January 2015

16/01/2015 - 17/01/2015 - WTA Hobart Final + Australian Open qualifiers

Last batch of tips before I start doing the Australian Open Women.

WTA Hobart:

Brengle vs Watson: Brengle @ 2.52

WTA Australian Open - Qualifiers:

Govortsova vs Foretz: Foretz @ 3.06
Bychkova vs Panova: Bychkova @ 2.40
Peer vs Hogenkamp: Hogenkamp @ 1.91
Wang vs Jabeur: Wang @ 2.51
Liu vs Martic: Liu @ 2.40

Removed Kuwata match as it was a mistake.
Removed Piter match as it was a mistake.

Australian Open Women's selections will be coming when I get a chance, most likely tomorrow or Sunday.

Thursday, 15 January 2015

15/01/15 - 16/01/15 - WTA

Horrific results last night for me in the qualifiers.

Hopefully thing's will turn around but it was something like only 6 out of 22 picks won.

I'm not able to get on them at the moment anyway, so that's a bit of a saving grace for me. I will be keeping an eye on the qualifier result's the more I get of them to see how they are performing.

My main concern is with how many picks are being spat out by the model, it's concerning me a little.
It may also be to do with the odds on offer more then anything else, not being as good as main tour matches. I'll give it time anyway to perform, if the qualifier's perform badly over a reasonable number of pick's then I will look to scrap them and concentrate on WTA and ATP tour level matches only (no qualifier's basically).

Anyway tonight's batch.

WTA Hobart:

Brengle vs Nara: Brengle @ 2.11

WTA Australian Open Qualifiers:

Buyukakcay vs Golubic: Golubic @ 3.31
Razzano vs Maria: Maria @ 2.16
Jabeur vs Namigata: Namigata @ 2.92
Karatantcheva vs Panova: Karatantcheva @ 1.66
Peer vs Rodionova: Peer @ 1.86
Bychkova vs Pereira: Bychkova @ 2.04
Wang vs Glushko: Wang @ 2.34
Kucova vs Zanevska: Kucova @ 2.85
Mitu vs Kuwata: Kuwata @ 2.28
Amanmuradova vs Tatishvili: Amanmuradova @ 2.88
Foretz vs Briant: Foretz @ 1.98
Piter vs Eguchi: Piter @ 2.94
Moore vs Glatch: Moore @ 3.01
Hozumi vs Voracova: Hozumi @ 2.33
Liu vs Krejcikova: Liu @ 2.42
Yi-Fan Xu vs Putintseva: Yi-Fan Xu @ 2.71

Wednesday, 14 January 2015

Australian Open - Women's Qualifier's - Part 2

WTA Australian Open - Qualifiers:

There should be no issues with qualifying matches as they should make a profit long-term, although the profit is likely to be reduced as the odd's often are not as good as main tour matches. However you follow at your own risk like always.

If you are not comfortable, stick to the WTA Main tour picks instead. I will have a breakdown of results at the end of this week, for WTA, ATP, qualifiers etc.

Note: There are two Kichenok's and Zhang's in the list. These are different players not duplicates!

Also, I can not at the moment, make my own bet's on qualifier's, I use pinnacle odds for my records, however I use a different site at the moment to place my bet's (UK, so I can't bet at pinnacle any longer). They do not do qualification matches unfortunately, so for the time being, I'll have to suffice with recording odds from Pinnacle. Hopefully later in the year I'll be able to spread my money around and get on the qualifiers at good prices, as long as they stay profitable of course!

Abduraimova vs Buyukakcay: Abduraimova @ 3.54
Golubic vs Tjandramulia: Golubic @ 1.38
Kania vs Kontaveit: Kania @ 2.34
Kovinic vs Razzano: Razzano @ 1.86
Maria vs Barbieri: Barbieri @ 3.80
Pereira vs Kostova: Kostova @ 2.26
Vogt vs Siegemund: Siegemund @ 1.71
Veronica Cepede Royg vs Eguchi: Veronica Cepede Royg @ 3.47
Karatantcheva vs Linette: Linette @ 2.00
Konta vs Tatishvili: Konta @ 2.00
Kucova vs Yung-Jan Chan: Yung-Jan Chan @ 1.43
Kichenok vs Piter: Kichenok @ 1.92
Zhang vs Zanevska: Zhang @ 3.28
Zhang vs Panova: Zhang @ 2.45
Bogdan vs Martic: Bogdan @ 2.32
Foretz vs Duque-Marino: Foretz @ 2.07
Mayr-Achleitner vs Liu: Liu @ 1.54
Ozaki vs Govortsova: Ozaki @ 3.47
Voracova vs Zhu: Zhu @ 1.78

