Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Trading - Unseen Angles

After looking at my results from my betting for a while now and exchanging comments with tennis-trader, it made me realise something that I was stupidly not realising and not taking advantage of earlier.

Given that I have found an edge with betting, why am I not using this edge for trading also?

I spoke already about maybe finding an automated solution for the new season. However from this week, but most probably starting from next week, I am going to use my own betting analysis to start trading on matches manually. As I don't have loads of free time except on my day off, I'll probably start to make the most of this day off trading on the markets.

It's clear to me now, that I can trade from information I get out of my betting system and should be able to make a good profit. I'll be starting off just with a very small £50 bank and look to use 4% for each trade which equates to £2.

I'll compound the bank as it grows and add additional money over the next few months. I'm very confident that just following a few simple rules, that this wil work and work well.


What I have been doing around 2 months back now, was looking at graphs off Betfair from matches, taking screenshots and looking at the prices in match. What I wasn't doing was thinking how I could apply my betting angle to in-play trading, which is actually very silly of me.

So looking at around 100 different results I recorded from my betting and matching graphs I screenshotted from Betfair, I have been able to guestimate some results by using back and lay calculators to work out profit & loss in certain situations. Of course this is just testing, but the figures are very positive, so I really need to push on forward with this now, so I can look to get real trades in for the rest of the season, looking to really push on for 2016.

I've always enjoyed trying to make money from small amounts, however if it proves as profitable as I think it will be using real-money (obviously I need to see how scaleable it could be, money availabke etc), I will be adding a lot more money into my account as long as my results are consistent. I've been up and down too much in trading in the past that I am still taking a cautious approach.

Saturday, 25 July 2015

Blogabet - Week two results

Hi all,

I have now nearly finished my second week on blogabet. Just two more tips to finish today and then however many I have tomorrow for the finals.

So far these are my results:

116 verified tips completed, +57 units of profit with a yield of +25%

You can view my blogabet page here: http://tennisalchemist.blogabet.com/


A bit of a horrid day yesterday, but expected as I was on a bit of a heater (upswing) at the middle of this week, majority of my favourites won yesterday though which helped out.

As I write this, J.Sousa one of my tips has converted 0/8 breakpoints in the first set against Bautista-Agut, then get's broken to lose the first set, nice..not! :)

So far so good, another busy week next week again with another 5 tournaments next week, the WTA now moves onto the Hard/I.Hard season so it will be interesting to see how we get on, going from my results of the past, the hard courts have provided a good profit on the WTA.

Fail of the week has to be Bondarenko against Tsurenko, I had the feeling that whoever lost the first tie-breaker had a good chance to lose the match.

I have attached a picture below for amusement:





Hopefully another good week next week.

A thankyou to everyone who is following me so far on blogabet and I look to continue making a good profit over the next months until the end of the season for my subscribers.


 

Sunday, 19 July 2015

Blogabet - First week of results

So I've pretty much just 'completed' my first week of tips on blogabet.

I have one tip still to be resolved - Ram vs Karlovic, which will be completed later on this evening, that will take me up to exactly 50 tips posted for my first week, which was a number I thought I may hit about two days ago, coincidence that I hit that exact number though!

So far, I have produced 49 VERIFIED tips for a profit of +22 units and a yield of +23%.

These stats were attained by flat betting 2 units at a time, on every game (tip).

Not a bad start indeed, athough it could of been a lot worse, I'm hoping I get off to a good start over my first 200 tips and I already have, although I'm well aware I'm only 50 tips in and a lot can change over the next month. I have faith in my results and I have already logged over a 1000 bets now I believe into my spreadsheet.

It's just a shame for my results that I log based on kelly staking, that the games I staked a lot more on, basically all lost, damn you variance!

The ATP event in Newport though, has been good for my results, again I will know more once I analyse my results later on this evening.

A busy week next week for me with 5 Events covering the ATP and WTA tours on hard and clay surfaces, with the amount of tournament's on, I have a feeling I may break the 100 tips barrier by the end of next week, however it must be said the tournaments have more higher quality players than the one's this week, so we will see what results come.

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Now tipping on blogabet!

I have now started tipping on blogabet, as my tips can be verified with the prices I am submitting and also it records the tips and my progress for people who are interested.#

You can find my page here: http://tennisalchemist.blogabet.com/

I will ofcourse post my progress here on my blog and also any boxing tips will be free for the time being. Anyone who is interested with my tennis tips or just my general progress, feel free to check my page out.

In other news, I was hoping Federer would win the Wimbledon final, it would of been nice if he could of picked up a 18th grand-slam, considering his current age. However it wasn't to be, if he had gone up 2-0 in sets it could of been a different story, however Djokovic isn't the world number 1 for nothing! So congratualations to him!

That's about it for this post, hopefully I will be able to talk more about trading in the coming months, at the moment tipping is taking up a lot of my time, hopefully I may be able to automate a bit of the process to speed up producing the tips, it is quite a lot of work at the moment, as I'm also starting to record results for Challenger events, so it's double the workload, I'm also going to be looking at Set handicaps also - as long as it isn't too time consuming. So a lot of work for the next few months!

