Monday, 31 August 2015

Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves!

Whilst I have a quiet period at home due to my close family being away at my Grandad's bedside,  I started to do some trading again (Yesterday).

I love the quiet periods, I find it really easy to trade when it's quiet. The biggest issue for me is not having the peace & quiet enough to trade effectively, enough of the time. Betting for me is much simpler as I just place my bets and go do something else.

Anyway, since I have started out using a small amount I have had a very good day yesterday and today so far with trading, even with trades going against me I have managed to cut my losses straight away and for the most part let me green's run.

Just over these two days I have seen my trading account/profit grow, even though I am only using small stakes. I was having a chat with one of the guys at work, as we were talking about saving/investing and how people seem to 'throw' money away, when he came out with the title of this post:

"Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves"

 

Which brings me onto this, I have noticed with this peace and quiet I currently have, when I do cut my losses at the right moments and don't get greedy, that I am looking after the pennies and the pounds seem to be growing - looking after themselves. It may sound daft, but it's so true - for me anyway.

I know all to well how easy it is to go "Oh, it's only 50p I'm losing so it doesn't matter" or when you just say to yourself I can make that back easily. However when you take that mentality, 50p here or there soon eats into the profit you could of made, not only does it slow progress, it also encourages bad habits. 

It's much easier for me, when I think of 50p, or whatever the amount of my trading bank, as a %, so I instead try to look at the fact I am saving 1% for example, of my trading bank, or I have made 1%, or whatever the % is. 

If you can't be disciplined with small amounts with trading, what kind of attitude will one have when they start to use bigger amounts?

 I guess it's all to do with the psychology of trading.

Andy Lee vs Billy Joe Saunders

Finally I have some time to get around to writing this!

I will say straight away that this will not be a long post on this fight.

When the odds first came out on this fight, I expected Andy Lee to be around the 1.50 mark. Before Andy Lee had his win against Korobov my thought was that if this fight got made, I would take on BJS if he was around the 3.00 odds mark, as I thought this would be quite good value against Lee who had been struggling with boxer/movers. However since I have watched Lee's last 3-4 fights I have to change my stance, not just based on what I have watched but the odds as well of this upcoming fight.

Lee has been in with MUCH better fighters than BJS, although he has been outboxed for periods in his last fights (long periods at that), he always remains competitive. The issue for me is that BJS has not been in with anyone as good as Lee. He has only been in with Chris Eubanks Jnr - or CEJ as he is known as for short. CEJ is a fighter I don't particuarly rate that highly and BJS only narrowly won that fight after slowing down the stretch.

We then come onto one of BJS's weaknesses - stamina. Whilst Lee isn't a pressure fighter, I'm pretty confident if this goes past 6 rounds he will start to walk BJS down, BJS doesn't carry the kind of power to discourage a fighter later on in a fight and Lee has been in with much harder punchers than BJS.

If CEJ can bully you for pretty much 6 of the last 12 rounds, your going to have trouble against an experienced and extremely hard punching fighter in the way of Lee.

As long as Lee doesn't get sloppy earlier on and take careless shot's from BJS, who has very fast handspeed and combinations, he should be able to take it to the later rounds and start to apply pressure to BJS and I think he will wear him down to win. I'm not sure on the outcome, however I just think Lee will win the majority of the later rounds as long as he walks him down.

If you look at BJS, he struggled with Nick Blackwell later on in their fight (when Blackwell was not as good as he is now), he won a very close decision against CEJ, and also a razor close decision vs John Ryder who doesn't have the best stamina either in my opinion. Blackwell is someone who knocked Ryder out 2 fights ago I should add.

At the moment John Ryder is British/European level, Blackwell is solid European and CEJ..well he get's overhyped but again is probably around solid European. None of these fighters have fought close to world level opposition unlike Lee, even if they have the ability to go on and be world class fighters.

You can currently get Lee at a best price of 1.99 at Marathon Bet (Lee is world champion by the way!).

After that your looking at 1.91 with a few different bookies.

The fact Lee is nearly even's against BJS is in my opinion criminal. I should note that BJS started out around 1.80 vs CEJ and before the event was around 2.20 on Betfair - a lot of people backing CEJ based on his dad's name and hype around him.

Has CEJ proven to be nearly anywhere as good as Lee? Simple answer - No.

Which is why I find the current pricing ridiculous, not going to complain though, I'll be taking Lee on at anything over 1.80 for the winner's market.

Friday, 28 August 2015

Blogabet weeks 5,6 & 7 update!

So first of all, it's been far too long since my last post.