That's it for tonight's matches, I'll be taking a deserved break from entering result after result into my database on the weekend and preparing myself for the Australian Open..not looking forward to processing so many matches.

Australian Open - Women Qualifier's

 WTA Australian Open Qualifiers Part1:

There should be no issues with qualifying matches as they should make a profit long-term, although the profit is likely to be reduced as the odd's often are not as good as main tour matches. However you follow at your own risk like always.

If you are not comfortable, stick to the WTA Main tour picks instead. I will have a breakdown of results at the end of this week, for WTA, ATP, qualifiers etc.

Aoyama vs Hogenkamp: Aoyama @ 3.01
Melnikova vs Rodionova: Melnikova @ 2.57
Pliskova vs Namigata: Pliskova @ 1.76

Part 2 will be coming shortly, part 2 is also likely to be a lot bigger list.

15/01/2015 - WTA Sydney

WTA Sydney:

Pliskova vs Kerber: Kerber @ 1.76

Tuesday, 13 January 2015

14/01/2015 - WTA Sydney

Last one for today:

Muguruza vs Kerber: Kerber @ 2.13

14/01/2015 - WTA

Upcoming matches:

WTA Sydney:

Zahlavova Strycova vs Pironkova: Pironkova @ 2.38

WTA Hobart:

Riske vs Jovanovski: Jovanovski @ 2.84

Monday, 12 January 2015

Better Betting, Treacle Trading, Ravshing Results?

 Better Betting:

To sum up this post.

Betting (all though using paper amounts) has been going well, I'm ready to take the plunge and use a small amount of my money to start placing my bet's. £200 to be exact (was £50 but I couldn't place bet's below £2 annoyingly). I'm just going to see how fast I can increase this using kelly staking.

This means I am finally going 'live' with my betting. I will be recording as I do now, however I will be paper recording as I was doing before, there's no need for my to duplicate my results in my database and cause me more work and time (something I am getting less and less it feels).

As long as the result's in my database are going up, so should be my £200 bank.

Secondly, anyone who is following my tips/picks so far, please let me know how you are getting on. I'd love to know any issues you have, what could be done better etc, more feedback is better.
I have a few idea's of my own that I want to try out in the upcoming months, to help make the process of sifting through the data and recording bet's quicker, it really can be time demanding when there are several tournament's, I effectively do 12 hour working day's also 4 days a week so I am often straight home from work and then into my tennis data.

Treacle Trading:

Trading is to begin again for me, the blog after all was to do more about trading the betting, but it's recently become the other way around which was not planned. Maybe I'm just better at sticking to betting, anyway I hope to be able to show some results soon. To be honest, I had a terrible start to the year, with a loss around -£200-300 in total. Same old errors. Everytime I trade, I do something bad but learn something new, or how to do something better. Not well enough yet obviously.
So far it feels I am wading through treacle, I'll get there. 

Ravishing Results:

Well this was a failed attempt to put an R word with Results. Hopefully they become good, in the near future (Trading I mean!).

For betting, well I'll be recording my bet's placed (screenshot's). I'm sure I'm on a good path with this, I just need to fiddle around with the men's side of thing's more. I'm getting more data though every day which is a positive.

Graphs will be incoming at the end of the month. Because people like shiny things and graphs with chart's that go up rather then down are shiny, right?

The next blog post, rather then tip's posts, I hope to talk about the mental strain of attempting to trade and bet and also the psychological demon's that seem to possess me still with trading.

12/01/15 - WTA Sydney + Hobart

A good night overall, I accidentally posted Tsurenko vs Kerber. This should not have been a tip given my current criteria, so my apologies on that one, first time I have posted a women's tip that did not fit the current criteria.

