Monday, 31 August 2015

Andy Lee vs Billy Joe Saunders

Finally I have some time to get around to writing this!

I will say straight away that this will not be a long post on this fight.

When the odds first came out on this fight, I expected Andy Lee to be around the 1.50 mark. Before Andy Lee had his win against Korobov my thought was that if this fight got made, I would take on BJS if he was around the 3.00 odds mark, as I thought this would be quite good value against Lee who had been struggling with boxer/movers. However since I have watched Lee's last 3-4 fights I have to change my stance, not just based on what I have watched but the odds as well of this upcoming fight.

Lee has been in with MUCH better fighters than BJS, although he has been outboxed for periods in his last fights (long periods at that), he always remains competitive. The issue for me is that BJS has not been in with anyone as good as Lee. He has only been in with Chris Eubanks Jnr - or CEJ as he is known as for short. CEJ is a fighter I don't particuarly rate that highly and BJS only narrowly won that fight after slowing down the stretch.

We then come onto one of BJS's weaknesses - stamina. Whilst Lee isn't a pressure fighter, I'm pretty confident if this goes past 6 rounds he will start to walk BJS down, BJS doesn't carry the kind of power to discourage a fighter later on in a fight and Lee has been in with much harder punchers than BJS.

If CEJ can bully you for pretty much 6 of the last 12 rounds, your going to have trouble against an experienced and extremely hard punching fighter in the way of Lee.

As long as Lee doesn't get sloppy earlier on and take careless shot's from BJS, who has very fast handspeed and combinations, he should be able to take it to the later rounds and start to apply pressure to BJS and I think he will wear him down to win. I'm not sure on the outcome, however I just think Lee will win the majority of the later rounds as long as he walks him down.

If you look at BJS, he struggled with Nick Blackwell later on in their fight (when Blackwell was not as good as he is now), he won a very close decision against CEJ, and also a razor close decision vs John Ryder who doesn't have the best stamina either in my opinion. Blackwell is someone who knocked Ryder out 2 fights ago I should add.

At the moment John Ryder is British/European level, Blackwell is solid European and CEJ..well he get's overhyped but again is probably around solid European. None of these fighters have fought close to world level opposition unlike Lee, even if they have the ability to go on and be world class fighters.

You can currently get Lee at a best price of 1.99 at Marathon Bet (Lee is world champion by the way!).

After that your looking at 1.91 with a few different bookies.

The fact Lee is nearly even's against BJS is in my opinion criminal. I should note that BJS started out around 1.80 vs CEJ and before the event was around 2.20 on Betfair - a lot of people backing CEJ based on his dad's name and hype around him.

Has CEJ proven to be nearly anywhere as good as Lee? Simple answer - No.

Which is why I find the current pricing ridiculous, not going to complain though, I'll be taking Lee on at anything over 1.80 for the winner's market.

1 comment:

  1. I don't know nothing about boxing, but referring to our discussion, this is the perfect example of a write-up I respect and it is not easy to find when it comes to football.

    You might be right or wrong, but what you're writing is an original interpretation, based on your boxing knowledge, that adds value to a discussion about this boxing match. The amount of information available makes people lazy, the data is not crucial by itself, what one does with it, is.