Week 5 ended with my overall results at +49 units of profit with a 8% yield.

Week 6 ended at +53 units and a 9% yield (overall).

Week 7 hasn't finished for me until after tonight however I dropped down to 41 units at the start of the week, which I felt like crying! 

However I stuck to my guns about variance rearing it's very ugly head. So far I'm at +66 units of profit overall which is a huge recovery for this month but still not a profitable month. After tonight I will be at least +60 units up since I started on blogabet worse case scenario if no tips come in. So far I am only -6 for this month.

I had a few people decide not to subscribe to my service after the first month, presumably because they only made 1-2% yield. Most people did join when I had between 60-70 units of profit, which for them and me, was right before I had a downswing.

I'm hoping that September will prove to be a good solid month and I reach a new peak of profit.

I'm well over 300 tips now, hopefully by the end of the year I am well over the 500 tips mark and I will have at least 4 months worth of results. 

I'm now going to take 2 weeks break from the service for the US Open, as I don't have enough data on 5 set matches or grand slam events overall.

My next post is on Monday and I'll be giving a write up about the upcoming boxing matches along with my selections, I'll be posting these on blogabet also as free tips. I've promised to do Lee vs Saunders before and I will get it done on Monday!

Unfortunately I have to also prepare for a death in the family, as we've been told my grandad most likely won't survive for much longer, so after Monday I will be quiet posting again until after the US Open. I'll need the time to spend time with my family.

On a final note Unknown who runs the football blog on the right hand side of my blog list has written an interesting article, regarding statistics and more. Definitely worth a read and one I will be posting on when I get time!

Monday, 10 August 2015

Blogabet - Week 4 Results - New boxing post this week

Hi all,

A day later then I wanted to post, I have now completed my 4th week on Blogabet posting verified tips and what a brutal one, the variance currently shows no signs of letting up!

Let's start off with the numbers first of all. Well over 200 picks now, with an overall profit of +58 units of profit and a +13% yield overall.

That's a loss of over -11 units from last week.

I could write the number of times a player has gone a set and break up...lost, serving for the match...lost, have set points...lost, have match points (Yes you Steve Johnson!)...lost.

The latest victim (rather im the victim!), Pablo Cuevas serving for the match at 5-4 up in the 3rd, yep you guessed it, lost!

I think the biggest low odds buster has to be J.Melzer losing the first set last week after leading Almagro 5-1.

The worse defeat was diatchenko winning the first set and then not winning a game in either of the last two sets.

I said on my blogabet page I was past caring about the defeats/beats, I guess not as I'm not writing about them here. The variance has been brutal, really really brutal, I've come to expect it though as I have easily gone through 100-200 bet losing periods, it's just the manner at the minute is well..brutal!

The worse thing is I have paying customers and unfortunately most of them joined either just before, or just as this negative variance started to kick in.

Rant over! My next post will be about the boxing, sometime in the next day or two, I'll have a write up of the Andy Lee vs Billy Joe Saunders fight also in that one, as well as the upcoming heavyweight fight between W.Klitschko and Tyson Fury.

Sunday, 2 August 2015

Blogabet - Week 3 results

So I've now finished my 3rd week of posting tips on blogabet.

Another profitable week although it has been very up and down, the ATP tips are proving to be a bit more volatile than the WTA though recently, down to +22 units of profit on the ATP from a high of around +31, whilst the WTA tour sits at +47 units.

So far after 178 verified tips I have made +69.6 units of profit and a yield of +20%

As expected my yield is decreasing as the number of tips recorded increases, I'm still looking for a good long-term yield however, I think anything around 7-10% would be very good. Once I reach the 500 tips mark, I'll have a better idea of the longterm figure.

Another busy week next week with 4 tournament's, it's a little harder for me as the tournament's are in America all except the austrian clay event for the men's tour.

It make's it slightly harder for me, as I like to post my tips in the morning, with the American event's a lot of the matches are played 7pm uk time onwards, however I like to try when possible to give atleast an hour's notice for matches. It means I'll have to post some tips in the morning and the rest when I get back from work this week. If I post them all in the morning, it's likely we'll get worse prices before some matches.

Results so far below / my stats:

 

On a side-note I added a 7 day subscription option for my tips on blogabet, I think I'll probably just revert to the 30 day option but I'll leave the 7 day option available for a small amount of time.

That's about it for now, I'll be back again next week for another small update.

I'm going to look to post some boxing tips as well in the future, with a write-up on the blog, I love boxing and it's clear to myself that I can choose profitable bets.