So far though, for the women, so good. A little annoying Lucic-Baroni retired a game too early, for it to count in my records and the fact that Zheng won the first set then retired a game into the second set on her match, however these thing's tend to even out in the long-term.

So far, the women's tip's are off to a flying start, my records will differ slightly as there is some that would of made my criteria, however I have been a little cautious with (Basically, just low priced tips).

I will be posting some graphs at the end of the month.

With regards to the men. I need more results still, however it looks like I will need to make some adjustment's for them and hard-court's. I'll be able to start shaping what I need to do with these, once I have more data.

Unfortunately, I can't always get the best prices as the market moves quickly and I'm at work. The European tournament's should make thing's a lot easier for me though.

Here's more for tonight's action.

WTA Sydney:

Halep vs Pliskova: Pliskova @ 3.81
Carla Suarez Navarro vs Makarova: Carla Suarez Navarro @ 1.83
Gajdosova vs Cibulkova: Gajdosova @ 3.01
Gavrilova vs Kerber: Gavrilova @ 3.48 (Price will be updated nearer to the match time).

WTA Hobart:

Watson vs Stephens: Watson @ 2.51
Giorgi vs Kanepi: Giorgi @ 2.73

That's it for this evening's matches.

Sunday, 11 January 2015

11/01/2015 - WTA Sydney + Hobart

Rest of the tips done for today:

WTA Hobart:

Larsson vs Zheng: Zheng @ 2.20
Hogenkamp vs Hantuchova: Hogenkamp @ 2.56

WTA Sydney:

Cibulkova vs Mladenovic: Cibulkova @ 1.55
Hercog vs Ka Pliskova: Hercog @ Take SP
Tsurenko vs Kerber: Tsurenko @ 4.59

11/01/2015 - WTA Hobart

Cepevlova vs Beck: Cepelova @ 2.98
Riske vs McHale: Riske @ 1.58
Jovanovski vs Lucic-Baroni: Jovanoski @ 2.92
Knapp vs Tomljanovic: Knapp @ 2.11
Rybarikova vs Watson: Rybarikova @ 1.86

More tips to come later, majority of women done though.

WTA Sydney - 11/01/2015

Safarova vs Stosur: Stosur @ 2.80
Suarez Navarro vs Lisick: Suarez Navarro @ 1.90
Petkovic vs Gadjosova: Gadjosova @ TAKE SP (Starting Price)

I will have more tips up later on this evening.

Saturday, 10 January 2015

Tips resume tomorrow

Been away this weekend, tips will be put up again tomorrow and during next week.

A good start to the season overall, the women's as expected, have performed admirably so far on the hardcourt surface. Men's on the other hand, well I noticed a pattern with these already.

Again, no men tips' until I have enough data.

Until tomorrow.

Thursday, 8 January 2015

08/01/2015-09/01/2015 - WTA

Just the one for tonight for the women.

Hopman Cup:

Cornet vs Radwanska: Cornet @ 3.50

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Deeper analysis

Deeper Analysis.

Now I have completed new refinements to my Excel spreadsheet, I will be able to analyse results much better.

So far, the men's result's haven't been great. I didn't capture much from the hard court season last year, so I've gone into this year's a little blind on that side of thing's.

I will give it until the end of the month, before I update my spreadsheet and add the new results to it.

So far from my data, I am able to see that WTA on surfaces hard + clay, I should be able to profit from (Hard especially seems to be skewed with a greater profit level).

ATP Men last year made a very nice profit also, however it seems I currently do not have enough data for Men on hardcourts. Therefore it make's sense for the time being, to not supply men hardcourt pick's until I have enough data. I of course will be recording them myself.

I think this is a good way to go, to air on the side of caution.

Secondly, I noticed a better way to analyse my results. It's only when I filter the % chance that I am able to get smoother graph's, changing the odds doesn't really make a difference to the graph long-term it seems.

I will be taking a more in-depth look into all my gathered results, at the end of January after the Australian Open, that way I will have a day or two to export them from my database into the Excel spreadsheet.

I know a few people are following the picks, which is why I decided to take this action, luckily, I will be able to capture quite a lot of hard court data for the men in the next 3 months (including I.hard also!)