Sunday, 12 July 2015

My tennis tips

After reading several reviews I have decided not to use verifiedtipsters for posting my tips too. I have read too many reviews about it being a scam ring.

Instead I will be posting my tips to blogabet, I will have more details once I get used to there service. So far I have found it quite overwhelming (there is a lot of options on it), but should be posting my first tips on there either tomorrow morning or Tuesday.

Flanagan won his first world title last night, should realistically of been called a no contest, however he was classed as the winner. Zepeda's shoulder popped out by the looks of things, a freak accident, but a win for my records none the less.

Saturday, 11 July 2015

Terry Flanagan vs Jose Zepeda

Tonight, Terry Flanagan will look to become the UK's newest world champion.

I watch a LOT of boxing, however I have to be honest and say I don't know too much about Jose Zepeda.

I've been taking a look at the odds for a while for this fight, as I follow boxing forums daily (you can learn a lot of information on them and also, how badly people are at letting their dislike of a fighter sour there judgement (badly) ).

There are a few important factors in this fight for me so I will break them down.

Terry Flanagan:

Fighting at 'home'.
Has done 10 round fights several times, tonight's fight will be a 12 rounder, but he has a very good engine and sets a terrific pace.
Decent defense
Can be hit and miss at times, some lulls at times but overall a decent fighter.

UK refs are VERY quick to step in at times, especially if the away fighter is struggling or gets knocked down, I have seen a lot of 'British Stoppages' in the last few months, you always have to factor this in with fights.


Jose Zepeda:

Has a high KO % with 20 of his 23 wins coming from KO.
Looks to be relatively decent from a technical aspect - not amazing, but not aweful.

That's about as much as I can tell from Zepeda as I haven't seen much of him.


What I do know is, Flanagan is fighting at home, in Manchester, has done 10 rounds several times and has a high work-rate.

With Zepeda I only (kind-of) know, that he can knock people out, however having looked at his record, he hasn't fought anyone of note except Cayo, not to say Flanagan's record is amazing, because he hasn't fought anyone at world level either, however he has three good domestic/euro level wins, a win over Troy James, Martin Gethin and Stephen Ormand (Who is better than is given credit for, I would say he is Euro level).

Some important factors are that Zepeda has NEVER fought at Lightweight before - the limit being 135lbs, I have looked on boxrec and he has been anywhere from 137.5lbs up to 146, usually fighting around 140-142lbs.

Zepeda has also never fought in Europe.

Usually, when a fighter comes down in weight it can have a negative impact on his strength, power, and more importantly stamina. Stamina seems to be the one that affects them the most as they become weight-drained.

The fact he has never fought at 135lbs before for me, raises question marks, from the footage I have seen he certainly hasn't looked 'flabby' or not in condition at a higher weight, so it makes me wonder  there must be a reason why he hasn't campaigned at lightweight before (The fact he is fighting for the Lightweight title without ever fighting at the weight is laughable and shows the state of the governing bodies).

Flanagan's price has been drifiting, zepeda shortening.

My pick is Flanagan to win outright, home-advantage and I believe he has fought the better calibre of opponents, he may have to weather a few hairy moments but I know boxing well enough, that weight is usually a major factor. I can't look past the fact Zepeda has never campaigned at Lightweight in his pro career - there must be reasons WHY, he also has never gone past 8 rounds at a higher weight, never mind a lower weight.

Throwing powershots should tire him out, ofcourse he could make the weight fine and prove me completely wrong in the ring - completely blowing Flanagan away, however as said above, I have to question why he has never fought at LW before, I can only put it down that he struggles to make the limit or not prepared to put the effort in, it's usually the former.

I should also note, that KO's at higher-level boxing (between two equally skilled opponents), do not happen all that often, which is why I love betting on boxing as I think the odds are usually not set well a lot of the time.

I don't really have any concerns for Flanagan, I think he has a decent chin, nothing has really shown me otherwise so far in any of his fights - otherwise I would put a bet out for this. However I do have many concerns for Zepeda, the value looks to be on Flanagan in my opinion.

Flanagan for me is the value bet for this fight.

So my pick: Terry Flanagan to win outright (Match winner)

You can get Flanagan currently @ 1.93 on Betfair, or at 1.83 on pinnaclesports.

6 month hiatus - Back to blogging & tipping

I have decided to start to update my blog again, I will be posting my foray's into betting, trading and also poker which I will be starting to play again next month.

The most important update is that I will be starting to post tips on www.verifiedtipsters.com hopefully starting from next week when the next tournaments start after Wimbledon.

I am paying to use their service and it also means I can be transparent with the tips I provide. I'm confident that I will be able to provide profitable tips on both the ATP & WTA tour events until the end of the year. I am however, struggling to make profit on grandslam events, that's something I need to look into, I also need more data for grand slam events so I will only be providing tips on the main tour events, no davis cup, fed cup etc for the time being.

I'll be looking into doing tips for challenger tour events next year, if I feel like I can provide profitable tips for this, I will be recording results for the challenger tour up until the end of the year.

I will be doing this until the end of the season, whilst keeping my blog clear for updates on how I'm getting on and anything else I come across of interest.

I will post a link to my verifiedtipster profile once it is set up, hopefully this will be done by tomorrow (Sunday).