Thursday, 7 January 2016

Mental stability

I thought now would be a good time to create a new post.

The start of this season has been brutal so far, or has it?

I'm currently down -30units (2 units used on every bet I've ever posted on blogabet), for this month so far.

This has basically wiped out my profit for the ATP bets from last year. The variance has been horrible, just yesterday I noticed every single favourite won, so from 14/14. I put odds in based off pinnacle in an accumulator calculator as I was interested in seeing what the odds of this happening would of been offered, the odds of that happening came to just under 43.00

With myself trying to console myself a bit, I relooked over my results for some kind of comfort. Now that I am gathering an ever expanding sample size, the bad results don't look so bad in comparison.

I currently filter my results for my blogabet picks, I could post a lot more but the variance would be even bigger and for now I'm happy filtering them for the site.

So the first thing I have done is put my current average odds, current winrate and another variable into the variance simulator to once again see how bad a bad run can be. It is very possible for me to run breakeven or even losing over a 1000 bets, I tried over 5000 bet sample size and it came out profitable everytime (atleast over the amount of simulations I ran anyway!). However it made me realise (more then I paid attention to beforehand), just how long a period I could actually run bad for.

Secondly, now I have a much bigger sample size of results in my overall results database/spreadsheet since 2014 (not including 2013s results), I decided to take a look at the results again.

Based on a £10k bank with a £100 betsize, on the WTA with no filters applied, I would of hit a huge -£3700 loss before I even made a dime, just to note, I don't have a 10k bank for the WTA! Although that's my goal for each tour once I finally get my house this year.

It now currently stands at £4000 profit and it's currently at it's highest peak. It took over 400 bets before it even hit breakeven.

If I had started a few hundred bets ago, it would of seemed like I was just coining money in for fun as there has been a huge upswing, which is why I love the variance simulator. It bring's your expectations back into line, depending what point in time you start off at, can vastly change how much you make or lose. However as the sample size get's bigger, you form a clearer picture of just how successful or unsuccessful your bets are.

The ATP overall results, again with no filters, same bet size as above, I started off in profit virtually from the start, I hit a small -£500 loss, but within 70 bets I was in profit.

It has hit a peak of just over £5000 profit and currently sits at £2700 profit. However if I had started at the peak recording the results, it would seem like the model does horrible as I would of been down -£3000.

This year I will record well over 1500 bet's without any filters. I am also streamlining my spreadsheet with the help of a online friend, this will hopefully happen very soon (by the end of this week if a solution is implemented). This will allow me to input data about 3-5x quicker, I'll be recording Challengers and most likely ITF events from next week.

This will give me an even bigger sample size to work with from the model, I'm hoping by the end of the year I will have recorded well over 3000 bets from ATP/WTA (Including Qualifiers) and also Challenger tours. The sample size will be even bigger if I combine ITF also.

If the spreadsheet streamlining works, I will be able to filter all my results off one page of data with different variables, which will save me so so much time! At the minute I have to keep different tours and surfaces in different worksheets, which is a lot of work to maintain.

The next step after that, will be finding a way to automate the results and odds capturing from games, in a manner that works for me.

If there's one thing I need to make sure I'm doing at the start of the season. Then it's just not looking at the results as the matches are played! Bad habit I have got back into for the start of the season, rather then just checking the majority of results at the end of the day.


  1. Great post and in essence establishes why bookmaking is such a great business.

    Even when you have the edge needed for long term profits and you hit a bad long streak if you can't handle it, and most won't it's over, you become angry/depressed and that's it, many blogabet tipsters astonish me, 10 months in green, then just one bad red month and they are going into overdrive, panic like it's end of world... you can even see certain trend where best tipsters on blogabet now had amazing first few months with massive profits, which when they hit red didn't affect them that much, if they started with negative months I wonder how many would have just given up.

    Variance simulator is excellent too and you used it perfectly, things could be better, but hell they could be far worse, I can imagine some have edge but begin on bad streak loose, then start chasing and even if they are actually very good tipsters they just give up.

    That's why I like system betting, it has no emotion, it doesn't change bets no matter if it's winning or loosing, you can see if it has the edge if you record closing lines as well.

  2. Hi Dominic,

    Yep I agree, I'm also honest in that it is hard not to get affected by it also.

    I also think a lot of tipsters go on profitable months, you will often find though that a lot of these produce a low number of tips a month who are profitable for the majority of months, even then it may only be over a season. The most important factor should ofcourse be the number of tips, not profitable months.

    It is also why I like system betting - no emotions! :)

    The only thing you have to be wary of (something I have been guilty of, if I'm being honest), is that you don't let emotions start to want to change your system. At the end of the day if you do system or model betting, you have to have 100% faith in it even when bad results come around. For me it's the best method, the more you can take emotion out of betting, the more you can cut out mistakes (such as going on tilt).

    The variance simulator is indeed a great little tool! I do agree that there are some really talented tipsters, however as you said, a period of bad results and they give up. This is probably the hardest thing to overcome as a tipster (or one of them).

    As a tipster myself now, I can say that there is nothing more depressing then seeing losing results over a period of time. It's very difficult to train your mind not to think negatively when this happens.