Thursday, 24 March 2016

Nick Blackwell vs Chris Eubank Jnr

Hi all,

I am looking forward to this fight for two reasons.

One is because Nick Blackwell is one of my current favourite fights and secondly, because the odd's on this match-up are just ridiculous imo.

Blackwell can be had at around 8.70 on Pinnacle, which is laughable.

I can not believe just how short Chris Eubank Jnr's (CEJ) price is for this fight.

I was expected him to be around 1.30 on the Exchange, to see him at virtually half that price instead is just insanity.

Now here is why:

In his last fight he fough Gary O'Sullivan. Even O'Sullivan wasn't such an underdog if I remember correctly. His last few results flattered him (although he does punch hard!).

I watch a lot of boxing and I would lke to think I am adept enough at knowing what style beat's what, how certain boxer's will fight, if they can adapt, skills etc etc.

Let's break it down further.

Nick Blackwell didn't have any amateur experience. He was throwin in the deep-end for his career, many times fighting on short notice and against fighters far better, experiene, proper promotor's behind them etc.

He fought Martin Murray in his 9th pro fight, who has had  4 world title shots. He fought BJS in his 14th fight and that was a bit closer then the official scorecards (imo), he pushed him hard later on in that fight. BJS is now the WBO Middleweight champion of the world.

Blackwell has also fought Max Bursak - who will be fighting BJS next. In that fight he dropped Bursak away from home and imo was robbed as he won that fight. I think quite a lot of people agree on that, against my opinion.

Bursak is/was European level at least and fringe world level.

Blackwell also won against John Ryder vs TKO about 3 fight's ago. He was being outboxed but started to come on strong, again he was against a very good technical boxer. Ryder also lost to BJS but by a wafer thin decision. I personally had Ryder winning that fight by 1 round, however it was that close, you could argue for either fighter or it being a draw.

Ryder and BJS both have better technical ability then CEJ and Blackwell beat one and was competitive against the other winning rounds. In only his 14th pro fight remember (against BJS).

Blackwell is a better, younger fighter then O'Sullivan, he has done nothing but improve and now has a proper team, trains full-time and has Gary Lockett in his corner - who I do rate as a decent trainer.

Why does all this matter?

Whilst I know the 'triangle theory' in boxing doesn't always work, we can analyse styles and results together, if you look at it objectively.

Eubank Jnr is not BJS. He lost virtually all of the first 6 rounds against him and again, imo the fight was a little wider then the final judges scorecards, should not have been a split decision. CEJ is not a technical boxer.

He doesn't have the boxing ability BJS has or Ryder and Blackwell still managed to win rounds vs BJS and Ryder before winning by T/KO.

I don't rate Jnr as a boxer, he is more of a brawler/puncher but he does have good athletic upper body movement. However he is wild and open quite often.

Considering O'Sullivan threw not  a lot of punches in their fight and was pretty stationary, I was surprised to see CEJ (Chris Eubank Jnr) blowing fairly heavily around round 5 as he threw a lot of punches - too many. To be fair to him, his recovery power is/was excellent and he wasn't as tired as first appeared, however he likes to fight at his pace and that fight suited him perfectly.

He in general does not like to fight at a high pace.

Nick Blackwell will almost certainly push him hard from rounds 5-6 onwards (I expect it to go the distance by the way). He is a better boxer  then O'Sullivan and CEJ just isn't that much better in the boxing department then Blackwell.

Blackwell's last two fight's were not his best performances, at all.

Against Damon Jones he was being outboxed, however once again he started to come on strong and it proved to be the case. He ended up knocking out Jones. Jones whilst showing some lovely boxing, clearly didn't have the power to hold off Blackwell and also started to tire quite a lot.

Blackwell against Arnfield, ate uppercuts for fun. This is one of CEJ's best shot's imo. He must not allow these to land at a regular rate in this fight and for CEJ this is the shot, imo, that he should look to try and land, hard and early if he want's to get Blackwell's respect and make him think twice about pressuring.

If Blackwell can get his jab going, he will cause CEJ a lot of problems. CEJ seems to deal with a good jab with about the same ability as Carl Froch, which isn't great.

However, if he negates his jab, it will be a lot lot harder to win this fight.

Regardless, given the above, I cannot see how his price can be @ 8.70+ on Pinnacle or even on the Exchanges. Give the hype around CEJ I fully expected Blackwell to be around 4.00-5.00 on Betfair as I knew CEJ would be priced up as a heavy favourite. I would of taken Blackwell on even at 5s, but at 5s+ it's just too out of line with where his price should be.

Considering who Blackwell has faced and how he has faired. I just can't see how his price can be what it is.

I'm not saying Blackwell will win, however I am confident this fight will be closer then the odds. At the prices quoted, Blackwell as match winner/outright winner is absolutely the value pick for me in this matchup.

Blackwell is available at 6s on Bet365 for anyone without access to pinnaclesports and will be around 8s-9 on Betfair.

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

Long time no update - Blogabet Feb/March Update!

Hi all,

It's once again been practically a month since my last update.

Blogabet results are going well, I am now currently standing at +148 units profit for a 7% Yield over 1050 picks.

After a slow start to the year, things have definitely picked up in February. I had a really good week last week for the Indian Wells event, as the Masters event's tend to be quite tight for finding value but there were quite a lot of decent matches to find it.

I do expect the profit to slow down sooner rather then later, it's been a nice upswing however I'm always looking to prepare for the next inevitable down swing. Hopefully it won't be just around the corner, however you never know!

In sad news, I will be selling my gaming laptop soon as still looking to move to a new home, hopefully sooner rather then later. Normally I would not even consider selling a gaming computer, however it's a luxury at this point in time, rather have the money to go towards the house for when we move.

I'm a little more happy with  blogabet at the moment, I've had a few customers who seem happy with the service and have been following me for the last few months, with no complaint's or moans about the downswings (Thanks guys!). I always try to keep them updated now and again of what I'm up to. I have really appreciated no one getting on my back when I had a poor run of results with the bad variance. Clearly they know what to expect and I think it helps that I have made this clear on my blogabet page.

Less gaming time means more time doing other things, hopefully more time writing some more meaninful blog posts for starters!