Saturday, 25 July 2015

Blogabet - Week two results

Hi all,

I have now nearly finished my second week on blogabet. Just two more tips to finish today and then however many I have tomorrow for the finals.

So far these are my results:

116 verified tips completed, +57 units of profit with a yield of +25%

You can view my blogabet page here:

A bit of a horrid day yesterday, but expected as I was on a bit of a heater (upswing) at the middle of this week, majority of my favourites won yesterday though which helped out.

As I write this, J.Sousa one of my tips has converted 0/8 breakpoints in the first set against Bautista-Agut, then get's broken to lose the first set, nice..not! :)

So far so good, another busy week next week again with another 5 tournaments next week, the WTA now moves onto the Hard/I.Hard season so it will be interesting to see how we get on, going from my results of the past, the hard courts have provided a good profit on the WTA.

Fail of the week has to be Bondarenko against Tsurenko, I had the feeling that whoever lost the first tie-breaker had a good chance to lose the match.

I have attached a picture below for amusement:

Hopefully another good week next week.

A thankyou to everyone who is following me so far on blogabet and I look to continue making a good profit over the next months until the end of the season for my subscribers.



  1. Impressive start, congratulations! Sousa just won, so your P+L looks even better. 116 picks, around 400 to go and you can start to trust your system. At the moment it's still too early to judge the strategy. On the other hand I guess, that you did a lot of backtesting right?

    Do you only make straight betting or also trading? I think is possible to make profit with your approach, but trading seem easier for me. On the other hand you don't green too early, that's a common mistake a lot of traders do.

    It seems that you are one or two steps ahead of me. Things are improving on my side, but it's still not fluent and the doubts are not gone yet. Next one or two months are really important for my development. There are two possibilities... breakthrough or I stop with the the trading. It's time consuming and if you can't make good money, it's better to enjoy other stuff as watching in a computer or TV screen.

    Keep greening!

  2. Yep I did back testing over 1000 matches recorded, so I'm confident in my results.

    The guy who made my trading database, I will ask him about maybe developing some automated software for trading.

    I think I can find an edge in trading using similar methods to how I do with my betting. It's something I need to look into, probably once I settle down a bit more with my tips, as that already takes up some time to do.

    1. Over 1000 matches are a sufficient sample size, so you can look positive in the future.

      I took a look of your last weeks bets. Manually I often saw value at the same matches. It shows that the underdog often is the better option, especially at smaller tournaments. I guess that tennis is the sports with the most "surprise wins".

      Trading needs more time than straight betting. If you consider the opportunity costs, your approach can even be more lucrative. If you can keep these values (yield: 25% and 25 units every week) you can go fulltime without any problems.

      Right now I have a similar yield, but I can't reach a volume of over 50 trades in a week. That's the point, which was mentioned at the comments. You need scalibility (liquidity for high stakes) and repeatability (amount of trades).

      Are you planning to go fulltime? Trading is my passion (and I would love to do it fulltime... one big advantage is the personal liberty; for example I have to start my new job at 7.15 am), but the pressure has to be immense if is your single source of income without insurance, pension fund and so on.

      In my opinion you can go fulltime, when you can make - without many problems - more money as employed. In Switzerland the costs and wages are high, so it's more difficult than in other countries. The other option is financial liberty, you are so rich, that you don't need this income. I hope for the second option, at least one day. Unfortunately I didn't save that much in the last years...

  3. I have no plans to go full-time, not yet anyway. I'll be honest, even if I wanted too, I can't afford to at the moment - I simply don't have anywhere near the capital to do it. However I don't really want to be working until I'm 67 either (current retirment age in the UK), currently I'm 29, 30 this year!

    My goal for next year is to build my current betting bankroll up to a sizeable sum. I'd like to have at least 50k as a betting bank, 50k in reserve also before I even considered going fulltime. I also want another year or two experience at the least with betting - that's the very minimum. I also have a house to buy first as well with my partner!

    As you can see, I have no intention of diving in, I have a good idea of the kinds of money and experience I need before I could quit my job.

    I see my future more in betting than trading now, although like I said in my previous reply, I will look to automation for tennis trading (it'll happen next year not this year, if it happens). I'm also certain I can apply how my betting works to the trading ladders.

    If I do go fulltime in the future, it'll definitely be betting investing. I know your not a fan of it, but if I can diversify my betting, following different sports as well as my own tennis bets, doing it fulltime also, there is the potential to make a good fulltime income.

    At the moment I'm far away from being able to stop my 'real' job, however as I said before I don't have any aspiration to be working in a 'normal' job in the future. For me, finding a way to earn money by betting/trading means is my way out of a normal job.

    I'm hoping by this time next year, I am at the point where I am making considerably more then what I earn per month in my current job.

    I'm in a good place at the moment, it kind of reminds me of the beginning of my Poker journey, I know what im doing is's now just a case of building my bankroll up :)

    I know what you mean also about personal liberty. At the moment I have to now get up anywhere between 5:30am - 6:00am. In the evening I am doing the work with my database and spreadsheets updating them and the work for the bets in the morning. Then I have my full-time job it's a lot of work, but I'm determined to make it pay off over the next 5 years.

    1. Thanks for your reply. Yes, you are right about going fulltime. I see the moment to trade fulltime, when you can make consistent the monthly income like as an employee. Don't forget that you have as an employee paid holidays, national holidays, pension fund, insurance and so on.

      Like mentioned it's almost impossible for me... I am 40 years old now and earn even more than most Swiss people (I would say that I am in the top 5%... median salary in Switzerland for my age is around 6'000 Euro a month). I can remember the discussion with Sultan about my profit expectations. I told him the same, I want to make one day the income that I have now. He answered me something like this: "With this salary you should keep your current job".

      On the other hand (sports) trading is my passion. When I have one day the financial liberty, I would do it. I would be okay with 5'000 Euro a month, even it would be just a part of my current wage. Financial liberty is relative. I would say that you need in Switzerland at least 1-2 Mio. Euro to speak about it (even better 3-4 Mio. Euro... actually it depends on your age). So you can do some (save) side income with financial instruments and cover your monthly costs. Dreaming is allowed...

      Let's see, where we are in one year. It will be interesting to see our development. If I can succeed as a part time trader, I can build much quicker the bank I need for the mentioned financial liberty. Every cent I earn with trading is a saving. I don't pay taxes (on my trading profit) and I don't need this money for any expenses. Unfortunately it takes years to reach a seven digits bank. Especially when you didn't save much in young years and you can't compound as much at would be possible...

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