Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Blogabet update and overall results update (Non-blogabet)

Whilst I have a bit of spare time this evening, it made sense to do an update as I did not get chance to this weekend.

First of all, I have been incredibly busy this week, I have made some big change to my spreadsheet where I record all of my results. I finally managed to scrap all of the tabs/worksheets that I had for each tour and surface (there were over 15 of them..).

I now have one worksheet and I can now filter all of my results by tour, surface, event etc.

I still have some more implementation to add to the spreadsheet and it still isn't where I want it to be. For storing and reviewing my results, it is now streamlined and that's the most important thing for me at this point in time. I still have the ability to filter my results, including by odds and also in combination with odds that the model gives, as well as the above filters. That alone is now brilliant that I can do all of this from one worksheet.

Why is this brilliant? I can now enter all of my data so much quicker, no swapping between worksheets anymore. I can also now combine tours together or surfaces for different tours, multiple combinations to look at.

The only issue I'm having is getting the graph to stay in a certain place on my spreadsheet. Whenever I filter, it automatically updates my graph with the filters I have applied.

The boring stuff out of the way, here's some example's before I go onto my blogabet results.



2014/2015

ATP + WTA Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)





ATP Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)



WTA Overall (All surfaces, events, odds etc)






WTA Clay Surface Only (No filters, except Clay Surface)






As you can see, it's not plain sailing.


Which brings me onto blogabet.

My blogabet result's for this month have been disappointing, no two ways about it.

I am currently on +59 Units of profit for a +4% Yield, I'm currently down -36 units for this month.

Not a great start as you can see, however I am still positive for the year ahead. I must state that my overall results differ to my blogabet results, as for my blogabet picks I do apply two certain filters. 

Whilst I'm on the subject of blogabet, I'm a little bit disappointed in how the payment system works. Not only do users get a free month if they don't make profit (fair enough, I understand why sites or people do that), it's the fact that blogabet take a 'cut' of your earnings for that month. Also fair enough, right?

What isn't fair is when you have to give out refunds if a subscriber asks for one, that refund doesn't come back out of the cut blogabet takes. I'll give an example to simplify it.

Let's say I have two subscribers at 25euro's each as let's say thats my fee. That gives me 50euros in revenue for that month, however if later on they ask for a refund after having a negative month, blogabet refund them the money but they still take the 30% cut for that revenue range (the cut get's smaller as your monthly revenue increases).

My point is, not only would I be losing 30% to blogabet in the above example, that's before the refund, so effectively you'll be losing money. There's then a refund fee you have to pay also on top of that.

The cut should only be based on revenue you actually keep after refunds in my opinion. It's kind of leaving a sour taste in my mouth at the minute and I'm seriously contemplating leaving blogabet at some point in the near future and just posting my daily picks (ALL of them, no filters), into a Excel spreadsheet that anyone (limited to a certain number of people) can access once I have placed my bets. This would be free.

If I do decide to go this route, then I will update the sheet two times a day ideally, with new picks. I would keep the standardised timings I use at the minute.

The one thing I really enjoy about blogabet is that your picks get verified, if I move off the site, there's no way to verify the odds I record at, I guess I would just need to leave it down to users to see if they can get on at the odds that I publish still.

Anyway, that's enough from me for now, in my next post I'll find something else to talk about. I'll next give an update on my overall results in my spreadsheet in a month or two's time.

I'm also now recording Challenger Events, ATP & WTA Qualifiers and will be looking at Women's ITF tournaments time permitting. Streamlining the spreadsheet has allowed me to record so much more, much quicker. 

Thursday, 7 January 2016

Mental stability

I thought now would be a good time to create a new post.

The start of this season has been brutal so far, or has it?

I'm currently down -30units (2 units used on every bet I've ever posted on blogabet), for this month so far.