Clay tournament's should see the resume of men's picks.

08/01/15-09/01/15 - WTA Shenzhen

Just the one for this evening's match:

Diyas vs Zheng: Zheng @ 2.76

08/01/15-09/01/15 - WTA Auckland & WTA Brisbane

WTA Auckland:

Zahlavova Strycova vs Vandeweghe @ 2.21: Vandeweghe @ 2.21

WTA Brisbane:

Kerber vs Svitolina: Svitolina @ 2.94
Kudryavtseva vs Lepchenko: Kudryavtseva @ 3.50

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Another one for Doha..

Garcia-Lopez vs Tatsuma Ito: Tatsuma Ito @ 2.49
Hsun-Lu vs Carreno-Busta: Carreno-Busta @ 3.05

07/01/2015-08/01/2015 - ATP Doha

ATP Doha:

Basilashvili vs Karlovic: Basilashvili @ 3.46
kavcic vs berdych: kavcic @ 5.99
seppi vs souza: souza @ 4.65
dodig vs berrer: berrer @ 2.99

07/01/15-08/01/15 - ATP Brisbane & ATP Chennai

Two day's worth here, what I can do for now anyway.

ATP Brisbane:

Kukushkin vs Raonic: Kukushkin @ 4.50

ATP Chennai:

Goffin vs Berankis: Berankis @ 3.56
Ymer vs Muller: Ymer @ 3.97
Vesely vs Haider-Maurer: Haider-Maurer @ 2.99
Gojowczyk vs Bautista-Agut: Gojowczyk @ 3.74

06/01/2015-08/01/15 - ATP Brisbane & Hopman Cup Men

Just the one for Brisbane at the moment:

Klizan vs Dolgopolov: Klizan @ 2.80

07/01/15 - 08/01/15 - Hopman Cup Women

Just the one.

Lucie Safarova vs Serena Williams. Serena Williams @ 1.31

06/01/15 -07/01/2015 - WTA Auckland

Sorry for the confusion with the date's, it's how pinnacle does it presumably due to my timezone and either there's or in Australian/China. Once the Australian swing is over, I should be back to normal.

WTA Auckland:

Flipkens vs Vandeweghe.   Flipkens @ 2.67
Hradecka vs Goerges.   Hradecka @ 2.92
Erakovic vs Zahlavova-Strycova.   Erakovic @ 2.36

Analysing - Quick update

I have just quickly further analysed my men's betting results from last year.

I think I may need to tighten the filter on the men's picks, I noticed 'too many' matches are appearing on the Men's side, compared to the women's.

I will give it a bit of time before I make any hasty decisions, but I don't think it will hurt if I tighten the filter criteria slightly on the men's side, rather then making a bigger change.

Looking at my graph for when I apply a slightly sterner criteria, I get a smoother graph line.

To be honest, I don't think it will cause many major issues once I get further into the season, however a lot of my data from last year was based on the men's clay season, rather then hardcourts.

It's for this reason that make's me think I may be better off tightening the filter criteria just for now, until I have more data on the hardcourt surface for men. It may be better to air(sp?) on the side of caution. My model also seem's to skew towards a bigger emphasis on men underdog's compared to women underdogs.

You will probably notice this in the picks if you follow for long enough, the women's odd's will tend to be more around the even's area. The men's will be more based on higher odds, which in return should give me a lower strike-rate compared to the women's. This also mean's longer losing run's are more likely on the men's picks and bigger draw-downs.

The women's bet's seem to have gotten off to a great start, as I expected based on my hardcourt results I recorded from last year. Hopefully they can continue this trend, as they performed poorly on the clay last year, or, at least my model did!

Anyway, I'll keep you readers posted. Probably best I don't make too many hasty decisions at the moment, keep calm, let the result's come, then tweak if I feel it's really necessary.

For the time being, nothing to be worried about!

