Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Value - When should you take it?

Value - When should you take it?

Majority of people will of heard the term 'value' when it comes to betting, or trading, or Poker for that matter.

What I used to debate in the past with a few people was, when should you take Value?

Some people said, only when the edge is big enough in your favour. Well, what constitutes to 'big enough' and why only when it's 'big enough?'

I used to think similarly along these lines when I was still quite new to learning HUSNG's, however once I started to talk to better players, there answer was, if there is value - take it.

Some people disagree with this, however if your not taking value, regardless of small it is, your essentially losing opportunities to make money in the long-term.

I have seen many a player and bettor in the past, who would miss opportunities by saying the value is too thin. I've often questioned that, because if you believe there is value, you should be seizing the opportunity, regardless if your perceived edge is 1% or 10%.

The real issue in my opinion, is being aware of how bad the variance can be. The smaller the edge, the 'harder' the variance.

I think this is why some people are put off by taking spots where value is perceived to be smaller then in other situations, as they either can't quantify how often they will be successful, or can't deal with the losing runs.

If they can't quantify how often they are successful, it can often be down to not recording results (betting/trading), or not having a big enough sample size.

Two interesting links below, one is a short article on variance and the other is a variance calculator, which can give you an idea of how different samples can vary depending on the inputs.

Variance in Sports Betting

Variance Simulator

I try to emphasise on my blogabet page, that people have to expect losing periods. Basically you could easily have two tipsters whose models or knowledge would produce, hypothetically having an edge that equates to 5% ROI in the long run, both who start at the same time, but over the same X amount of bet's, could have drastically different results.

I know this may be simple knowledge to more experience bettors, but I think it's an area of knowledge that a lot of bettors or players are not aware of.

Saturday, 21 November 2015

End of season - Rest period.

A month since my last post, which is far far too long. Contributing factors were that I had been training hard for my boxing event.

Blogabet results first, a difficult end to the season, wasn't able to make much of an impact at the end of this season, variance taking control of things it seemed.

My current stats stand at 599 verified picks, +95 units of profit and +8% yield. It's now the end of the season for me and I will be providing picks again at the beginning of the new season, which starts slightly later for 2016 at the beginning of January.

In the mean-time I have downloaded a very nice spreadsheet, that I believe Steve from uses.

My concentration now for the new season will be updating my own personal spreadsheet, that I use for recording my picks and then also getting this new spreadsheet set up to log all of my bet's that I am following from other tipsters.

I 've decided to move away from trading purely into betting, it's less time intensive for me and I can place the bet's and go and do whatever I want for the day. For me it is much less stressful, however it still requires a lot of work to make sure I am following the right tipsters and logging all the bet's I place.

Onto the boxing, I won my fight last Saturday, a points win and a hard fought fight. Still waiting for the rest of the money from people who sponsored me, however I have raised so far over £250 and the final total should be around just shy of £400 for cancer research UK.

I don't know when my next post will be, as I don't have much to say at the moment that will be of interest reading. I'm going to start giving a breakdown of the bet's I place each week in the new year, however my priority first of all will be getting used to inputting during the week when I work.