This has basically wiped out my profit for the ATP bets from last year. The variance has been horrible, just yesterday I noticed every single favourite won, so from 14/14. I put odds in based off pinnacle in an accumulator calculator as I was interested in seeing what the odds of this happening would of been offered, the odds of that happening came to just under 43.00

With myself trying to console myself a bit, I relooked over my results for some kind of comfort. Now that I am gathering an ever expanding sample size, the bad results don't look so bad in comparison.

I currently filter my results for my blogabet picks, I could post a lot more but the variance would be even bigger and for now I'm happy filtering them for the site.

So the first thing I have done is put my current average odds, current winrate and another variable into the variance simulator to once again see how bad a bad run can be. It is very possible for me to run breakeven or even losing over a 1000 bets, I tried over 5000 bet sample size and it came out profitable everytime (atleast over the amount of simulations I ran anyway!). However it made me realise (more then I paid attention to beforehand), just how long a period I could actually run bad for.

Secondly, now I have a much bigger sample size of results in my overall results database/spreadsheet since 2014 (not including 2013s results), I decided to take a look at the results again.

Based on a £10k bank with a £100 betsize, on the WTA with no filters applied, I would of hit a huge -£3700 loss before I even made a dime, just to note, I don't have a 10k bank for the WTA! Although that's my goal for each tour once I finally get my house this year.

It now currently stands at £4000 profit and it's currently at it's highest peak. It took over 400 bets before it even hit breakeven.

If I had started a few hundred bets ago, it would of seemed like I was just coining money in for fun as there has been a huge upswing, which is why I love the variance simulator. It bring's your expectations back into line, depending what point in time you start off at, can vastly change how much you make or lose. However as the sample size get's bigger, you form a clearer picture of just how successful or unsuccessful your bets are.

The ATP overall results, again with no filters, same bet size as above, I started off in profit virtually from the start, I hit a small -£500 loss, but within 70 bets I was in profit.

It has hit a peak of just over £5000 profit and currently sits at £2700 profit. However if I had started at the peak recording the results, it would seem like the model does horrible as I would of been down -£3000.

This year I will record well over 1500 bet's without any filters. I am also streamlining my spreadsheet with the help of a online friend, this will hopefully happen very soon (by the end of this week if a solution is implemented). This will allow me to input data about 3-5x quicker, I'll be recording Challengers and most likely ITF events from next week.

This will give me an even bigger sample size to work with from the model, I'm hoping by the end of the year I will have recorded well over 3000 bets from ATP/WTA (Including Qualifiers) and also Challenger tours. The sample size will be even bigger if I combine ITF also.

If the spreadsheet streamlining works, I will be able to filter all my results off one page of data with different variables, which will save me so so much time! At the minute I have to keep different tours and surfaces in different worksheets, which is a lot of work to maintain.

The next step after that, will be finding a way to automate the results and odds capturing from games, in a manner that works for me.

If there's one thing I need to make sure I'm doing at the start of the season. Then it's just not looking at the results as the matches are played! Bad habit I have got back into for the start of the season, rather then just checking the majority of results at the end of the day.

Saturday, 2 January 2016

2016 Season Begins!

The new 2016 Tennis season is finally amongst us!

It's been a boring wait, for me atleast, for this to come around. I always find it a drag from the end of the main tour in November until the beginning of the new year.

I haven't posted for quite some time, longer then I realised. I'll be going back to my weekly updates, now that the season is starting again.

Unfortunately, we lost one of our tennis bloggers in Sammy, who's blog is on this page. He feel's like what was working for him before in the market's, are no longer working. I wish him all the best in his next adventure.

For myself, I have been busy updating my betting spreadsheet. Which is still not where I want it to be at all, but I added some more functionality to it for myself. January will be an interesting start to the season, to see which players improve and which fall down the pecking order

I've also added the matched betting blog, to my list of blogs I read, mainly for anyone who is interested in creating free profits, or building a bankroll. It's a very easy to navigate site, with a forum full of active users. Hopefully some readers find this useful.

I'll have my first update at the end of the next week for my own betting, as well as talking about the start of the season, whilst also hopefully finding some new content to talk about.