Monday, 5 January 2015

06/01/15 - WTA Picks

WTA Brisbane:

Brengle @ 2.10
Lucic-Baroni @ 3.18

WTA Shenzhen:

Buyukakcay @ 2.92
Krunic @ 1.76

06/01/15 - ATP Picks

Some picks, more to follow tomorrow evening:

ATP Brisbane:

Chardy @ 3.35

ATP Chennai:

Coric @ 3.56

05/01/2015 - ATP Chennai & Doha

Some more picks:

ATP Chennai:

Lacko @ 1.91
Prashanth @ 4.93

ATP Doha:

Basilivishi @ 3.62

05/01/15 - Hopman Cup Men

Pospisil @ 2.70

05/01/15 - ATP Brisbane

Kubot @ 3.78
Copil @ 2.83
Kudla @ 2.55

05/01/15 - Hopman Cup Women

Safarova @ 1.56

05/01/15 - WTA Brisbane

Today's picks:

Lepchenko @ 2.53

05/01/15 - WTA Auckland Picks

Tonight's picks:

WTA Auckland:

Vinci @ 1.80
Davis @ 3.69

Sunday, 4 January 2015

A few more picks..

A few more, last one's for today.

ATP Chennai:

Haider-Maurer @ 2.90

ATP Doha:

Mohamed Safwat @ 5.00
Andujar @ 4.31
Struff @ 3.22

Results so far and prices

It's been a bit hectic for me this week, first of all for doing the picks.

It's taken me a few days to get back into the swing of things, my timing has been a little out and the Australian swing is the one I hate the most as I find it difficult to find the best time to get the prices.

After today, I should become a bit more consistent with getting better prices and hopefully beating the pinnacle line more often.

Anyhow, here's a breakdown of my results so far. I have broken the results for the match odds down for all my bet's and the filtered bets (Filtered bet's are the one's that I put on the blog).

So far, a good start to the season, mainly from the women's side, Ebden had a chance today to get us a first men's win but couldn't serve out the match and collapsed after that.

I am recording other bet's as nothing last's forever and the filter's or trends may also change.

Experimental Under / Over:

These bet's are just an experiment, I'm finding it hard work to work through the match odds and the under/over's at the same time, which is why I am concentrating for the time being on the match odds.

I have also found some other nice patterns in matches with low priced favorite's and based on my filters, that could be used for in-play bet's in the future. I will be posting these on the blog, whenever the opportunity arises and recording them for this season. I have a good feeling they will be profitable, time will tell of course, however I have two or three different angles to potentially try out.

Results so far for under / over:

7 Bets completed - 2 wins and 5 losses -£324 

This is based on a flat staking of £100 stakes.

Match Odds (All bets) - All tournaments

21 Bets completed -  13 wins and 8 losses - +£1452.26 

This is based on kelly staking.

Non- kelly staking using £100 flat bets would have returned so far - +£ 913

Match Odds (Filtered Bets) - All tournaments

 14 Bets completed - 9 wins and 5 losses - +£1499.20

This is based on kelly staking

Non- kelly staking using £100 flat bets would have returned so far +£581

If you are wondering why there is such a disparity between flat stakes on the filtered bet's compared to the non filtered bet's profit, but the kelly staking profit's seem similar, it is likely to be as I had a big loser using kelly staking on the stosur game (over £800 loss for that one game using kelly). This one bet alone wiped out a siginificant chunk of my profit (She was leading something like 5-0 or 5-1 in the 3rd then collapsed and lost 7-5 I believe). I also had a bet on tomljanovic that did not meet the filtered bet criteria and helped return a nice profit on both level and kelly staking.

What really matter's for me, is the profit for the match odds filtered bet's, these are the one's I'm really interested in as these should make a decent return. If I can make a consistent profit for the next few month's, I will start to use real-money. For now, I'm happy to continue my paper exercise. Here's looking towards a green future!

Tonight and tomorrow, I will have a lot more bet's to update in the database. Here's hoping January turns out to be a profitable one after a good start. Timing to get the best prices available will be main focus now, as I feel I have been a little impatient (on the men's first match games), on getting a better price.



05/01/2015 - ATP Doha

Just the one for now, may be another one or two, will post a new post if there is.

 Gabashvilli @ 2.80

05/01/2015 - ATP Chennai

ATP Chennai:

Coric @ 2.15
Ymer @ 3.18
Devvarman @ 2.76
Gonzalez @ 2.55
Ramanathan @ 3.07

04/01/2014 - Hopman Cup Women

Just the one:

Watson @ 3.18

04/01/2015 05/01/2014 - ATP Brisbane

 Keep writing 2014 instead of 2015..I'll get out of the habit I'm sure.

