Friday, 12 February 2016

January & February Update + Blogabet update

Hi all,

Well, what a rollercoaster of a start to the new season. Ever heard of Alton Towers, heard of the ride Oblivion? You know, the one with the near vertical drop?

Yea that one. Well I might as well have based my results on that ride to the start of the new season!

January was horrific, I can't remember the exact figure but I believe I hit -38 or-40 units of profit in January alone! The month ended at a -20 units loss.

I was originally going to make a post about a week ago, complaining about my betting life and how cruel the variance gods had been etc etc. I guess I just wanted to make myself feel a bit better!

Anyway, after repeatedly telling myself it was just variance, despite knowing this, the results have had a remarkable turn around so far, as I write this, I am currently +20 units in profit for the start of February, two bad results today though meant I once again have not broken the 100+ profit barrier..yet!

T.Babos serving for the match and losing and R.Bautista-Agut losing from having 5 match points. Ha, I laugh in the face of such adversity! Why? Because results like this were happening on a daily basis for the last 4 weeks, today was a cakewalk after a good week of results.

To sum up January:

This is how I felt in January.

And this... how I'm feeling at the start of February.

Blogabet results currently stand at +95 units of profit with a yield of +6%, this is currently based on 805 results from my paid service.

Now onto my spreadsheet, below is a graph of the overall results, I have now recorded just over 1900 results, that's something like 500 picks I recorded in January alone I believe. Mainly grandslam matches, qualifying matches for that event and Challenger events.

February I haven't recorded as much with the other tours, especially Challenger, it's been a bit too time intensive at the moment to record Challenger games, on top of having to handle 5 ATP + WTA tours, posting picks and updating results. That's without my other work I do.

See that big rise and fall, that was practically done by men's results in the Aussie Open. I've had a worry that my model may not calculate 5 set matches accurately enough, I still need more data but so far I'm not instilled with the confidence I have with other results I have recorded.

WTA results however were positive for the aussie open. As always, I'll be gathering more data and probably waiting until the US Open before I get involved with WTA Picks, possibly I may venture itno them for Wimbledon.

From what I've seen, favourites tend to be under-priced in grandslam events so far. I'll continue my work and see what crops up a bit further in to the season.

That's about it for now, oh, I have started to trade again - based on my picks actually. I'm taking it nice and slow though to begin with, 1st set only in matches, however I am not having anywhere near the mental breakdown of  before when it comes to chucking money into a trade, when it goes wrong.

It's been very refreshing, however I have said this before only to implode so I'm just going to see how I get on for the next 2 months then post where I'm at with that side of things.

Next week I'm away for a relaxing weekend with my Fiancee and dog. I'll be taking my laptop so I can post picks for my service, however I intend to just be doing that so I actually spend a bit of time off the damn thing for once!

Until the next post!