I am concentrating on match odds at the moment now, due to the volume of games, it is taking me quite a lot of time to put them up.

ATP Brisbane:


Duckworth @ 4.62
Golubev @ 3.46


Berlocq @ 3.90
Melzer @ 2.62
Matosevic @ 1.86

Saturday, 3 January 2015

04/01/2015 - WTA Shenzhen

WTA Shenzhen:

Hercog @ 2.73
Knapp @ 1.45
Siniakova @ 1.94

04/01/2015 - WTA Auckland

WTA Auckland:

Wickmayer @ 1.98
Erakovic @ 1.64
Larsson @ 2.03
Vesnina @ 1.83
Bertens @ 2.21
Soler-Espinosa @ 3.18


Wickmayer vs Townsend - under 21.5 games @ 1.86
Puig vs Erakovic - under 21 games @ 1.96
Vesnina vs mladenovic - under 21.5 games @ 1.90

03/01/2014 - Hopman Cup

Hopman Cup Men & Women:

Adam Pavlasek @ 7.14
Ebden @ 4.40
Safarova @ 1.87

03/01/2014 - WTA Shenzen

WTA Shenzen:

Anna-Lena Friedsam @ 1.42
Zheng @ 2.16
Anna Schmiedlova @ 2.30


Friedsam vs Vikhlyantseva - Under 20.5 games @ 1.89
Babos vs Wang - Under 21.5 games @ 1.88
Dulgheru vs Zheng - Under 21.5 games @ 1.85
Bacsinszky vs Voegele - Under 20.5 games @ 1.94

04/01/2014 - WTA Brisbane

A few for the next batch of games for WTA Brisbane:

Jarmila Gajdosova @ 1.70
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni @ 2.00
Victoria Azarenka @ 1.51


Lucic-Baroni vs Christina McHale - Over 21.5 games @ 1.90
Muguruza vs Mattek-Sands Over 19.5 games @ 1.86

03/01/2014 - WTA Brisbane

Few for today:

Just the one for match odds

Kanepi @ 2.50

Overs/Unders coming

Pironkova vs Navarro - Over 19.5 games @ 1.89
Tomljanovic vs Jankovic - Over 19 games @ 1.81

03/01/2014 - ASB Auckland Qualifiers

Some picks for ASB Auckland Qualifiers.

I will be posting more picks up as I work my way through the lists.

Misa Eguchi @ 1.90
Hradecka @ 2.92
Laura Siegemund @ 2.36
Sesil Karatantcheva @ 2.11

Experimental Picks - Qualifiers, Challengers, ITF

I will be posting some experimental picks, when I feel the prices are good enough.

These will use the same filters that I use for the ATP/WTA player matches.

I will be recording all the matches I can, however I will just be posting the one's with the ATP/WTA filters for the time being.

These are experimental, so I would advise not following them until I can get an idea if it's worth carrying on with them or not, it's a lot harder to get a good price on these types of matches.

I will be focusing more on the betting side as currently my trading side is going quite bad to be honest and I think I'll have more success on the betting side.

I will be putting up a Excel spreadsheet at the end of the month, with all the bet's that have been posted on the blog, I use kelly staking and my paper testing bet's are based on a £10000 bank using 1/10th kelly.

The spreadsheet will get updated at the end of each month, as I need to take my results out of my database then put them into the spreadsheet.

There will be some picks up shortly, hopefully.

On a side note, Rafa is winning the 1st set. Would be nice if he can also get the job done still in under 22.5 games!

Mubadala - 03/01/15 - Picks

Just the one for today again for match odds.

Nadal @ 1.81

There is a chance his price will drift out, especially after the scoreline vs Murray yesterday. However price does seem good and my model agrees.

NOTE: The Unders/Overs are completely experimental, no idea how these will perform long-term.

Nadal vs Wawrinka - Under/Overs

Under 22.5 games @ 1.87

Friday, 2 January 2015

02/01/2015 - Mubadala Picks

 Just the one for today, got a bad price on Almagro yesterday, was too impatient.

Andy Murray @ 2.24